A hated divisional opponent on a short week with the nationally televised prime-time game on Amazon’s Thursday Night Football after a huge road win against one of the best teams in the NFC?
Holy trap game, Batman!
The New England Patriots’ continued to find a way to win in week ten, finding a way on both sides of the ball to overcome mistakes and a slow start to defeat a legitimate first-place team. New England is all alone in first place in the AFC East at 8-2 with a one-and-a-half game lead over the Buffalo Bills, who inexplicably laid an egg on the road against the sad-sack Miami Dolphins.
While Buffalo is going to remain in the race for the AFC East, and still have a head-to-head match-up on December 14th against the Patriots, this was a gift for New England. The Bills were clearly caught in a trap game after a scintillating victory the prior week against their long-time nemesis, Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.
New England remains ahead of schedule on their post-dynasty rebuild as head coach Mike Vrabel and quarterback Drake Maye lead one of the most entertaining and exciting teams to watch in the NFL.
Yes, the Patriots have clearly taken advantage of a last-place schedule, some above-average offensive line play spearheaded by draft picks and veteran free agents, quarterback Drake Maye’s development under offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels and the “Vrabel Guys” brought in via free agency on defense stepping up big time in the front seven, but adding a road win against the Bucs last Sunday to their October 5th win in Buffalo on Sunday Night Football, and even the most skeptical (*hand raised, yes, that has been me!) have to give this team their due.
With these increased expectations, the Patriots face a min-break before the bye with this Thursday night game against the Jets. After the mini-break is a matchup in Cincinnati against Joe Flacco and the resurgent Bengals offense (and quietly improving defense) and then at home against Jersey’s finest, aka the Giants before the bye week in week 14.
Last Week:
The New England Patriots won against a real Super Bowl contender on the road against a team with a very good defense and MVP caliber quarterback in Baker Mayfield. Once again, the New England defense came out flat-footed as Mayfield drove the Buccaneers’ offense down the field for a touchdown that seemed ominously easy.
Fortunately, the defense settled in and forced three straight punts including two three-and-outs. At the end of the first quarter, the New England offense, which had struggled again early, broke out with an explosive play as rookie Kyle Williams made the most of his opportunity with Kayshon Boutte out injured, and got behind his defender and turned an intermediate pass into a 72-yard touchdown and tied the game.
In the second quarter, the Bucs finally started moving the ball again, highlighted by another chunk play by rookie sensation Emeka Egbuka. However, the offense stalled and they settled for a 36-yard Chase McLaughlin field goal.
New England didn’t give the ball back to Tampa, embarking on a fourteen play, 78-yard drive which culminated with a fourth-and-one toe-tap reception by Stefon Diggs to give New England a lead they would never give up.
Getting the ball after the half, New England saw another rookie step-up with a big play as running back TreVeyon Henderson busted a run for 55 yards and a touchdown to make it 21-10 New England.
After trading punts, the Buccaneers put together a solid drive, ending in a ten-yard touchdown to Tez Johnson. The two-point conversion failed as Tampa tried some trickery that fooled no one on the New England defense.
With the lead at five, New England turned it over on downs and Tampa had a chance to drive to take the lead. Instead, the defense held strong and forced a punt. After trading three and outs, the Patriots looked ready to bury the Bucs after Maye found Mack Hollins for 54 yards. However, on third and two Maye threw an interception in the end zone trying to squeeze it into Mack Hollins.
With a chance to take the lead, the Patriots’ defense made a huge stop on fourth down to get the ball back inside two minutes. On second-and-nine, Henderson busted around the left end, sprung free by fellow rookie Will Campbell and a devastating block from nose tackle/fullback Khyris Tonga for a 69 yard touchdown.
While Tampa added a garbage-time touchdown to make it 28-23 with 33 seconds remaining, Stefon Diggs covered the onside kick attempt on the hands team to ice the game and send New England home after beating one of the best teams of the NFC.
How to Watch/Listen to the Game:
After having CBS’ top team of Jim Nantz on play-by-play and Tony Romo on color on Sunday, the Patriots have their second primetime game on Thursday night. The game will be broadcast by Amazon Prime Video and can be seen in the Boston area on WCVB (Channel 5) and in the Providence area on WLNE ABC6.
