The New England Patriots’ ten game winning streak and two game lead over the Buffalo Bills evaporated in the cold New England weather as they blew an early 21-0 lead and 24-7 halftime lead against Josh Allen and the Bills.
There was much talk about the officials, questionable defensive pass interference penalties, but the Patriots had their share of stupid penalties and took their foot off the gas after a strong start on offense, defense and special teams and learned a valuable lesson about why the game doesn’t end in the NFL at halftime.
The Patriots are in position to lock up the AFC East even though they lost to Buffalo last week, as their match-up this week in Baltimore doesn’t look quite as scary as it did when the schedule came out as the Ravens are 7-7 and Lamar Jackson and the offense still don’t look quite right. Although they beat the Bengals 24-0 last week, they did not do much on offense scoring just two touchdowns.
The Patriots will close out the season with a trip to New Jersey to face the Jets in week 17--and who knows if it will be Tyrod Taylor, Justin Fields or Brady Cook at quarterback for that game--and then finish at home with the Dolphins--who are already be eliminated from the postseason and have benched their starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa--in week 18. Tagovailoa is in the first year of a four year, $212 million contract and the Dolphins could be paying him almost $100 million over the next two years to not play quarterback in Miami.
The loss to Buffalo may be the wake-up call this team desperately needed. The ten-game winning streak was a great story, but the Patriots were lucky to escape with wins multiple times against non-playoff teams during that streak as games against New Orleans, Atlanta, and Cincinnati were all games that they really should have lost considering how they played (I guess you could toss the Tampa Bay game in that mix as well).
Those games could have all been losses and we’d have the 7-7 Patriots fighting for their playoff life against the 7-7 Ravens and the possibility of finishing 10-7. At the beginning of the season, I would have considered that the best case scenario for this Patriots team. Instead, at 11-3, they have a chance to win out and still have a shot at the first overall seed in the AFC and a bye.
The Broncos are at the top and 13-2 right now, but the Broncos face a tough test down the stretch as they’re just trying to hold onto the AFC West at this point as the Chargers are charging up the standings. The Broncos face the AFC South leading Jaguars this week, and then have an AFC West grudge match against the Patrick Mahomes-less Chiefs in Kansas City before they close out the regular season in what could be for the division lead in the AFC West against the Chargers.
For New England, the formula is to clean up and correct what went wrong in the second half against Buffalo, take care of their own business with Baltimore this week flexed out into prime time on Sunday Night Football, and then finish strong against the weak sisters of the AFC East.
Last Week:
Hogwash.
One game. Heck, one bad half. It happens. It happens to good teams, great teams, and it happened to the GOAT himself, Tom Brady, many times in his career in New England. The overreaction and inability to assess a team over the entire period of time and not the last snapshot is frustrating to see, listen to and have to deal with in New England.
The sky is not falling. Yes, the run defense was not good. Yes, the kick return coverage was terrible. Yes, the offense got into a funk in the second half with a pair of three and outs and turning the ball over on downs without a first down on their final drive. But that is not how this team played the ten games prior and there’s no reason to think that they are somehow broken and can’t come back from this.
How to Watch/Listen to the Game:
The Patriots return to prime time with their game being flexed into the Sunday Night Football window. Fun fact: Pink was the first performer to perform the “Waiting All Day for Sunday Night” theme song in 2006 before being replaced by Faith Hill the next year and later Carrie Underwood.
This week’s game will be broadcast by NBC and can be seen in the Boston area on NBC 10 Boston and in the greater Providence area on WJAR-10. The game is also streaming on Peacock. The always affable Mike Tirico will handle play-by-play duties with Cris “Pro Football Focus Chairman” Collinsworth as the color analyst. Melissa Stark will work from the sidelines.
Sunday night’s game will be broadcast to a national audience on Westwood One. Ryan Radtke, the former voice of the Reno Aces, will call the game with former Falcons and Seahawks linebacker Derek Rackley providing analysis.
