New England is well ahead of schedule as the Drake Maye/Mike Vrabel rebuild--originally expected to be a multi-year project--has leaped forward due to adequate offensive line play, Maye’s development under offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels and the “Vrabel Guys” brought in on defense stepping up.
With these increased expectations, the Patriots are midway through a critical four game stretch where it will be vital to stockpile victories against other rebuilding franchises. New England already dispatched the eternally reloading but never fully rebuilding New Orleans Saints and then the struggling Tennessee Titans in the “don’t call it a revenge game” last week.
The Patriots have returned home to Gillette Stadium after three consecutive road wins to host the 2-5 Cleveland Browns and then are home again next week to face the maddeningly inconsistent 3-3 Atlanta Falcons.
The schedule gets tougher with a trip to Tampa to face Baker Mayfield and the Bucs and a matchup in Cincinnati against Joe Flacco and the resurgent Bengals sandwiched around home games against Jersey’s finest, aka the Jets and Giants before the bye week.
Last Week:
The New England Patriots won last week against an inferior opponent, but continued their trend in 2025 of slow starts on both sides of the ball. Tennessee jumped out to a 10-3 first quarter lead and then 13-10 before halftime before the offense kicked into gear before halftime and the defense shut down the Titans.
What was impressive was the Patriots getting Rhamondre Stevenson back on track as he piled up 88 yards on the ground on 18 carries and his third rushing touchdown of the season. The offensive line set the tone early, and although their first drive stalled in the red zone and the second drive led to a punt, the offense was close to breaking things open.
The Patriots hit their stride with three straight drives sandwiched around halftime for touchdowns that ended the game for all intents. Maye and Stevenson carried the offense as the points piled up.
The defense allowed two field goals and a long touchdown pass on Tennessee’s first three drives. After that, the defense responded. The Titans were stopped before halftime and New England led 24-13 by the time they had the ball back. On first down, Cam Ward was pressured by K’Lavon Chaisson, lost the ball, and Chaisson returned for a touchdown and it was game over.
Maye finished 21 of 23 passing for 222 yards and two touchdowns for a 135.9 quarterback rating. He also added 62 yards on the ground on eight rushes. However, he also didn’t slide on a scramble, was tackled and hit his head on the ground, and had to be replaced by Joshua Dobbs for a time.
How to Watch/Listen to the Game:
After weeks of the second-level announcers on CBS (other than the Sunday Night Football Bills game with Mike Tirico and Cris Collinsworth), the Patriots game will be broadcast by FOX and can be seen locally on WFXT-TV Channel 25 in the greater Boston market and on WNAC-TV Channel 64 in the greater Providence market.
Again, far from the A or B announcing team, Fox is sending over Chris Myers (Popularity peaked in the 1990s on ESPN) who will be handling play-by-play duties with former Denver Broncos and unabashed Patriots hater Mark Schlereth as the color analyst. Kristina Pink will work from the sidelines.
Sunday’s game will be broadcast locally on the radio by Bigelow Tea hawking play-by-play broadcaster Bob Socci calling the action along with former Patriots quarterback and Sports Hub personality Scott Zolak providing his usual energy while delivering what passes for analysis.
Key Stats:
New England’s offense is eighth in the league in points scored (25.9/g) and 15th in total yards through seven weeks (all stats from Pro-Football-Reference.com, unless otherwise noted). After the last two seasons, this is a remarkable improvement.
With a competent offensive line, a few decent wide receivers, and a developing Drake Maye, New England is eighth overall in total passing yards and third in Net Yards per Attempt. Whatever the statistics, Maye is getting a passing grade.
New England, while eighth in passing yards, is 24th in pass attempts, showing extraordinary efficiency in the passing game. They are tenth with ten passing touchdowns and second fewest interceptions with just two. Maye leads the NFL with a 75.2% completion rate and now is topping the league with his 116.4 quarterback rating while averaging 11.5 yards per completion and 249.1 yards per game.
However, despite a resurgence last week, New England is 21st in rushing yards with just 724 yards on the ground and a dismal 3.7 yards per rush average. Maye has accounted for 200 yards and second to Rhamondre Stevenson’s 245 yards.