Calling the game, Al Michaels will handle play-by-play duties with Kirk Herbstreit as the color analyst. Kaylee Hartung will work from the sidelines.
The Thursday Night game will be broadcast to a national audience by Westwood One Sports. Tom McCarthy will call the game with former Patriot and three-time Super Bowl Champion Devin McCourty providing analysis.
Finally, Thursday’s game will be broadcast locally on the radio by Bigelow Tea hawking play-by-play broadcaster Bob Socci calling the action along with former Patriots quarterback and Sports Hub personality Scott Zolak providing his usual "whatever that is" that passes for analysis in these parts.
Key Stats:
The Patriots are now 3-2 at Gillette Stadium and an amazing 5-0 on the road in 2025 as they welcome the Jets to Foxboro. The current seven-game winning streak in 2025 is the longest streak since 2021 when the Patriots had a seven-game winning streak from Week 7 to Week 13 in the last season they made the playoffs with Bill Belichick and rookie Mac Jones (which feels like a million years ago).
New England’s offense moved up 0.2 points per game to averaging 26.5 points per game after the Tampa win but fell from seventh to eighth in the league in points scored, However, they moved up one spot from 12th in total yards to 1th (all stats from Pro-Football-Reference.com, unless otherwise noted).
The best news may be that Drake Maye was only sacked one last week against Tampa. Currently, New England is ninth overall in total passing yards at 2,414 and third in the more important Net Yards per Attempt at 7.5 yards per attempt.
Maye, after a rough outing completion-wise in the rain in Tampa, has dropped to second in the league with a 71.7% completion rate (which is still spectacular) and has 19 touchdowns passing to just five interceptions. The Red Zone interception versus Tampa wasn’t costly, but Maye is still only 23 years old and has just 22 career starts and is progressing extremely well in his development.
New England, while ninth in passing yards, is 27th in the league in pass attempts, showing Josh McDaniels’ commitment to the running game to set up play action and the extraordinary efficiency and big play capability in the passing game.
They are sixth in the league with 19 passing touchdowns and tenth fewest interceptions thrown with just five through ten games. Maye is sixth in the league with his 113.9 quarterback rating while averaging 8.9 yards per attempt and 12.5 yards per completion which are both second overall in the league behind Sam Darnold.
However, despite a resurgence in the passing game, New England have allowed Maye to be sacked 34 times and are still struggling to run the ball consistently. They are up to 16th in rushing yards with just 1,177 yards on the ground after rushing for 176 yards last week--although almost all came on just two rushes. They finally pushed their yards per rush average up over 4.0 and are 23rd in the league with their 4.1 yards per attempt average.
On defense, the emphasis by head coach Mike Vrabel and interim defensive coordinator Zak Kuhr (Defensive Coordinator Terrell Williams has been on medical leave much of training camp and the season) on controlling the opponent’s running game has been phenomenal. It took until week ten before they allowed an opposing running back to rush for more than 50 yards
in a game.
The team defense is sixth in the NFL in points allowed and eighth in total yards allowed. The Patriots have allowed the fewest rushing yards through ten weeks (792 yards) and the fewest attempts (210), fewest rushing touchdowns (3), and the fourth fewest yards per attempt at 3.8 yards per rush allowed against New England this season.
The passing defense--which struggled during the 1-2 stretch to open the season before Christian Gonzalez got healthy and returned to the lineup--has improved dramatically since their number one cornerback got on the field. Baker Mayfield was the first quarterback to top 250 net yards passing since week two against New England and the Bucs were the first offense since Buffalo in week five to top 300 total yards of offense.
The New England pass defense was 26th in passing yards allowed heading into week five. After ten weeks, they’ve improved to 21st in passing yards allowed. They’ve cut down somewhat on the big chunk plays allowed and are 22nd in net yards allowed per attempt (after being as bad as 29th in the league).
NE Offense vs NY Defense:
The Patriots are facing a New York Jets team also coming off a short turnaround to play on Thursday night. As usual, the name of the game in New York is turmoil. The Jets had an explosive trade deadline on their bye week after winning their first game of the season and traded away their two best (and most expensive) young players by shipping cornerback Ahmed “Sauce” Gardner to the Colts and defensive tackle Quinnen Williams to Dallas.