As always, Sunday’s game will be broadcast locally on the radio by Bob Socci on calling the play-by-play action along with former Patriots quarterback and Sports Hub “personality” Scott “Zo” Zolak providing analysis.
People forget, but Zolak did start a playoff game as quarterback in New England, filling in for an injured Drew Bledsoe for Pete Carroll’s 1998 Patriots in the Wild Card round against Jacksonville.
It was a 12-10 game early in the fourth quarter, but Mark Brunell hit Jimmy Smith for a 37-yard touchdown and that was basically the game. Zolak completed less than 50% of his passes and had a 50.4 quarterback rating but he didn’t get much help as New England rushed 35 yards on 19 carries.
The Sports Hub pregame show kicks-off at 8am for some reason with the always informative Alex Barth and Cerrone Battle. At 5:30pm, the Patriots Pregame show begins featuring the always annoying Marc “the Beetle” Bertrand and Boston Globe columnist Chris Gasper leading up to handing it off to Socci and Zo.
Key Stats:
The Patriots continue to misunderstand how home field advantage works as they are now 5-3 at Gillette Stadium and 6-0 on the road in 2025 as they host the AFC North’s second-place Baltimore Ravens in what is a must-win game for the Ravens to stay in the playoff race.
On defense last week, the Patriots allowed more than 27 points for the first time this season, as Buffalo ran off five straight touchdowns and turned a 24-7 New England lead into a 35-31 Buffalo victory.
The New England defense, with star defensive tackle Milton Williams on injured reserve and Robert Spillane out injured, has struggled with both the pass rush and run defense. While they are still sixth in points allowed and sixth in yards allowed, there are concerns.
The Patriots are now 14th in the league in passing yards allowed and 13th in net yards allowed per attempt. Josh Allen only threw for 193 yards but had three passing touchdowns and no turnovers and a 123.1 quarterback rating.
The Patriots struggled against the run against Buffalo as well, as they gave up 107 yards rushing to James Cook and Allen added another 48 yards rushing. The Patriots jumped from third in yards allowed to fifth and still second in the league with seven rushing touchdowns allowed all season. They dropped to twelfth overall in yards per attempt, allowing a 4.1 average.
Despite losing to Buffalo last week, New England’s offense is averaging 27.3 points per game remaining seventh in the league in points scored, New England is sixth in the NFL in total yards as they passed 5,000 total yards of offense for the season (all stats from Pro-Football-Reference.com, unless otherwise noted).
New England is second overall in total passing yards. While 21st in the league in rushing yards, Josh McDaniels has not abandoned the running game as the team is sixth in the NFL in rushing attempts.
Despite a down week, Maye remains the completion percentage leader as he has produced a 70.9% completion rate and 3,567 yards passing. He has 23 touchdowns passing to just seven interceptions. He is first in the league in Yards per Attempt with a 8.7 yards average.
NE Offense vs BAL Defense:
The Patriots are facing a Baltimore Ravens team that has gotten off the mat after a 1-5 start. The defense bore a big part of the blame, giving up 41 points in an opening night loss to Buffalo and letting Detroit drop 38 points and Kansas City 37 points. Those three teams are top offenses in the league, while Houston (44 points) is far from a premier unit.
The defense turned it around after that rough start, holding the Rams to 17 points and then ripping off five straight wins out of their bye week and not allowing an opponent to reach 20 points in a game.
Their streak ended with the Bengals putting up 32 points and then the Steelers adding 27 the next week to deal the Ravens back-to-back losses. Inexplicably, the defense went into Cincinnati and shut out the Bengals last week.
The defense in Baltimore has some interesting stats, as they are top-ten in third-down percentage (eighth with 36.2% conversion rate) and also Red Zone defense (seventh with a 51.9% trips allowing touchdowns).
