It is very difficult to temper expectations when the New England Patriots have reached the end of November and are currently on top of the mountain as the number one seed in the AFC. My wildest expectations for this team was winning nine games and sneaking into the playoffs and getting annihilated by Buffalo, Baltimore or Kansas City. This is the most satisfying season as a fan since 2001 as far as exceeding expectations and the joy of seeing a young quarterback ascend towards superstardom.
New England beat Cincinnati, which was a game I did not expect them to win in any way shape or form when going through the schedule week by week before the season. The Bengals should have been a playoff team and a contender to knock off Baltimore in the AFC North. Instead, an injury to Joe Burrow derailed their season and New England was a “more than a touchdown” favorite going into the game.
After an incredible run of injury luck, the Patriots joined the other 31 teams in having significant injuries occur to important players on both sides of the football. They lost star defensive tackle Milton Williams to a high ankle sprain against the Jets that led to him being placed on injured reserve.
Last week, disaster occurred as both rookie starters on the left side of the offensive line were knocked out of the game due to injury. First-round draft pick left tackle Will Campbell suffered a knee injury after third-round draft pick left guard Jared Wilson went down with an ankle injury.
The Patriots got lucky again, as like the Williams injury, Wilson’s high ankle sprain is not a season-ender. may only cause him to miss the Giants game. For Campbell, who appeared to suffer a season-ending injury, he escaped with an MCL sprain and still could return before the end of the season or at the least the playoffs.
At 10-2, New England picked up a game after the Buffalo Bills lost for the fourth time in their last seven games after their 4-0 start. The Bills at 7-4 are now 2.5 games behind New England in the AFC East. The Bills lost on Thursday night to the Houston Texans and back-up quarterback Davis Mills after turning the ball over three times for the third consecutive game.
With a prime-time Monday Night Football match-up with the New York Giants on tap, the Patriots have to avoid looking ahead on the schedule to that match-up with Buffalo on December 14th. Yes, the Patriots have well deserved time off coming up after this game, but there are two huge AFC match-ups still looming after the bye week in December and they close the season with games against AFC East rivals.
New England needs to maintain focus right now solely on the Giants heading into the abnormally late in the season bye week.
New England is facing a Giants team that while 2-10 and in last place in the NFC East, are more talented than their record indicates with one of the most potent pass rushing defensive lines in the NFL. Going against a New England offensive line with two new starters this week, this could be a sneaky game where New York gets over the hump and pulls out a shocking upset. Remember, they’ve beaten Philadelphia and the Chargers in 2025 and should have beat Dallas, Denver, Chicago and the Lions last week.
The Giants just cannot seem to figure out how to close out a winnable game in 2025. Somehow, they have managed to lose five games that they led by double digits, which explains why their head coach and defensive coordinator have both been fired already. The Giants lost 34-27 in overtime to the Lions last week after they led 10-0, 17-7, and 27-17.
In fact, the Giants--despite missing their dynamic duo of rookies in quarterback Jaxson Dart (concussion) and running back Cam Skattebo (season ending ankle injury)--have continued to hang in there against good teams. They lost the last three games by one-score or less to the Bears (24-20), Packers (27-20), and Lions (34-27 in OT).
New England needs to treat the Giants as a 6-6 team that has already defeated really good teams and not look down at them due to their 2-10 record. That laissez-faire attitude almost cost them last week against the Bengals.
Last Week:
The New England Patriots eventually won this game 26-20 over the Bengals, but it was not pretty. In fact, the first quarter was probably their worst performance as a team since week three of the regular season versus Pittsburgh.
On the initial drive, the Patriots managed a first down on the first series but Drake Maye missed badly on third-and-four trying to find Mack Hollins and the Patriots were punting the ball to Cincinnati and Joe Flacco. Jared Wilson was injured on the third-down conversion and replaced by Ben Brown.
In an ominous start to the game, Chase Brown ripped through the number one ranked run defense coming into the game for ten yards. Flacco completed his first four passes and Cincinnati piled up three first down conversions on their opening drive before stalling at the New England 35 yard line and settling for an Evan McPherson field goal.
Once again playing from behind, the Patriots went three and out and something was clearly up with Maye as he continued missing badly on passes he normally completes. After punting, Cincinnati went back to running the ball down the Patriots’ throats and converting another three first downs, including a horrendous offsides penalty on fourth-and-four by K’Lavon Chaisson which fortunately was not costly as Flacco was sacked on third and five moving them out of field goal range.
After the Bengals punted to the Patriots, they made it 10-0 as Drake Maye had a wide open Hunter Henry and missed badly resulting in safety Geno Stone picking the ball off and returning it for a touchdown. Suddenly, less than a minute into the second quarter, the Patriots were down by two scores and Drake Maye was clearly off his game.
Maye bounced back as New England drove down the field with an immediate answer as Maye found Hunter Henry twice on back-to-back plays for 12 yards on third-and-two and then 28 yards for the touchdown. It was now 10-7.
Flacco came right back on the next drive and gifted New England another seven points with a terrible stare-down and throw to running back Tahj Brooks in the flat that Marcus Jones read and jumped the route. Jones almost overran the ball, but snatched it and waltzed into the end zone to put New England ahead 14-10.
After Cincinnati stalled on their next drive due to a holding penalty and a false start putting them into a third and 23 situation that even running a hook-and-ladder couldn’t convert, Maye led the Patriots into field goal range hooking up with his tight ends three time times before Andres Borregales nailed the 41-yard field goal.