Credit to rookie head coach Aaron Glenn and his staff as the Jets came out ready to play and beat Cleveland 27-20 for their second consecutive win. Now on a winning streak, the Jets head to Foxboro for their first of two games against the Patriots.
Remarkably, this New York defense has just one turnover forced through their nine games and zero interceptions. The defense is 26th in points allowed and 19th in yards allowed. They are top-ten in passing yards allowed with just 1,717 yards but 25th in rushing yards allowed giving up 1,244 yards so far on the ground.
Last week saw the New England offense start slow but against a quality and aggressive defense they hit on four big plays with three touchdowns combined from explosive rookies Kyle Williams and TreVeyon Henderson (Mack Hollins chipped in with a 50+ yard reception just before Maye’s end zone interception).
After week ten, the Patriots are up one spot to seventh in the league on third down conversion percentage (42.0%) and remain excellent on fourth down (12 of 15 conversions for an 80.0%) ranking third in the league in fourth down conversion percentage. After years of the offense growing so incredibly conservative under head coaches Bill Belichick and Jerod Mayo, the aggressive approach from Mike Vrabel on fourth down is a breath of fresh air.
The Red Zone should continue to be a point of emphasis for the offense. New England struggled again last week with an interception when the offense led by just five points and they needed three more points at bare minimum. New England is just 18th in Red Zone TD percentage (down from 14th a few weeks ago) with just 20 of 35 trips resulting in touchdowns (57.1%).
New York’s defense is 11th in the NFL on third down percentage, allowing just a 34.2% conversion rate (40 of 117). On fourth down, they’ve allowed seven of ten conversions. In the Red Zone, the defense has held strong in 2025 allowing touchdowns on just 18 of 31 trips ranking 13th in the league.
With a mix of veterans and interesting young players, the Jets defense may have traded their two superstars away but are still solid at all three levels. Veteran defensive coordinator Steve Wilks has this unit playing above its individual skill level.
The pass rush with Jermaine Johnson and Will McDonald is a strength while linebackers Jamien Sherwood and Quincy Williams are solid against the run and in zone pass defense. Like the Bucs, the Jets like to blitz and are just below Tampa (30.7%) in blitz rate at 29.5% (per Sharp Football Analysis).
Pass Offense:
The Jet’s pass rush comes at opponents from the edge exclusively now that interior pocket pusher and penetrator Quinnen Williams is in Dallas. However, Will McDonald brought the heat against Cleveland last week piling up four sacks and Jermaine Johnson added another as the edge rushers feasted.
New York made a big deal of benching Quincy Williams the week after his brother Quinnen was traded and started Mykal Walker at linebacker, but they quickly went back to Quincy and he responded with his best game of the season with a sack, five tackles and some big-time plays in coverage.
In the secondary, the Jets last season had arguably the best trio of cornerbacks in the NFL with Gardner (traded to the Colts last week), DJ Reed (who left in free agency to sign in Detroit) and Michael Carter (traded away a few weeks ago to Philadelphia). The Jets signed free agent
Brandon Stephens from Baltimore this offseason, but his play has been up-and-down.
Rookie Azareye’h Thomas, their third-round pick from Florida State, was expected to step in but suffered a scary looking concussion from friendly fire as linebacker Jamien Sherwood knocked him unconscious with a helmet-to-helmet mid-air hit. Thomas has already been ruled out for Thursday night.
With Stephens manning one outside corner and impressive looking midseason pick-up Jarvis Brownlee in the slot (BTW, the Titans look like complete idiots unloading him to New York for a pick swap considering how well he has played in New York and how highly regarded he was league-wide despite dropping to the fifth-round of the 2024 NFL draft after coming out of Louisville), the Jets turned to former Canadian Football League special teams ace Qwan’tez Stiggers.
They also moved safety Malachi Moore to the slot and switched Brownlee to the boundary on occasion after Thomas went out, which is another look to be aware of as Brownlee could struggle against a larger receiver like Mack Hollins.