The Zach Orr defense is 15th in the NFL allowing an average of 22.9 points per game and 23rd in total yards allowed. They are 26th in passing yards allowed but have only allowed 19 touchdowns passing. Baltimore is a bit better against the run, 15th in yards allowed and 15th in yards per attempt.
The Baltimore third down defense will be tested by the New England offense which is sixth in the league on third down conversion percentage (43.1%) but have been excellent on fourth down attempts. They are 14 of 19 on their fourth down conversions for a 73.7% success rate for the season, falling to second in the league in fourth down conversion percentage after not converting their only attempt last week.
The tough Red Zone defense in Baltimore looms as a concern as the Patriots are 24th in Red Zone TD percentage (down from 14th a little over a month ago) with just 26 of 50 trips resulting in touchdowns (52.0%).
Pass Offense:
The Baltimore pass defense has settled down after a rough start to the season. Baltimore struggled early in the season as Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes and C.J. Stroud had their way with the defense. Credit the defensive turnaround when they started playing better against Matthew Stafford and Caleb Wiliams
Facing Tua Tagovailoa, J.J. McCarthy Dillon Gabriel/Shadeur Sanders and Tyrod Taylor was hardly murderers row, but considering some of the duds New England faced this season lining up under center, no one around here is taking anything away from the Baltimore defense for playing who was on their schedule.
The Ravens’ pass defense struggled against Joe Burrow and the Bengals in week 13 before shutting them out in week 15. In between, the Steelers and Aaron Rodgers hit some big shots downfield and uncharacteristically made plays downfield against the Ravens pass defense.
The Ravens are near the bottom of the NFL in blitz rate only blitzing 23.7% of the time (per Sharp Football Analysis). They are second in the NFL in sub package rate with an extra defensive back on the field 88% of the time.
Baltimore leans into the three-safety look versus an extra cornerback most of the time. With three excellent safeties, that makes sense. 2022 first-round draft pick Kyle Hamilton can cover in the slot, take on tight ends and running backs, or blitz as a swiss army knife of the defense. Rookie first-round draft pick Malaki Starks taking the free safety role has allowed Hamilton that freedom.
That third safety? The versatile Alohi Gilman? He was only named AFC Defensive Player of the Week last week. He's been a huge part of the Ravens' defensive turnaround since Baltimore acquired him for pass rusher Odafe Oweh in a midseason trade with the Los Angeles Chargers. Many analysts have pointed to the cap space freed up in the trade by Baltimore, but Gilman played in college with Hamilton and they work together seamlessly.
Cornerbacks Marlon Humphrey and Nate Wiggins are a great one-two punch in the secondary and Baltimore will leave them in man coverage. They rank fifth in the NFL playing man coverage 31.6% of the time (per Sharp Football Analysis). The Ravens love to clog the middle of the defense with their safeties and linebackers in pass coverage and force teams to take their chances against their strong cornerbacks.
A possible depth issue could arise as third cornerback Chidobe Awuzie is injured and a game time decision. He has surprisingly been fantastic for Baltimore this season. Second-year cornerback T.J. Tampa is a huge downgrade compared to Awuzie and so this could be a huge break for New England if Awuzie can’t go Sunday night.
The other part of the Ravens’ defense that woke up in a big way last week was the pass rush. One week after not sacking Aaron Rodgers, they brought tremendous pressure on Burrow. While they sacked him three times, that pressure led to a pair of interceptions.
Rookie Mike Green leads the Ravens with 3.5 sacks and old friend Kyle Van Noy has just two in a dozen games so far. Interior defensive tackle and former UConn Husky Travis Jones has stepped up with the interior pressure as the Ravens desperately miss Nnamdi Madubuike. On the edge, the Ravens brought in Dre’Mont Jones from the Titans via trade and he and Tavius Robinson, who returned from injury last week
I don’t really know what to make of the Patriots passing offense coming off that Buffalo game. Getting to 400 total yards of offense is usually enough, however you get there. The Patriots had 246 yards on the ground thanks to two huge touchdown runs by TreVeyon Henderson. However, Drake Maye was just 14-23 passing for 155 yards with an interception on third-and-25 that pinned Buffalo inside the ten yard line and was basically a punt.