With less than thirty seconds before halftime, the defense let Chase Brown loosed for a 21 yard run and after Flacco hit Tee Higgins for 16 yards, Evan McPherson took advantage of the defensive breakdown by New England by nailing a 63-yard field goal to make it 17-13 New England at the half.
As bad as New England played in the first half, the frustrations on offense were even worse in the second half. After forcing a three and out to start the half, New England quickly drove to the Cincinnati 1-yard line. They couldn’t convert on third and goal or fourth and goal, although a defensive penalty reset the down. At first and goal from the one-yard line, a failed run by Terrell Jennings, an incompletion, and then an offensive pass interference penalty wiped out a touchdown and moved them to the 11 yard line.
A completion to Hunter Henry moved them back to the one yard line, but failed runs by Rhamondre Stevenson on third and fourth down saw them turnover the ball on downs. The Bengals could not capitalize and punted it back to the Patriots. A sack on second-and-four ended a promising drive and New England settled for an Andres Borregales 45 yard field goal to make it 20-13.
The defense stopped Cincinnati again and the Bengals, despite the game being in the fourth quarter and near mid-field, only tried to draw the Patriots’ defense off-side rather than run a play on fourth-and-one. They took a delay of game and punted.
New England again drove into the red zone as Maye was on target and converted a first-and-twenty after a Ben Brown holding penalty. TreVeyon Henderson was in rhythm running the ball, Maye added a 12-yard scramble and the Patriots had first and goal at the four yard line.
Again, the short yardage demons emerged as Henderson rushed it to the one. On third and goal, Maye couldn’t get in on the quarterback keeper. Then head coach Mike Vrabel gave up and sent out Borregales for a 19 yard field goal.
Ahead 23-13 with six minutes left to play, the Patriots defense, which had been so effective all day, turtled up into a prevent defense and let Flacco drive the Bengals down the field in less than two minutes and score a touchdown to cut the lead to three points.
New England tried to run down the clock but the run game disappeared and they settled for a 52-yard field goal as Borregales pushed the lead to 26-20. With 1:51 to play, Flacco led the Bengals right down the field again, converting two fourth downs before facing a fourth-and-ten at the New England 26-yard line.
The Patriots dialed up pressure playing cover-0 and dropping safely Dell Pettus, who showed blitz and backed out into the passing lane Flacco was looking for on the slant. That caused him to reset and with the pass rush getting to him, fired a desperate pass to the goal line that was broken up by Marcus Jones to preserve the 26-20 win.
How to Watch/Listen to the Game:
Last week I made the mistake of calling the CBS announcing duo of Kevin Harlan and Trent Green as “the very solid B-team.” I take that back. Harlan is adequate but Green is absolutely useless in the booth. He offered zero insight, had a monotone delivery and seemed completely disinterested throughout the game.
This week’s game will be broadcast by ESPN and can be seen locally on WCVB-TV Channel 5. Joe Buck will handle play-by-play duties with former NFL quarterback Troy Aikman as the color analyst. Lisa Salters and Laura Rutledge will provide analysis from the sidelines.
Fortunately, Aikman is not monotone and disinterested. He actually is one of the few former players in the booth who has no hesitation to call out what he sees on the field and doesn’t seem concerned about whether someone may get upset. It’s actually quite refreshing.
If you’re into it, the giant forehead himself and his brother Gomer, I mean Peyton and Eli Manning, are broadcasting "Monday Night Football with Peyton and Eli" --aka the "ManningCast" -- on ESPN2 during the game. ESPN’s “Monday Night Countdown” pre-game program begins at 6:00PM. All their broadcasts are available to stream through the ESPN app as well.
This week’s game will be broadcast to a national audience on the radio by Westwood One Sports. Tom McCarthy will call the game with former Patriot and three-time Super Bowl Champion Devin McCourty providing analysis. McCarthy calls baseball games as the voice of the Philadelphia Phillies (alongside the zany former Phillies “legend” John Kruk--now that sounds fun!). Interesting note on McCarthy, he initially worked in the mid-nineties in multiple roles for the Red Sox double-A affiliate in Trenton as the radio voice, director of media relations and assistant General Manager.
As always, Sunday’s game will be broadcast locally on the radio by Bigelow Tea hawking play-by-play broadcaster Bob Socci calling the action along with former Patriots quarterback and Sports Hub “personality” Scott “Zo” Zolak providing analysis.
I will credit Zolak as early in the game he seemed to think Maye had hit his hand on a helmet when he threw incomplete to Mack Hollins on third-and-four on the first drive. Maye was asked about it in the postgame press conference and indicated he didn’t think he hit his hand, but Maye isn’t one to make excuses.
The three for eight start for 16 yards and a pick-six seemed to imply something was up with Maye. As usual, the New England print and television media did absolutely zero work to dig into what happened.
The Sports Hub pregame show kicks-off at 8am with the always informative Alex Barth and Cerrone Battle. At 10am, the Patriots Pregame show begins featuring Marc “the Beetle” Bertrand (does he have anything of value to bring to the pregame show?) and Boston Globe columnist Chris Gasper (at least he’s informative and intelligent and always sneaks in a vocabulary word that leads to looking up the word online) leading up to handing it off to Socci and Zo.