New York also lost safety Andre Cisco to injury a few weeks ago, but that led to more Malachi Moore and that appears to be an upgrade in the secondary. Tony Adams is the run-support at strong safety. Undrafted free agent Dean Clark from Fresno State has also been in the mix at safety lately subbing for Adams and may get more of a look as he has good size and athleticism and has flashed in coverage of tight ends.
Like Tampa, the defense loves to blitz and will do it on any down and distance. They do like to mix coverages and disguise as Wilks had done with Riverboat Ron in Carolina when he was considered an up-and-coming star before crashing and burning as head coach in Arizona. He seems to have gone back to that more aggressive style this season with Aaron Glenn, with much more disguise and blitzing than he did last year in San Francisco as defensive coordinator.
The New England offensive line gave up some pressure but only one sack last week. Tampa got some hits on Maye and forced him out of the pocket with some pass rush wins, but he used his feet and threw the ball away instead of playing hero ball. Remember, this is still a young quarterback learning when to tuck and run, when to keep his eyes downfield, and when to scramble and take a shot downfield.
Tackles Morgan Moses and rookie Will Campbell have been solid in pass protection and the interior offensive line stepped up with a big test with the disruptive Vita Vea.
The Patriots missed wide receiver Kayshon Boutte against Atlanta in the first half and wondering how they’d replace his production last week was a big question. It looked bad early on against Tampa as Maye missed Mack Hollins on three consecutive throws on the first drive forcing them to punt.
However, Hollins bounced back to lead New England with six receptions for 106 yards including a beautiful 54-yard downfield reception. Stefon Diggs added an amazing toe-tap catch in the end zone on fourth-and-one before halftime and had five catches for 46 yards.
I called out rookie Kyle Williams last week as having no trust or chemistry with Maye and he responded with a 73-yard touchdown catch-and-run showcasing his blazing speed. Demario Douglas took advantage of the time on the field in his diminished role by adding a stumbling and rumbling 26 yard catch-and-run to get New England in the Red Zone last week.
How New England attacks the Jets pass defense is an interesting aspect of the match-up. Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper have a tough matchup with the Jets’ strong linebackers and rookie Malachi Moore looking good in coverage.
At cornerback, Jarvis Brownlee has been great in the slot so whether it is Stiggers, Stephens or trade acquisition Ja’Sir Taylor on the outside, that is where Maye should be looking first. Stephens figures to have a steady dose of coverage on Diggs, so it could be a big day for the New England number one wide receiver.
There have been opportunities against the Jets’ defense for big plays. The pass rush against the terrible Cleveland offensive line last week covered up some downfield plays that five-foot-ten Cleveland quarterback Dillon Gabriel probably couldn’t see downfield.
The trend in 2025 is that the Jets have feasted on sub-par quarterbacks (the overrated Bo Nix, Bryce Young, and Dillon Gabriel) been just okay against okay quarterbacks (Aaron Rodgers, Tua Tagovailoa), and been abused in the passing game by very good quarterbacks (Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield, Dak Prescott and Joe Flacco). Drake Maye should light them and show them what happens when they play a premier passing talent.
The Patriots catch a huge break getting the Jets after they’ve traded away their two best defensive players. They need to take advantage of it early and often and slow the edge rush and attack the boundaries with Diggs, Hollins and maybe a downfield shot or two for Kyle Williams.
Run Offense:
The Patriots continued to be inconsistent in the running game in 2025 although the past three weeks looked like continuous progress. Rhamondre Stevenson had his best game against Tennessee before being injured the next week. Rookie TreVeyon Henderson stepped up against Cleveland (ten rushes for 75 yards), combined with Terrell Jennings for 90 yards on the ground against Atlanta, and broke out last week with 147 yards rushing and two 50+ yard touchdown runs.
However, outside of those two big runs he had just 20 yards on his dozen other rushes. Jenning had five yards on four rushes before leaving injured and D’Ernest Johnson had one yard on his only carry. While the big plays were nice, the inability to punch it into the end zone before the half stood out as the line got no push against the stout Tampa defensive line.