Yes, that play looked like DPI on Tre’Davious White to me, too, but if the officials don’t call it, nothing to do about it). Maye was also sacked three times with a costly one in the fourth quarter.
Most concerning about the pass game was that Mack Hollins received as many targets (eight) as Kayshon Boutte, Stefon Diggs, Hunter Henry and DeMario Douglas combined. That’s not a winning formula.
The offensive line gave up three sacks and Maye was under some pressure, but again they were not terrible by any measure against a good defense. Rookie left guard Jared Wilson returned from time off due to injury and was a big boost and a key component in New England having four rushing touchdowns.
The Buffalo defense was without top cornerback Christian Benford, but still shut down the passing game much of the day. Buffalo dialed up some fresh looks for Maye, who we should add is still only in his second season in the NFL and last season comes with an asterisk considering the mess under Jerod Mayo. This is still a young quarterback on a young team that has to learn and last week was a game that will help him long-term.
Buffalo showed different packages and disguised coverages pre-snap that caused Maye to hold the ball and doubt his reads. Credit Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott and defensive coordinator Bobby Babich for making adjustments mid-game and throwing looks at Maye he wasn’t prepared for.
If Maye learns and bounces back this week against Baltimore, it can be a positive going forward.
Run Offense:
Rookie running back TreVeyon Henderson is up to 773 yards rushing along with seven touchdowns as he had a breakout game with 148 yards rushing and two touchdowns on just 14 carries.
This was a game where again the running game disappeared along with the lead. After Buffalo scored to cut the lead to 24-21 in the third quarter, the ensuing drive was eight pass plays and no rushing attempts ending in the interception. On the next drive, Henderson took the ball 65-yards for a touchdown. Seems he could have used a few touches on the earlier drive.
Rhamondre Stevenson had only six carries but got 50 yards on the ground. Third running back D’Ernest Johnson didn’t get any touches, but Drake Maye ran in two touchdowns and had four scrambles all for touchdowns or first downs on his way to 43 yards rushing.
The Ravens’ run defense was gashed by Detroit in week three, but otherwise has held up fairly well. Since losing to Houston and allowing 167 yards rushing in week five, they’ve allowed 100 or more yards rushing in just four of their nine games and only once did a team top 120 yards.
The Ravens want to stop the run and force teams to get behind the sticks and throw into their heavy defensive back coverages. The run defense has all three safeties up in the box at times ready to step in and make a play. While Malaki Starks may be the least effective run-stuffer, Alohi Gilman and Kyle Hamilton play like linebackers and can stand-up to any running back in the NFL.
The linebacker unit took a hit with impressive fourth-round draft pick Teddye Buchanan placed on injured reserve with a torn ACL this week. Buchanan settled in as the starter next to veteran Roquan Smith and the former California Golden Bear was a solid zone defender and run-stuffer. Smith is a stud in the middle, and if the guards aren’t getting to him he can be extremely disruptive.
Behind Buchanan is Trenton Simpson, a third-round draft pick out of Clemson in 2023 who has lost his job as inside linebacker twice already in short NFL career. Simpson is a gambler who is often out of position. Josh McDaniels should be thinking about misdirection runs to get Simpson out of position and a couple big plays for TreVeyon Henderson on Sunday night.
For Baltimore, the run defense starts up front. Brent Urban and John Jenkins may not be household names, but I guarantee that the New England interior offensive linemen are well aware of these space-cloggers. In the middle is Travis Jones, who is getting attention for his improved pass rushing, but he has been a solid run defender since day one in the NFL.
The Patriots have been waiting for the run game to explode like it did against Buffalo. Unfortunately, the game got away from them and the running game was abandoned as Buffalo came back. This is something that happens with Josh McDaniels, and it is hard to justify taking the ball out of Drake Maye’s hands.