Don’t adjust your television set, the Patriots are in their throwback red uniforms Monday night which will just churn up Patriots PTSD for me. Please, don’t make me re-live those wonderful memories of the “Pat Patriot” logo and color scheme along with Tony Eason, Marc Wilson, Don Hasselbeck, Hart Lee Dykes, John Stephens, Maurice Hurst, Roland James, Kenneth Sims, and all the other Patriots players and teams that failed miserably throughout my childhood.
It will be the Patriots’ first Monday Night Football game since their 27-13 win at Arizona in December 2022. Don’t remember that game? That was the game they knocked Kyler Murray out for the season and he never was the same again. Raekwon McMillan had a fumble return touchdown and the immortal Pierre Strong rushed for 70 yards on five carries including a three yard rushing touchdown.
It was the second Monday Night game for the Patriots that season as in October at Gillette Stadium “the beginning of the end of Bill Belichick in New England game” occurred when Justin Fields looked like the next great NFL quarterback destroying New England 33-14 in one of the ugliest losses by Belichick as Patriots head coach.
Key Stats:
The Patriots are now 4-2 at Gillette Stadium and 6-0 on the road in 2025 as they will host the New York Giants on Monday Night Football this week in prime time. The current nine-game winning streak in 2025 is the longest streak since some guy with a horrible looking statue outside the stadium was under center in Foxboro.
New England’s offense is still averaging 26.5 points per game after hitting that average with 26 points in their win over the Bengals remaining seventh in the league in points scored, After piling up 392 total yards against the Bengals’ defense, New England is up to eighth in the NFL as they topped 4,000 total yards of offense for the season (all stats from Pro-Football-Reference.com, unless otherwise noted).
For the third consecutive game, Drake Maye was only sacked one time. That improvement is some credit to the offensive line, but a lot for Maye in actually throwing the ball away rather than trying to extend every single play. This is something all young quarterbacks have to learn, and Maye has made a dramatic improvement during the season after running into too many sacks earlier in the season.
Maye remains the completion percentage leader despite dropping to a 71.0% completion rate and leads the league with 3,130 yards passing. He now has 21 touchdowns passing to just six interceptions. He is first in the league in Adjusted Yards per Attempt (factoring in touchdown passes and interceptions) with a 9.24 yards average.
New England, while sixth in passing yards, remains 27th in the league in pass attempts, an extraordinary statistic. This shows the commitment by offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels’ commitment to the inept running game that is 27th in yards per attempt in order to set up play action. Credit May for his efficiency and downfield vision for creating big plays without traditional big play receivers in the passing game.
While improving in preventing sacks, the Patriots are still struggling to run the football despite getting Rhamondre Stevenson back last week. They are 19th in rushing yards with just 1,349 yards on the ground after rushing for 107 yards last week, which sounds good except that it included 31 attempts (counting kneel downs) to get those yards.
On defense, the emphasis by head coach Mike Vrabel and interim defensive coordinator Zak Kuhr (Defensive Coordinator Terrell Williams has been on medical leave much of training camp and the season) on controlling the opponent’s running game took a big step back last week. Chase Brown went off for Cincinnati becoming the first running back to total 100 yards on the ground against New England this season.
That dropped the Patriots from first overall in rushing yards and attempts allowed to second, but they still allowed the fewest rushing touchdowns (4). They are allowing teams to rush for 4.0 yards per attempt, which is 11th best in the NFL. With Milton Williams on injured reserve and Khyiris Tonga’s status for Monday night up in the air with a chest injury, the Patriots run defense is a question mark right now.
The team defense dropped from fifth to sixth in the NFL in points allowed (18.8 per game) and eighth in total yards allowed. The passing defense took a hit last week as Cincinnati moved the ball through the air even without Ja’Marr Chase on the field.
The New England pass defense was 26th in passing yards allowed heading into week five. After twelve weeks, they’ve improved to 17th in passing yards allowed. They’ve cut down significantly on the big chunk plays allowed and are now 13th in net yards allowed per attempt (after being as bad as 29th earlier in the season).
NE Offense vs NYG Defense:
The Patriots are facing a New York Giants team that is coming off yet another crushing defeat after blowing 27-17 fourth quarter lead over the Detroit Lions before falling in overtime 34-27. The Giants are 2-10 but their Pythagorean record (or expected record based on points scored and allowed) is between 4-8 and 5-7. They lost two games in overtime and the worst defensive collapse of the season in October in the fourth quarter against the Broncos where they blew 19-0 and 26-8 leads.
In that game, they actually came back on offense and took a 32-30 lead with just 37 seconds to play in the game and the defense still blew that lead to lose 33-32. I watched that game in a Seattle bar surrounded by a huge extended family of Denver Broncos fans and that energy as they came back just swept over the whole place.
The New England offense is now seventh in the league on third down conversion percentage (42.4%) and are excellent on fourth down (13 of 17 conversions for an 76.5%) ranking number one in the league in fourth down conversion percentage. They failed on their fourth-and-goal try last week, but it was still the correct call to be aggressive.
The Red Zone problems--as I’ve been warning about all year--was on full display last week as the Patriots dropped to 20th in Red Zone TD percentage (down from 14th a few weeks ago) with just 23 of 42 trips resulting in touchdowns (54.8%). Last week saw the Patriots put up a total of three points after having the ball at the one-yard line twice.
New York’s defense is 30th in points allowed and 30th in yards allowed. Of course, the Bengals were worse last week and New England only scored 26 points on that defense. New York struggles against the passing game (23rd in passing yards allowed) and against the run they are especially abysmal ranking 32nd in rushing yards allowed and yards per attempt (5.9 yds/attempt) and 30th in rushing touchdowns allowed with 17.