The New England offensive line faces an incredibly inconsistent Jets run defense They completely shut down Pittsburgh (53 yards) and Denver (78 yards) this season but got trucked by the Bills (224 yards), the Cowboys (180 yards) and the Bengals (181 yards). Last week, the Browns had some solid plays in the running game as they controlled the time of possession and rookie Quinshon Judkins had 22 rushes for 75 yards.
What stood out in watching that game is that Malachi Corley, who had a 31-yard gain on a jet sweep versus the Patriots when they played the Browns earlier this season, had two jet sweeps for 16 yards each. Both times they took advantage of the young edge rushers flying into the backfield and not setting the edge.
The Patriots have tried to run this jet sweep action multiple times this season with Demario Douglas in motion from the slot. While it hasn’t been very effective, it has helped the running game. Josh McDaniels should definitely be brushing the dust off the jet sweep and see if Douglas can pop a big run against the Jets.
For New England, with such an aggressive pass rush and often undisciplined, the run game should not just try to pound the ball inside and get positive results. It did not work last week running inside (although, props to Josh McDaniels, it did open up some space over the middle in the play-action passing game again).
TreVeyon Henderson should have the opportunity to get outside and use his speed against the Jets. I would expect to see a few designed screens to him in space to try and slow the edge pass rushers and also run at them with their speed rushes out wide leaving space in the running game.
McDaniels likes to lean on the run early to set-up play action passing later in the game from the same formations. This has worked very well again last week and is a big reason why the offense sometimes takes some time to get moving early on.
This is actually good for New England playing the Jets immediately after Tampa on a short week as there are many similarities in the defensive styles. McDaniels can work some of those same concepts that were successful versus Tampa running to the outside and may break some big plays on Thursday night versus the Jets.
NY Offense vs NE Defense
The Jets offense will be without standout wide receiver Garrett Wilson on Thursday night after he reinjured his knee. Last week, he had three targets and no receptions before leaving the game. The Jets offense currently consists of a heavy dose of running back Breece Hall.
That’s it. It’s Breece Hall in the run game and Hall as their top receiving threat without Wilson. Justin Fields once again looked incapable of completing a forward pass last week as he was six for 11 passing for 54 yards and an interception. His chunk yardage was 42 yards on a screen pass where Hall made a couple of tacklers miss and impressive rookie right tackle Armond Membou was tossing Browns defenders to the ground up ahead of him.
Fields had five completions for 12 yards to his tight ends and wide receivers. Other than Hall’s screen pass, his longest completion was four yards. I get that Cleveland has a great pass defense, but Fields was terrible against Carolina (6-12-46-0-0) and got benched, was completely ineffective against Denver (9-17-45-0-0), and against Buffalo in week two looked lost before being knocked out of the game in the fourth quarter (3-11-27-0-0).
New England will need to follow their game plan for all season to stuff the running game and force Fields to try to test Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis with wide receivers Tyler Johnson, Arian Smith, Isaiah Williams and recently acquired John Metchie.
Pass Defense:
The Patriots have improved their pass defense and unless the Jets throw a curveball and start veteran Tyrod Taylor, the pass defense is going to be focused on their weaker spots of the defense with the linebackers and safeties.
The youthful Jets wide receivers Tyler Johnson, Arian Smith, Isaiah Williams and recently acquired John Metchie have very little production in their short careers and New England cornerbacks Christian Gonzalez, Carlton Davis and Marcus Jones should win their matchups whether Taylor or Fields is at quarterback.
However, running backs Breece Hall and Isaiah Davis out of the backfield and tight ends Mason Taylor and Jeremy Ruckert may be their biggest threats in the passing game. That puts pressure on linebackers Jack Gibbens, Robert Spilland and Jahlani Tavai and safeties Jaylinn Hawkins and Craig Woodson in pass coverage.
Tampa tight end Cade Otton had nine receptions for 82 yards last week. Let there be no doubt that Jets offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand noted that efficiency against the New England defense and has some plays dialed up to test them.
The pass defense was gashed by Otton and Emeka Egbuka (who is just a special talent), although it was concerning that rookie Tez Johnson had four receptions for 42 yards and two touchdowns. One was in garbage time and some of the struggles were simply that Baker Mayfield made some great throws and showed why he is in the MVP conversation in 2025.