New England had 175 yards rushing in week seven against Tennessee and 177 yards against Cleveland the next week, but injuries slowed them down. While TreVeyon Henderson has trended up, Rhamondre Stevenson has taken a limited role but run more effectively with limited opportunity (and some competition).
Last week’s 246 yards against Buffalo is a bit of a situation where a good defense can struggle occasionally against the run, but Baltimore falls in that role as well. Running yards could be available for the backs and Drake Maye, but how long will McDaniels stick with the run game?
Those 246 yards were the most by New England in a game since week three in 2020 when quarterback Cam Newton, running backs Sony Michel, Rex Burkhead, J.J. Taylor and end-arounds by wide receivers N’Keal Harry and Isaiah Zuber accounted for those 250 yards against the Raiders. That feels like a million years ago.
While earlier in the year it appeared the Patriots ran to set-up the play action passing, a week like last week could make New England lean into the run game more. The Patriots have the seventh most rushing attempts in the league despite being just 13th in total yards and 17th in yards per attempt at 4.3. How dominant was the big-play run attack last week? They were 27th in the NFL with a 3.9 yards per attempt average before the Buffalo game.
With Rhamondre Stevenson back to full health after his toe injury allows the Patriots to have their “thunder and lightning” running back rotation. With both Stevenson and Henderson having above-average receiving skills, the duo allows the McDaniels to dial up almost any play without having to sub out the running back. Hopefully for New England, that strong play from last week carries over.
BAL Offense vs NE Defense
Well, what Baltimore Ravens offense is showing up on Sunday night? The rushing offense that put up 406 yards rushing combined the past two weeks against Pittsburgh and Cincinnati or the rushing attack that had just 221 yards combined on the ground against the Jets and Bengals in weeks 12 and 13?
Baltimore has the fewest pass attempts and are 27th in passing yards and 23rd in passing touchdowns. The offense struggled earlier in the season with former MVP Lamar Jackson on the sidelines and Cooper Rush under center (Tyler Huntley was pretty good in his two game stint filing in during October) and Jackson’s collection of nagging injuries has slowed his production in the passing game and as a runner.
The Patriots have been so dependent on the defense being able to get off the field on third down and get the ball back to the offense. They struggled mightily after a strong start last week in Buffalo and have dropped from seventh to eleventh in the NFL now allowing 37.5% of third down conversions. Buffalo was eight of 14 on third down and converted their only fourth down attempt last week.
The struggle on defense in New England has remained to be the Red Zone where they rank dead last. Opponents have 24 touchdowns on 32 trips for a 75.0% conversion rate. Buffalo was four of four in the red zone, with New England getting their only “stop” as the Bills were inside the Red Zone when they kneeled at the end of the game to run out the clock.
Pass Defense:
The Ravens are middle of the pack in play action, motion, and shotgun usage. They are dead last in the NFL in three-wide receiver alignment at just 38% and that usage has dropped in the past month. Baltimore is second in the league in multi-tight end usage at 52.6% just 0.2% behind the Steelers (per Sharp Football Analysis). They do use a traditional fullback with Patrick Ricard and are seventh in multiple back rate just behind Buffalo.
New England has been criticized on the radio and television for not using man coverage as frequently as these talking heads prefer, but they are eighth in the NFL in man coverage. the extra secondary players look and prefer having multiple secondary defenders on the field (usually three cornerbacks and two safeties). The Patriots are fifth in the NFL as far as Sub Package Rate (five or more defensive backs) and any defensive alignment without their three cornerbacks on it does not bode well for the Patriots playing to their strengths.
Baltimore runs the passing offense through their tight ends and their speedy slot receiver, just like Buffalo last week. Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely are the pass receiving duo at tight end. Andrews has 40 receptions for 359 yards and Likely has 22 catches for 248 yards.