The Giants are 21st in the NFL on third down percentage, allowing a 40.1% conversion rate (57 of 142). On fourth down, they’ve allowed nine of 13 conversions. In the Red Zone, the defense has been horrible as they’re 31st overall allowing touchdowns on 30 of 42 trips inside the 20 yard line.
Tendencies wise on defense, the Giants are about middle of the pack across the board. They’re basically league average in blitz rate (per Sharp Football Analysis) at 27.1%. They are middle of the pack as far as man/zone coverages, as neither seems too well for them.
Pass Offense:
The Giants’ pass rush has the potential to be hugely disruptive, which is why the terrible defense is so surprising. Rookie Abdul Carter was probably the most NFL ready player in the 2025 NFL Draft and although the sack numbers aren’t there, the quarterback hits and pressure rate show he is effective.
The Giants also have another high draft pick in Kayvon Thibodeaux, who can bring the speed rush but only has 2.5 sacks despite generating pressure. The star this season is Brian Burns, as the former Carolina Panther has 13 sacks so far in a dozen games.
The inside pass rush is no joke in New York either, as both 2019 first round draft pick Dexter Lawrence and Rakeem Nunez-Roches (3 sacks) can be disruptive.
So why is this defense so bad? The pass rush wears down. And that secondary, woof!
The Giants fired long-time Mike Vrabel confidant Shane Bowen as defensive coordinator and replaced him with Charlie Bullen as interim defensive coordinator. With head coach Brian Daboll already replaced with interim leader Mike Kafka, this is another band-aid on a car crash.
Jevon Holland is the jewel of the Giants’ secondary. The former Dolphin was not re-signed in Miami for…well, reasons I can’t seem to fathom even now months later. Holland can cover tight ends, patrol the deep middle of the field, and is a ballhawk in the secondary.
Of course, he’s only one player and can do so much against New England’s receiving tight ends and Drake “Drake Maye” Maye’s precision passing attack downfield.
Second-year second-round pick Tyler Nubin has struggled again at safety. He has been a liability in coverage and has been picked on by teams with strong mutule-tight end formations. He missed the last two games with a neck injury and his status for Monday night isn’t known yet. If he can’t go, Dane Belton is next in line.
At cornerback, the Giants paid a ton for Paulson Adebo and he’s been…well, just average when on the field. Adebo is also banged up and has been out for the last five games with a knee injury and his return is unknown.
The Giants also were without Deonte Banks due to a hip injury last week. There isn’t much depth left as starters Cor’Dale Flott and Dru Phillips have struggled but have no one ready to step up and take their place. The defensive coordinator was fired, but he didn’t bring in these secondary players who haven’t been good at all in 2025.
The New England offensive line gave up some pressure but only one sack for the third consecutive week last week. Unfortunately, the offensive line is having some shuffling against their will as injuries to impressive rookies Will Campbell and Jared Wilson will introduce new starters on the left side of the line.
Veteran Ben Brown took over at left guard after Wilson went down on the first drive of the game and held up well. He filled in for a game early in the season for Wilson and was perfectly fine. Brown is a low-end starter/strong veteran backup who may only need to fill in a game or two until Wilson returns.
At left tackle, PTSD-inducing left tackle Vederian Lowe was actually average to above-average replacing Campbell last week. Last year, Lowe looked like the worst left tackle in NFL history. He recently revealed he gutted through last season playing with a torn labrum, which explains a lot about his performance. So fully healthy at last, Josh McDaniels still gave him additional help with chips and extra blockers (what a concept!) and that seemed to make a huge difference and build up his confidence.
The Patriots also have seventh-round draft pick, the preseason star, Marcus Bryant from Missouri. Bryant can play on the left and right side and he subbed in for Morgan Moses for a few plays last week as Moses was suffering from an “illness”. Whether Bryant is left as right-side backup only or Lowe stays on the left side won’t be revealed until Monday night.
The New England tight ends stepped up last week as Drake Maye struggled to get the receivers involved against a Bengals secondary that had one of its best performances of the season. Maye finished with 294 yards through the air, but Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper combined for ten receptions for 154 yards.
Stefon Diggs was taken out of the passing attack the entire first half last week and finished with just two receptions for 20 yards. Mack Hollins and Kayshon Boutte each had two catches each. Kyle Williams had an 18 yard reception and Demario Douglas popped for a key 37 yard catch.
Run Offense:
The Patriots continued to be inconsistent in the running game in 2025 and after a few strong performances against Tennessee, Cleveland, Atlanta and Tampa Bay, the inconsistencies showed up against the dreadful Bengals run defense last week.
Although rookie TreVeyon Henderson led the team in rushing, it took 18 carries for him to reach 66 yards with a long of nine yards. Rhamondre Stevenson returned, but both he and Terrell Jennings were ineffective at the
The Giants defense is no better than the Jets or Bengals run defense has been, so the New England rushing attack having struggled the past two weeks against teams they should have dominated is very troubling for this matchup against the Giants.
Fortunately, the Giants are just terrible against the run. None of these pass rushing beasts are particularly effective against the run up front and that creates problems as teams have piled up yards on the ground.
So far, they have allowed 200+ rushing yards three times (including 237 yards on the ground last week to Detroit) and three more games of 150 plus yards rushing. Only twice have they managed to hold teams under 100 yards rushing (weeks five and six versus New Orleans and Philadelphia).