The New England pass rush has an interesting matchup as the Jets have two young tackles who are both better run blockers than pass protectors at this point of their career. Armound Membou was their 2025 first-round pick and like Will Campbell, has his ups and downs but looks like a future star.
Left tackle Olu Fashanu was their 2024 first-round pick and struggled mightily on the right side last season before showing some growth at the end of the season. Ideally, New York should have left Fashanu at right tackle and drafted a left tackle, but Membou is so gifted athletically with a high ceiling even though he is right tackle only that they couldn’t pass on him in the draft.
Fashanu has whiffs in the passing game that should give Harold Landry and K’Lavon Chaisson some opportunities to get at the quarterback. Regardless of who plays at quarterback, both Fields and Taylor are mobile and need to be wrapped up.
Interior pass rushers Milton Williams and Christian Barmore should be a disruptive force when the Jets have to pass. Veteran John Simpson has caught the East Rutherford flu that affects veteran guards who play for the Jets and seemingly has forgotten how to pass block at times.
The Jets lost former first round pick guard Alijah Vera-Tucker for the season and leaned on young center Joe Tippman at right guard and veteran Josh Myers in Tippman’s natural position at center. Amazingly, that decision hasn’t worked out great. It is hard to criticize as New England did something similar adding a veteran center and moving the young natural center to guard as well.
The Jets are dead last in Pressure Rate Allowed with a mind-boggling 44.7% per Sharp Football Analysis. No one even close to that rate, although a caveat is that both Fields and Taylor hold onto the ball too long (only the Bears have a higher time to throw than the Jets) and cause a lot of that pressure by not getting rid of the football.
The other aspect to note is that the wide receivers, other than the injured Garrett Wilson, are basically practice squad players forced into a larger role due to the Jets’ whiff on signing Allen Lazard in free agency and letting Davante Adams leave and not replacing him. The Jets got Adonai Mitchell from the Colts in the Gardner trade but he has been injured and has not suited up yet for New York as he takes a crash course on the offense.
Run Defense:
The New England run defense is one of the key aspects to this matchup against the Jets. If Breece Hall goes off, this could be an upset like the Bills-Dolphins last week. Hall is one of the top running backs in the game, and as bad as the Jets offensive line is in pass blocking, they excel in run blocking almost across the line.
New England had some leakage in the run defense last week, although Tampa caught them a couple times with extra defensive backs on the field. Tampa rushed 21 times for 113 yards and Sean Tucker had nine rushes for 53 yards including an 18-yard rumble. New England had better success against Rachaad White, who had just 38 yards on 11 carries.
Tampa had success with the jet sweep action as both Sterling Shepherd and Kameron Johnson each had 11 yard runs. Again, the Jets will be noting that and adding it to their game plan until New England shows they can stop it.
Tampa was just the third team to top 75 yards rushing so far in 2025 against New England joining Carolina (129 yards) and Buffalo (118 yards) topping 100 yards on the ground. The Jets run early and often, with designed quarterback runs a part of their package and a premier running back.
The Jets failed to top 90 yards on the ground just once (against Carolina) and have topped 190 yards rushing three times in 2025. They lit up Pittsburgh for 182 yards rushing in week one, Miami for 197 yards in week four, and then CIncinnati’s terrible defense in week eight was gashed for 254 yards rushing in the Jets’ first victory of the season.
For the Patriots, Milton Williams and Christian Barmore have continued penetrating and contributing in slowing running plays. Nose tackle Khyris Tonga gets attention for his play at fullback on offense, but he has been a force filling the middle of the defense and giving opposing teams no space to run.
Linebackers Robert Spillane, Jack Gibbens and now Jahlani Tavai (taking over for an injured Christian Ellis) have taken advantage of their opportunities cleaning up running backs behind or near the line of scrimmage for the most part this season. There were tackling issues earlier in the season that they’ve cleaned up for the most part.
Safety Jaylinn Hawkins has been a major contributor in the run defense coming up from the safety position. Rookie Craig Woodson and the cornerbacks have been willing tacklers in the run defense as well.
For New England, the entire game plan starts with keeping Breece Hall under wraps. If they force the Jets into obvious passing downs, the defense has a chance to dominate and create turnovers.