On defense, the emphasis by head coach Mike Vrabel and interim defensive coordinator Zak Kuhr (Defensive Coordinator Terrell Williams has been away from the team on medical leave) on controlling the opponent’s running game has been phenomenal. Through seven games, they’ve yet to allow an opposing running back to more than 50 yards or more in a game.
The team defense is now fifth in points allowed and 11th in total yards allowed. The Patriots have allowed the third fewest rushing yards through seven weeks (540 yards) and opponents have averaged just 3.4 yards per rush.
The passing defense--which struggled early in the season before Christian Gonzalez got healthy--has improved dramatically with his return to health. Despite their early struggles allowing 333 and 297 yards passing the first two weeks, since week three no team has topped 250 net yards in the air against New England.
The New England pass defense was 26th in passing yards allowed heading into week five. Heading into week eight, they’ve improved to 24th. Big plays have skewed the numbers, as they’re 29th in net yards allowed per attempt, but 13th in passing touchdowns allowed and 12th in interceptions.
NE Offense vs CLE Defense:
The Patriots are catching the Browns with their confidence-levels high. The Browns had their second win of the season as they dominated the Dolphins winning 31-6. The defense--playing at a high level all season--allowed just a pair of field goals as they picked off Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa three times, including a pick-six.
New England has to be concerned with a drop-off this week returning home riding a four-game win streak including three consecutive road wins at Buffalo, New Orleans and Tennessee.
New England is riding high on offense in 2025, with Drake Maye making quick decisions and improved accuracy in the pocket. He remains dangerous when he tucks the ball and runs, but offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels has worked hard to have Maye keep his eyes downfield and he made some great plays last week finding his receivers both stepping up inside the pocket and remaining accurate outside the pocket.
Last week saw the New England offense struggle early on in the game, but found its groove in the second and third quarters. With the running game contributing, they converted five of 12 third downs and were two of two on fourth downs.
After week seven, they are back up to 10th in the league on third down conversion percentage (41.5%) and are second-best on fourth down (10 of 12 conversions for an 83.3%) as the dual-threat of Maye’s strong arm and legs makes opposing defenses uncomfortable.
The Red Zone should continue to be a point of emphasis for the offense. New England is up to 14th in Red Zone TD percentage (up from 16th) with 14 of 23 trips resulting in touchdowns. As they play better teams later in the season (Atlanta, Tampa Bay, Cincinnati, Buffalo and Baltimore) New England cannot afford to leave points on the board like they have in the Red Zone so far through seven weeks.
Cleveland shut down Miami as they held Tua and Quinn Ewers to 153 yards passing and piled up four sacks. Cleveland’s defense led by defensive coordinator and Bill Belichick pal Jim Schwartz attacks offenses with a strong pass rush and smothering secondary.
A sign of the inept offense, the defense is first in fewest yards allowed but only 13th in points allowed, as opponents have had short drives. The defense has allowed the fewest first downs, the third fewest passing yards, the fourth fewest rushing yards, fewest yards per rushing attempt (3.3 yards/attempt) and the fewest yards allowed per drive.
Whatever way you spin it, this is an elite defense and a huge test for Maye and the Patriots.
Pass Offense:
Cleveland’s pass rush starts with Myles Garrett. The most disruptive defender in the NFL, Garrett is a menace in the passing game as he has the athleticism and strength to be one of the best pass rushers (five sacks) but also creates turnovers, knocking the ball away from the quarterback.
Garrett is a heck of a test for rookie left tackle Will Campbell, but Schwartz will move him all over the defense so he will look for any weak spot and attack it relentlessly. So not just veteran Morgan Moses at right tackle, but the interior linemen rookie Jared Wilson and veterans Garrett Bradbury and Mike Onwenu will have their turns to block Garrett.
The Browns also boast impressive 2025 first round draft pick Mason Graham and veteran Maliek Collins on the inside pushing the pocket. Opposite Garrett, former Bucs first round pick Joe Tryon-Shoyinka has been a bust and lost snaps to Alex Wright and Mike Hall.