The linebackers are just okay. Bobby Okereke piles up tackles, but is just okay in coverage and Neville Hewitt and rookie Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles have struggled tackling and giving up big plays. If the offensive linemen get to the second-level, there are big plays aplenty in the run game.
For New England, Josh McDaniels is not going to abandon the running game, especially with injuries along the offensive line. The Patriots have been committed even without success to set-up play action passing. The Patriots have 347 rushing attempts through 12 weeks and 357 passing attempts.
Getting Rhamondre Stevenson back to health after his toe injury will help the rushing attack, but the big play capability and receiving skills he brings should keep him as the primary back in the offense. After the struggles at the goal line last week reached near comical levels, the Patriots have to either embrace a finesse running game or make changes in the trenches.
NYG Offense vs NE Defense
The Giants are simply a different team with first-round draft pick Jaxson Dart at quarterback. Dart missed the past two games, but his return from a concussion should give a boost to the offense. With five starts with Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston, the Giants are 0-5 and the two quarterbacks have combined for five touchdowns and five interceptions.
With Dart, the Giants are 2-5 in his seven starts and he has ten passing touchdowns to just three interceptions. In addition, Dart is a weapon with his legs as he averages 5.6 yards per rush and has added seven touchdowns on the ground.
Dart is laser-focused on two favorite receivers: slot receiver Wan’Dale Robinson and tight end Theo Johnson. Darius Slayton is the only other wide receiver with ten receptions other than the injured Malik Nabors. Isaiah Hodges has recently rejoined the Giants and in two games with Winston at quarterback immediately became a needed additional option on offense with seven catches for 99 yards.
The Patriots have been so dependent on the defense being able to get off the field on third down and get the ball back to the offense. They are seventh in the NFL now allowing just 35.6% of third downs. On the season, they’re also third best in the NFL with just seven conversions on 19 attempts allowed (36.8%).
The struggle on defense in New England has remained to be the Red Zone. Opponents have 19 touchdowns on 26 trips for a 73.1% conversion rate after the Bengals scored on their only trip inside the twenty. The Bengals scored on a defensive touchdown and had two field goals where they got nowhere near the red zone before scoring late in the fourth quarter.
New England played pretty well on defense against an explosive offense last week, although they were hampered by missing Chase and losing Tee Higgins to a concussion during the game. Dart will pressure them in ways that Joe Flacco or Justin Fields could not do in these past two weeks.
Pass Defense:
The Giants are not a heavy three wide receiver offense and are near the bottom percentage along with the Patriots offense. While New England leans into the multiple running backs, the Giants go heavy with two tight ends in their base offense.
That is not an ideal offense for the Patriots to match up against.
The Patriots are fifth in the NFL as far as Sub Package Rate (five or more defensive backs) and any defensive alignment without their three cornerbacks on it does not bode well for the Patriots playing to their strengths.
With the Giants playing with more than 50% of their snaps with two or more tight ends for the season, they’ve really leaned into the multi-tight ends since head coach Brian Daboll was fired. Third tight end Chris Manhertz played 34% of the snaps last week while starters Theo Johnson (78%) and Daniel Bellinger (62%) were on the field a bunch.
This forces the Patriots to play a heavier base defense and with Khyiris Tonga questionable for Monday night, that is a huge piece in the middle of the defense missing. But the Patriots will have to have more linebackers and safeties on the field because these tight ends can all post-up the five-foot-nine Marcus Jones.
Jahlani Tavai is a key part of the linebacker rotation and would be expected to have a larger role this week, except he is dealing with a personal situation and is likely to miss a second consecutive game. That means more Jack Gibbens (run defender deluxe, but not much to talk about in coverage) and Marte Mapu.
Mapu did not play at all on defense last week, limited to special teams only. At six-foot-three and 230 lbs., Mapu has the size and athleticism to match-up with the New York tight ends in coverage.
The Giants’ wide receivers don’t strike fear in the hearts of defensive coordinators with Malik Nabors on injured reserve, but Wan’Dale Robinson has picked up the slack. He had nine receptions for 156 yards and a touchdown last week against Detroit and is a handful for longer cornerbacks at five-foot-eight and very quick and shifty.
Darius Slayton is wildly inconsistent week to week. After having season highs in receptions (five) and then yards (89) in consecutive weeks, he went out last week and pulled in just one catch the entire game. He fills the role of the long outside receiver in the offense but should have a tough test with Carlton Davis and Christian Gonzalez.
Isaiah Hodgkins was rescued off the Steelers’ practice squad and is comfortable with the Giants after having been with them for the prior three seasons. He stopped in and is already stealing snaps from Slayton.
The Giants have former Patriots fan favorite Gunner Olszewski as back-up slot receiver and returner/special teams ace. Olszewski channeled his inner Julian Edelman last week and threw a touchdown pass to Jameis Winston on a trick play. The Giants have also elevated former Falcons receiver Ray-Ray McCloud from the practice squad a few times. Both don’t get many options, but both have a little juice and could be called on for a little trickeration.
What was odd about week twelve was that Davis and Jones were the stars of the secondary in New England and Gonzalez had one of his worst performances in New England. While Jones had the pick-six and broke up the last gasp attempt by Flacco.
Davis was the victim of a ticky-tacky DPI call, but bounced back with three pass breakups on the final drive and was playing like a man possessed. Davis and Jones only allowed four receptions each despite being targeted nine times each.