The most dangerous runner in the backfield can be Justin Fields when he is scrambling or on designed running plays. A natural runner, his performance against New England while with the Bears in October 2022 on a chilly Monday night when he carved up the Patriots defense with his running ability and mobility in the pocket still is burnt into my brain as the official end of the Belichick Dynasty as Mac Jones was benched for Bailey Zappe in that game.
It’s a tough task to slow Hall and Fields in the run game. New England may have to devote more time to base personnel and leave the cornerbacks in man coverage while keeping a spy in to account for Fields’ scrambling. It’s an unconventional kind of game, and those can swing either way to blowout (stuff the run) or upset (let Hall and Fields run at will).
Other Factors:
Like the run game, this is a crucial factor in this interdivisional Thursday night game. The Jets won last week due to scoring twice on special teams. Their offense and defense didn’t really do enough to beat a bad Cleveland team, but their special teams return game gave them a kickoff and punt return touchdown on back-to-back drives to give them a chance to score 20+ points.
The Patriots coverage units have been solid if not spectacular. They gave up a punt return touchdown to the Dolphins in week two with Malik Washington taking it 74 yards. Are they good or bad on return coverage? You’d never know with the Boston media coverage focused on the superficial stats.
I had to turn to my old friends at The Football Database to get my hands on some special teams stats to validate what I’ve seen with my eyes this season. New England is seventh in NFL kick return coverage, allowing just 24.12 yards average and a long of just 34 yards on kick returns.
Punt coverage is where the worries are for the Patriots’ special teams. They rank second-to-last allowing 14.86 yards per punt return with the Malik Washington 74 yarder skewing things. Take that away, and it’s a 10.3 yards per return average which is middle of the pack. However, it happened and until they show more improvement, this a huge concern on Thursday night.
In the kicking game, New England Patriots rookie sixth-round draft pick kicker Andy Borregales has continued to improve each week after a shaky start to his career in New England. The rookie is kicking with confidence and has been steady with extra points, field goals and kickoffs.
Punter Bryce Baringer remains solid despite the occasional side-of-foot short wobbler. More consistency, more hang time, and less returns are needed from Baringer, especially on Thursday night. Who can tell unless he airmails or dirt-hops a snap, but the rookie long snapper, Julian Ashby, has been fine as far as I’ve seen so far.
Efton Chism has been on the active roster to return kicks and has been…just okay. The Patriots are middle of the pack average on returns averaging 25.26 yards per return per The Football Database.
New England is fifth in the NFL in punt returns at 15.6 yards per return. Marcus Jones remains a threat to return a punt to the house as Jets fans no doubt remember from when he had the 84-yard punt return with five seconds remaining in the game in 2022 to give the Patriots a 10-3 win. He has also returned for 87 yards against Carolina this season (and almost broke another return).
Game Pick:
The Patriots have been churning through bad teams all season and racking up victories. Other than the Bills in week five and last week against Tampa, since week four they’ve beaten every team they should beat. The Jets are another team that New England should win against.
That said, last week the Bills were upset by Miami. The week before, the Vikings beat the Lions, the Panthers beat the Packers and the Steelers beat the Colts.
Upsets happen every week in the NFL. Especially after a tough game against a quality opponent, a letdown can happen easily.
Thursday night games are wildly unpredictable because of the short turnaround and lack of preparation time heading into the game.
Divisional games, due to familiarity, can be wildly unpredictable.
Just a team on an extending winning streak going against a last place team with nothing to lose can lead to upsets.
There are a literal tsunami of “upset alerts” for this game.
That said, I doubted the Patriots would be able to beat Tampa last week, and they gutted out a tough win. This week, they can not play their best and still win handily.
The agenda this week is simple: Stop the run; No screw ups on special teams; get an early lead and don’t let the Jets hang around.
I think they can do that. It’s a big point spread this week, but I’m confident New England should win and cover pretty handily, but I am leaning towards the under this week.
PATRIOTS 27 @ JETS 11
Spread: Patriots -11.5 : Patriots
Moneyline: Patriots -800, Jets +550: Patriots
Over/Under: 43.5: Under
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