Tackles Morgan Moses and rookie Will Campbell have continued to improve as the season progresses in pass protection but last week the offensive line allowed pressure and four sacks to Tennessee. Giving Drake Maye time to operate in the pocket is vital for the offense to move the ball Both the rookie and the veteran at tackle will have to step up this week.
The Patriots continued to have success in the short and intermediate passing game last week and the running game continued to open up downfield passes. Maye continues to spread the ball around on offense, with Stefon Diggs (seven receptions for 69 yards) and Hunter Henry (four receptions for 33 yards) again his primary targets.
Kayshon Boutte again had a great catch in the end zone before halftime. While only having two targets, Boutte again made the most of them with the 39-yard touchdown and a 16-yard reception.
Mack Hollins added 27 and 22 yard receptions last week while DeMario Douglas pulled in three short passes. Austin Hooper added a Red Zone touchdown. Rookie Kyle Williams again was the odd man out, with just a single target and one of the few incompletions thrown by Maye.
At some point, Williams will need to step up, but for now New England is able to attack defenses vertically with Boutte and Hollins, but if New England can have the running backs pile up yards like Stevenson did last week, they can draw in the safeties and open up some big plays.
The Browns’ pass defense is another strong unit. Let’s face it, pass rush, interior line, linebackers, cornerbacks, safeties--there’s no weaknesses here. Linebackers Devin Bush, Jerome Baker and rookie Carson Schwesinger can all blitz or show pressure and drop in coverage.
At cornerback, Denzel Ward has consistently been a number one shutdown cornerback able to play bump and run man or drop in zone and use his quickness to jump routes. Opposite him, Tyson Campbell was recently acquired from Jacksonville for Greg Newsome and played his second game in Cleveland last week.
Campbell never lived up to his high draft position, much like Newsome. Both teams are hoping the change of scenery allows the cornerback to thrive. Campbell was more than solid last week against Miami after a rough first game, with his pick-six the highlight along with a pair of pass breakups in coverage.
Against Miami last week, the Cleveland secondary was dominant. Jaylen Waddle was held to just one reception as he got a faceful of Denzel Ward much of the game. Cleveland loves to play man coverage, playing man coverage a league-leading 40.5% of the time per Sharp Football Analysis.
At safety, Grant Delpit is the missile flying in to take away the short passing game with vicious hits. Ronnie Hickman covers the downfield and is an able tackler and Rayshawn Jenkins is the third safety giving the secondary solid depth.
Run Offense:
The Patriots continued to be inconsistent in the running game in 2025 although last week looked like the first signs of life. Rhamondre Stevenson first did not put the football on the ground and carried the load with 18 rushes for 88 yards. Without Antonio Gibson (torn ACL), rookie TreVeyon Henderson still had a small role on offense.
Practice squad running back Terrell Jennings got a look in garbage time and added 18 yards rushing on five carries. Henderson has struggled with pass blocking and has been hesitant attacking the hole. Hopefully, he will continue to develop and be able to contribute in the passing and running game in the second half of the season.
The New England offensive line has a tough matchup this week. Garrett, as well as being a great pass rusher, is a beast against the run. No one sets an edge like he can and Maliek Collins and rookie Mason Graham are stout inside.
Rookie Carson Schwesinger, who inexplicably was still available in round two, has been a tackling machine in the middle. He is athletic and quick and has been an instant impact player against the run. The secondary is full of able tacklers and fellow linebackers Jerome Baker and Devin Bush dominated the Dolphins’ offensive line.
Cleveland has only allowed a team to rush for 100 or more yards twice in 2025. What does not bode well for New England is that the speed backs have been the ones with success against Cleveland. Devon Achane, one of the speediest running backs in the league, had 82 yards on just 13 carries and busted one for 46 yards.
The week prior, in Pittsburgh, smaller and speedier back Jaylen Warren had 52 yards on 11 carries. In their week four loss to Detroit, big back David Montgomery struggled (nine rushes for 12 yards) while speedster Jahmyr Gibbs went for 91 yards on 15 targets.
In week two, the ultimate bruising back, Derrick Henry, had just 23 yards on 11 rushes against the swarming Cleveland run defense.