Gonzalez allowed five completions on six targets for 48 yards and the 17-yard touchdown to Mitchell Tinsley. To see Gonzalez allowing a 139.6 rating in coverage was shocking. He had been excellent this season after getting his feet under him after missing the first three weeks.
Opposing teams have been running bunch formations, particularly on third downs, in an attempt to isolate Gonzalez on a tight end or lesser wide receiver in three-by-one formations this year to keep him off their top wide receiver. The Jets did that to get AD Mitchell and John Metchie away from matchups with Gonzalez, just as Atlanta and Tampa Bay had done to get more favorable matchups for Drake London and Emeka Ebuka.
Joe Flacco, the fearless veteran, showed absolutely no fear and went right at Gonzalez without any deception. Look, I get that he is a human being and not a robot, but Gonzalez has been so consistently superb since day one arriving in Foxboro that it was a surprise. Cincinnati didn’t test him deep, but did find receivers coming back a few times with Gonzalez giving a cushion.
The New England pass rush will have extra pressure on them to contain the elusive Dart who is more than capable of making plays with his feet. Coming off of yet another concussion and missing a few games, the Giants may be hesitant to dial up too many designed quarterback runs, but Dart can extend plays and loves to take a deep shot when outside the pocket.
With interior pass rusher Milton Williams on injured reserve with a high ankle sprain and out for a while, the Patriots need Christian Barmore to be a disruptive force with inside pressure. Cory Durden, Joshua Farmer and Eric Gregory are not even close to the pass rushing force that Milton is for the Patriots. However, they need to find a way to contain Dart and keep him from escaping the pocket and running for first downs.
Harold Landry and K’Lavon Chaisson need to step up. Chaisson missed a sack and Landry had the only one New England managed. Whether it is fifth-round draft pick Bradyn Swinson or undrafted rookie Elijah Ponder, New England needs to get the youngsters some opportunity to get their young and fresh legs on the field and not wear out Chaisson and Landry before the postseason.
The Giants as a passing offense don’t really match-up with their stats since Winston, Wilson and Dart are totally different quarterbacks. What is clear watching the Giants in 2025 is that the offensive line is not really the root of their problems (this season, at least). They’re middle of the pack in pressure rate allowed and time to throw.
It all starts in New York on the offensive line with left tackle Andrew Thomas. When he’s out of the lineup due to injury the offense just does not function. Thomas ranks in the top five among all offensive tackles this season in pass blocking and overall score per Pro Football Focus. In ten games he’s had just three penalties and allowed just one sack.
Jon Runyan is a below-average guard but the Giants overpaid for him in free agency in 2024 and are stuck with him this season due to the almost $10 in guaranteed money and lack of a better option. Center John Michael Schmitz isn’t much better than Runyan and in his third season after being a second-round draft pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, the high expectations just have not been met.
On the right side of the offensive line, the Giants have veteran Greg Van Roten at guard and former Patriots tackle Jermaine Eluemunor. Both Van Roten and Eluemunor were signed as free agents after the Raiders made little effort to re-sign either of them. Picking through the Raiders’ leftovers on the offensive line is usually not a winning formula for building strong blockers.
The veteran Van Roten is much better in pass blocking than in the running game and that has been clear this season in his age 35 season. On his sixth team in his 11th NFL season (Green Bay, Carolina, the Jets, Buffalo, Las Vegas and now the Giants), the Penn alumni (that is not a typo he did not play at Penn State for the Nittany Lions, he played college ball at Penn for the Quakers) is nearing the end of the line but hasn’t missed a game since 2022.
Eluemunor has been a solid and steadying presence on the Giants right side of the line working well with the veteran Van Roten. He piles up the penalties (nine so far) but has only allowed four sacks. Eluemunor was a fifth-round pick in Baltimore who bounced back and forth to the practice squad over two seasons. Bill Belichick sent a fourth-round pick to the Ravens for him and a sixth-round pick in 2019.
Eluemunor was originally tried at guard in 2019 before getting some starts at right tackle during the pandemic season in 2020. He went to the Raiders in free agency where he was joined by former Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels who brought assistant offensive line coach Carmen Bricillo to take the line coach role.
He spent three years in Las Vegas settling in at right tackle and followed Bricillo to New York in free agency where his average to above-average play at right tackle was welcome after the Giants faithful were subjected to the horrors of watching former top-ten draft pick Evan Neal fail miserably for three seasons at the tackle position.
The Giants have a heavy use of Shotgun Rate, which makes sense with a rookie quarterback who hasn’t played much under center in college. Another passing game tendency to be alert for during the game is the Giants using no huddle/tempo. They rank third as far as highest rate of running the no-huddle offense (per Sharp Football Analysis).
Run Defense:
The Giants are going to come in and test the New England run defense. There is no doubt about that. The Giants two wins saw them pile up 161 and 172 yards on the ground in those games.
Even without rookie sensation Cam Skattebo (seriously, how did he last until the fourth round of the NFL Draft?) who is on injured reserve, last year’s rookie sensation and fifth-round draft pick Tyrone Tracy has picked up the slack on the ground. After rushing for 839 yards as a rookie, Tracy has rushed for 71, 88 and 62 yards as the lead back again in New York.
The offensive line are actually better pass blockers than run blockers, but the Giants like to have two or three tight ends on the field together and try to make space for the running backs. Theo Johnson is an excellent receiver but a willing run blocker. Daniel Bellinger and veteran Chris Manhertz are the run blockers (particularly Bellinger, who is a force when he gets downhill).
The Giants also have former Buffalo Bills running back Devin Singletary, who has gone from buried on the depth chart to a 50% split with Tracy. He has had 30 rush attempts in the past two weeks (although he’s only gained 91 yards, just over 3.0 yards per rush).
Singletary spent four years in Buffalo and twice topped 800 yards rushing for the Bills. James Cook forced him out and he landed in Houston on a one-year deal and rushed for 898 yards. The Giants signed him to a three-year, $16.5 million contract with $9.5 million in guarantees. He has not lived up to that contract and likely will be a free agent again this offseason.
The New England run defense has struggled the past three weeks after being the strength of the defense for the first half of the season. The Bengals (120 yards) became the fourth team to top 100 yards rushing so far in 2025 against New England joining Carolina (129 yards), Buffalo (118 yards) Tampa (113 yards) and the Jets (140 yards).
However, there are a few caveats to those numbers as New England won all five games. Carolina was behind 42-6 in the fourth quarter and ran for 45 yards in garbage time. Buffalo’s star running back James Cook had just 49 yards on 15 carries and it was quarterback Josh Allen (nine rushes for 53 yards) doing the damage by scrambling.
These last three games, however, there are no caveats. The Buccaneers offensive line was winning up front and making room for Sean Tucker and Rachaad White. Jets were a load with Justin Fields and Breece Hall before they inexplicably stopped using Fields as a dual threat runner.
Last week, the Bengals took advantage of New England losing Khyiris Tonga and already missing Milton Williams to pile up 120 yards on just 23 carries. Running back Chase Brown topped 100 yards rushing as the first running back to do so this season against New England. He finished with 107 yards on 19 carries and had only five rushes that were for one or zero yards.
For the Patriots, Milton Williams being out obviously impacted the run defense as he has made plenty of plays penetrating in the backfield to disrupt the running game. Christian Barmore is much more effective as a pass rusher than run defender.
Nose tackle Khyiris Tonga being out is a huge concern. He had a chest injury and left the game, tried to come back, but couldn’t continue. He is likely to miss Monday night’s game and use the bye week to get healthy.
Veteran Eric Gregory and big body Jeremiah Pharms (if elevated from the practice squad again) should see time filling in for Tonga. Also, expect a big role for Cory Durden as the former undrafted free agent who bounced from the Lions to the Rams to the Giants seems to have found a role and a home in New England with Mike Vrabel.
Edge rusher Anfernee Jennings is one of the best edge setters on the roster and may work in the rotation for more early down snaps for Chaisson or Landry if the Giants’ running game gets going on Monday night.
Linebackers Robert Spillane, Jack Gibbens and Christian Ellis have extra responsibilities now with Jahlani Tavai likely out for personal reasons. They have been solid bottling up running backs behind or near the line of scrimmage for the most part this season, but that was with Williams and Tonga keeping opposing guards from reaching the second level.
For New England, the game plan will revert to their season-long strategy regardless of who is on the field. They are going to attempt to stop the Giants’ 32nd ranked rushing attack (fewest yards rushing in the NFL with just 1,494) by bottling up Tracy and Singletary, keep Dart from using his legs as a weapon, and then make them one-dimensional and use their superior cornerback trio to get the ball back to their offense.
It all starts with stopping the run. I expect there was extra focus from acting defensive coordinator Zak Kuhr to shoring that part of the game plan all week at practice. If they can do that, it will go a long way towards whether they can get to a tenth consecutive victory.
Other Factors:
The Giants are currently on kicker number three of the season. Veteran Graham Gano started the season with the job but was injured and out after week three. Irishman Jude McAtamney was called up from the practice squad but after four games he was sent down to the practice squad and later released. He missed two extra points against Denver in a game they lost by one point.
Gano returned, but the 38-year old was injured again. The Giants passed over McAtamney and brought up the former Falcons kicker Younghoe Koo, who was released after week one when he missed a 44-yard tying field goal. The Falcons have many more problems than Koo, but after dumping all their problems on him after one week they’re sitting at 4-7 in the NFC South looking up at Carolina.
Koo has been four-of-four on field goals and seven-of-eight on extra points in three games with New York. The Giants have former Pitt Panther Ben Sauls on the practice squad after signing him off Atlanta’s practice squad. Atlanta had signed Sauls, who was cut by Pittsburgh after training camp, when they replaced Koo with Patriots’ double-agent John Parker Romo. Romo, of course, acting on orders from Robert Kraft, missed the game-tying extra point in the Patriots’ 24-23 win over the Falcons.
Sauls left for the Giants’ practice squad after Atlanta bypassed him when Romo was released and signed Zane Gonzalez. Atlanta sure loves blaming their problems on the kicker, don’t they? General Manager Terry Fontenot’s seat must be pretty hot if he’s taking his anger out on kickers as the team he built crumbles and his likely top ten draft pick this year goes to the Rams because he had to trade back into the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft to get another pass rusher.
I could trash the Falcons all day (28-3), but I have so much more class than to kick Arthur Blank and sideline dancing ass during Super Bowl 51 (28-3) back on February 5, 2017. Definitely (28-3) no lingering (28-3) resentment for Atlanta (28-3). God, I love James White.
Anyway, back to the Giants, the moral of the story is that you could do much worse than Koo at kicker. Punter Jamie Gillan is my favorite punter in the NFL. Nicknamed the Scottish Hammer, the Scotsman has a strong leg and absolutely luscious flowing locks of hair spilling out of his helmet and down his back.