Stevenson is likely looking at a tough test. If Henderson was playing better, he would be the logical option to use his speed against the bruising Browns defense. This week will be a test of how much he is trusted by head coach Mike Vrabel and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels as he is the obvious choice to be the lead back this week.
CLE Offense vs NE Defense
As strong as the Browns have been on defense, their offense has been responsible for dragging them down to a 2-5 record. Joe Flacco didn’t last long at quarterback and was shipped out to Cincinnati after being benched for rookie third-round draft pick Dillon Gabriel.
Gabriel is older than Drake Maye and played at UCF, Oklahoma and Oregon. The native Hawaiian fell to the third round (I was shocked he fell out of the top-40 picks) more due to age and height (5-foot-11) more than actual production in college. Gabriel is smart, throws with anticipation and has a little bit of that “Baker Mayfield Dawg” in him between the sidelines.
The most written about quarterback in Cleveland is backup Shadeur Sanders. Many pundits had the Son of Deion projected as the second pick of the draft and he instead fell to the fifth round. He’s solidly behind Gabriel (for good reason).
The Browns are 30th in points scored and 30th in yards on offense through seven weeks. The opposite of the efficient New England passing offense, Cleveland is first in pass attempts but a dismal 30th in passing yards and 31st in passing touchdowns. The running game drives the offense as they are only 28th in rushing yards and average as they have just 648 yards rushing and a 3.7 yards per attempt average.
Pass Defense:
The Patriots have improved each week in the passing game after laying an egg against the Raiders in week one without starting cornerback Christian Gonzalez. Last week, with injuries at safety, help was slow for Marcus Jones and Tennessee rookie wide receiver Chimere Dike struck for a 38-yard touchdown.
Dike finished with 70 yards, but the rest of the Titans were held in check. After the first quarter touchdown, the Titans didn’t complete a pass longer than 15 yards the rest of the game. Again, the Patriots overcame another rough start in the passing game defense.
One thing that stood out was the heavy zone defense played against the Titans. It’s hard to argue with the choice since it worked, but against Cleveland having more players in the box to slow the running game and challenging Gabriel with tight man coverage could be the winning game plan this week.
According to Sharp Football Analysis, the Patriots are still ninth in the NFL in man coverage rate so far in 2025 with 30.2% of their snaps in man and 66.5% in zone. They’re middle of the pack in blitz rate (22.9% - 15th).
Last week, the defense teed off on a rookie quarterback behind a shaky offensive line. The formula could be the same this week. K’Lavon Chaisson had a pair of sacks, including a fumble scoop and score special against the Titans. Milton Williams and Harold Landry both had a sack last week.
The New England pass rush should be in position to dominate with Cleveland’s struggling veteran offensive line. Jack Conklin should be in the lineup after clearing concussion protocol. While aging and struggling to stay healthy, he may be over the hill but he was once the best right tackle in the NFL and will be protecting lefty Dillon Gabriel’s blind side.
The left side is weak spot with much-traveled left tackle Cam Robinson manning the spot with disappointment Dawand Jones on injured reserve.
The interior of the offensive line was a long-time strength for Cleveland, as veterans Wyatt Teller, Joel Bitonio and Ethan Pocic have held down the fort for years. However, age is taking its toll and especially in pass protection they have struggled mightily. Without the next generation of offensive linemen being on the roster, Cleveland is riding it out with the struggling veterans.
Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis should feast on the lackluster playmakers in Cleveland. Jerry Jeudy is their top receiver and both he and tight end David Njoku are the closest things to dangerous weapons in a bare cupboard. Njoku missed last week and is still limited with a knee injury but Jeudy is off the injury report.
Rookie Harold Fannin has picked up the slack for Njoku, emerging as a favorite for fellow third-round pick Gabriel. Fannin was the only receiver to have more than two receptions and top 25 yards receiving against the Dolphins. Second-year receivers Jamari Thrash and Malachi Corley have had to pick up the slack at the wide receiver position alongside rookie Isaiah Bond.
Bond, from Texas, was expected to go in the second round but went undrafted due to an off-field allegation. Once cleared, he signed with wide receiver needy Cleveland and is getting immediate playing time. Marcus Jones should be first in line to match-up with the speedy slot receiver.