Gillan handled the kickoffs for Gano for a while but had his struggles there with a couple of kicking penalties against the Bears a couple of weeks ago. He followed that up with a shanked punt of 26-yards with less than three minutes to play, setting up the Bears near midfield allowing them to come from behind in the fourth quarter.
Gillan has been fine since that debacle, however, focusing on punting and letting Koo handle the kickoffs. He is second worst among punters in yards per punt, but a little better than that in net yards.
The Giants’ return units are average on punting and a bit above average on kickoff returns. Their coverage units are above average on both kick and punt return defense, having avoided any big kick or punt returns in 2025.
The Patriots coverage units have been solid if not spectacular. Per The Football Database, New England is sixth in the NFL in kick return coverage, tied with the Giants allowing just 24.0 yards average.
Punt coverage is where the worries are for the Patriots’ special teams. They have improved in the past few weeks as I started digging into the punt coverage and paying more attention. They are no longer the worst but just the ninth worst but rank 23rd punt coverage unit allowing 12.63 yards per return.
The Patriots are middle of the pack in kickoff returns, averaging 25.19 yards per return. Antonio Gibson was fantastic in the kick return game and had a 90-yard touchdown return against Miami. However, since he went to injured reserve the Patriots have had TreVeyon Henderson, Kyle Williams, Terrell Jennings, Rhamondre Stevenson and Efton Chism (who is on the practice squad) as the returner with mixed results.
The punt return game belongs to Marcus Jones as he has handled all the punts. He had an 87-yard return against Carolina for a touchdown and almost broke another as he took it 61 yards. Since then, he has had very few opportunities as opposing special teams coaches have made their punters very aware of who was back returning punts for the Patriots.
In the kicking game, New England Patriots rookie sixth-round draft pick kicker Andy Borregales has really settled in after a rough start. He missed two extra points in week two and missed a field goal in week one. Since week two he has been perfect on extra points and has missed just one field goal a few weeks back against the Jets.
Punter Bryce Baringer has been excellent in the past four games averaging between 49 and 51 yards per punt. He had a rough stretch with some wobblers against Cleveland and Tennessee. He has just four touchbacks while dropping 16 punts inside the 20 yard line.
Who can tell unless he air-mails or dirt-hops a snap, but the rookie long snapper, Julian Ashby, has been fine as far as I’ve seen so far.
Efton Chism has been on the active roster to return kicks and has been…just okay. The Patriots are middle of the pack average on returns averaging 25.26 yards per return per The Football Database. He’s used up his elevations from the practice squad, so last week Kyle Williams and Terrell Jennings were the returners.
New England is fourth in the NFL in punt returns at 14.62 yards per return. Marcus Jones remains a threat to return a punt to the house anytime and has had very limited opportunities as teams are trying to force a fair catch or kick out of bounds. The Patriots are sixth in the NFL in fair catches as punters try to play keep-away from Magnificent Marcus.
Game Pick:
The Patriots have been churning through bad teams all season and doing their job and simply racking up victories in games that they were favored. Other than the Bills in week five and in week ten against Tampa, they’ve played the schedule they earned as one of the worst teams over 2023 and 2024.
The injuries are piling up and the Patriots are desperate for their bye next week. With such a late bye week, the Patriots are clearly running out of gas. With Cincinnati blowing the doors off the Ravens on Thanksgiving night after getting Joe Burrow back and having Ja’Marr Chase back from suspension, the win last week looks a pinch more impressive.
The Giants are a better team than their record and get the boost of getting Jaxson Dart back. The game is a prime-time game on Monday Night Football which pulls New England out of their routine of 1:00 PM on Sunday games (a Sunday night, a Thursday night, and now Monday night--every other game was Sunday in the early window). Now factor in that they’re looking ahead to the bye week…ugh, another trap game.
Yes, I know I picked the Buccaneers over the Patriots, I called the Jets Thursday Night Football game a trap game, and I warned that having Joe Burrow back at practice would give the entire Bengals team a boost, and I feel like I was right and the Patriots deserve credit for stepping up and winning all three games even if in less than impressive fashion.
I am leaning into the Patriots winning a tenth consecutive game just because of Drake “Drake Maye” Maye at quarterback. While I will pick the Patriots to win the game, I am picking the Giants to cover the spread and the final score just under the 46.5 points on the under/over this week.
The Giants are in just about every game and are getting a boost getting their impressive young quarterback back to health. It is a prime time game and they are also going into a bye week and are looking at no game that they shouldn’t have a chance to win (Washington, Minnesota, Las Vegas and Dallas) and finish the season with a respectable finish.
Like Cincinnati, the Giants are going to be pumped up playing the current #1 seed in the AFC. The Patriots have gutted out the last four games: Atlanta was a one-point win thanks to a missed extra point and the defense having to make a stop; the defense made a huge fourth down stop against Tampa and Stefon Diggs made a great play on the onside kick attempt to secure the win; the Jets jumped out to an early lead giving the Patriots a scare on Thursday night; last week the Patriots came out flat and Maye had his worst quarter since week three before they just barely gutted out a win needing a huge fourth down stop by the defense.
The Patriots are tired. The Patriots are beat-up. But the Patriots have Drake Maye. That’s enough for me to pick them to win this week.
GIANTS 20 @ PATRIOTS 24
Spread: Patriots -7.5: Giants
Moneyline: Patriots -425, Giants +330: Patriots
O/U: 46.5 - Under
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