Run Defense:
The New England run defense had one of its best performances of 2025 last week, which is saying something since they’ve been strong all season. They held Tennessee to just 39 yards rushing on a dozen carries for just over a 3.0 yards per carry average.
New England has held five of seven opponents under 75 yards rushing in 2025. Only Carolina (129 yards) and Buffalo (118 yards) have topped 100 yards on the ground. That has been a significant part of the defense keeping opposing offenses on the sidelines instead of mounting long drives.
For Cleveland, last week was one of their best games running the football with rookie Quinshon Judkins piling up 84 yards on 25 carries and scoring three touchdowns. They’ll be trying to carry over that momentum, but they were going against the 32nd ranked run defense of the Dolphins (i.e. dead last) and facing New England’s third ranked run defense.
Last week was just the third time Cleveland topped 100 yards rushing, as their offensive line has struggled to make space for Judkins. Judkins was teammates with TreVeyon Henderson at Ohio State last year, but with Dylan Sampson averaging 2.0 yards per rush and Jerome Ford more of a third-down receiving and blocking back, he’s been forced to carry the load.
For the Patriots, Milton Williams and Christian Barmore have continued attacking up the field and penetrating to blow up running plays. With Khyris Tonga filling the middle, teams have had little space to run. Linebackers Robert Spillane, Jack Gibbens and now Jahlani Tavai (taking snaps from Christian Ellis) have excelled in cleaning up running backs.
Safety Jaylinn Hawkins has been a major contributor in the run defense coming up from the safety position but he has missed time and Kyle Dugger has picked up those snaps the last two games and should start again this week against Cleveland. Dugger did not come off the field last week and should expect the same this week.
Other Factors:
New England Patriots rookie sixth-round draft pick kicker Andy Borregales has improved each week after a shaky start to his career in New England. The rookie appears to have turned a corner and is kicking with confidence. Last week, he connected on all four extra points and his one field goal attempt.
Punter Bryce Baringer remains solid and, I guess, the rookie long snapper, Julian Ashby, has been fine. Still not much to report here, which is good news.
Efton Chism has been on the active roster to return kicks and has been fine. Marcus Jones remains the league-leader in punt returns averaging 23.1 yards on his nine returns. Teams have taken notice and he’s had just one return opportunity over the past two weeks.
For Cleveland, Andre Szmyt handles the kicking duties and is 10 of 12 on field goals and 11of 12 on extra points.
Punter Corey Bojorquez started out with New England as an undrafted free agent in 2018 but lost the competition and ended up in Buffalo for three seasons, a stop off in Green Bay, and had been in Cleveland for four years. He gets his work in, leading the NFL in punts with 38 so far in 2025 after leading the league with 89 punts last year.
Cleveland has struggled to find an effective returner in 2025. Veteran DeAndre Carter landed on injured reserve after four games and have churned through a rotating group returning kicks and punts since week five, with minimal impact. Both backup running backs Dylan Sampson and Jerome Ford got a chance to return kickoffs and young receivers Isaiah Bond and Gage Larvadain to return punts.
Game Pick:
The Patriots continue to churn through bad teams and racking victories. This is another chance with the 2-5 Browns coming to Foxborough.
The Browns have an anemic offense and a defense that has been put in bad situations by the offense. Since turning to Dillon Gabriel, the offense is at least not turning the ball over, and that has helped the Browns’ defense.
I want to believe that this Patriots team can rack up some wins against bad teams with this easy schedule and this should be another very winnable game. That said, this is the best defense that Drake Maye will have faced this year, and he will have his work cut out for him to drive the offense down the field consistently.
Add onto that, Gabriel has played like a mature veteran--which he should be as he is a six-year veteran at three different universities before coming to the NFL. Gabriel is better than the national media thinks, and this game should be a close, low-scoring affair.
I’ll say take the under, the Browns to cover, but New England to pull out a hard fought win straight-up.
BROWNS 14 @ PATRIOTS (-7) 17
Browns vs the Spread
Patriots Moneyline
Under 40.5 points
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