Andrews is the zone killer and Red Zone threat while Likely works vertically attacking the defense with more athleticism and speed. Charlie Kolar is the third tight end and blocker who is a sneaky good receiver if you sleep on him.
At wide receiver, speedy Boston College alumni Zay Flowers is a menace in the slot. He leads the Ravens with 71 catches for 959 yards. Flowers has 600 yards more than the second receiver on the team (Andrews). With 100 targets, Flowers is targeted more than all other wide receivers on the roster.
Rashod Bateman is the bigger receiver who is also their deep threat. He had been sidelined but should return this week. Veteran DeAndre Hopkins has lost a step and doesn’t have the athleticism of his youth, but he is savvy and can still find room in a zone and work the sideline with his long frame.
New England has to figure out how to handle Andrews and Likely while locking on to Flowers. Unless they get Baltimore in third and long situations, the Ravens are going to watch the tape of Buffalo and two and three tight end packages attacking the New England secondary and linebackers in coverage and copy that until the Patriots stop them.
The New England secondary played a ton of zone against Buffalo, leaving a spy to try and control the scrambling of Josh Allen. Allen still hurt them with a 20 yard run and had 48 yards on 11 carries (counting kneel-downs). Expect more zone as New England is going to try and limit a mobile quarterback again with Lamar Jackson.
Jackson is probably the most dangerous running quarterback in the NFL and he uses that threat to his advantage as a passer. Facing little man-to-man and extra defensive linemen and linebackers, he feasts on opposing defenses in the passing game by extending plays outside the pocket and giving his receivers time to work open.
The key to slowing Jackson is containing him in the pocket with disciplined edge rushers and interior pressure. With interior pass rusher Milton Williams on injured reserve with a high ankle sprain and out for a while, the Patriots also have Christian Barmore questionable to play with a new knee injury making his status Sunday night unlikely to play.
Cory Durden, Joshua Farmer and Eric Gregory are not even close to the pass rushing force that Williams or Barmore is for the Patriots. However, they need to find a way to contain Jackson and keep him from escaping the pocket and extending plays or running for first downs.
Harold Landry is still banged up and K’Lavon Chaisson has cooled after a strong start to the season. Whether it is fifth-round draft pick Bradyn Swinson or undrafted rookie Elijah Ponder, New England needs to get the youngsters some opportunity to get their young and fresh legs on the field and not wear out Chaisson and Landry before the postseason.
This defensive front--so strong at the beginning of the season--has worn down due to injuries and lack of depth. The Patriots need to get these players some rest before the playoffs.
Baltimore thrives on the left side of the offensive line with left tackle Ronnie Stanley. Stanley is a beast still as a run blocker but has lost a step as a pass blocker. However, the veteran is still well above-average. Right tackle Roger Rosengarten is a development in progress who has his share of hiccups but is strong and improving.
Third-year guard Andrew Vorhees on the left and fourth-year pro Daniel Faalale on the right are usually solid when it comes to blocking for the run, but they struggle mightily as pass protectors. The loss of Williams and probably Barmore as well is a missed opportunity for New England’s strong interior to dominate.
Of course, the Ravens still have All-Pro center Tyler Linderbaum in the middle, who does a lot to cover for Vorhees and Faalale. The Ravens have rookie third-round pick Emery Jones who had seemed to be taking snaps from Vorhees but instead has been related to the bench. Veteran Laken Tomlinson has been added to the practice squad and could be elevated and suspended guard Ben Cleveland isn’t eligible to return until week 18.
All of this offensive line instability leaves Baltimore as the fourth-worst offensive line in pressure rate allowed (41.0%), just behind the Jets, Chargers and Browns. In no blitz pressure rate the Ravens are third-worst, jumping ahead of the Jets per Sharp Football Analysis,
The Patriots’ defense needs to take advantage of this weak offensive line and pressure Jackson and shut down the passing game. With the injuries in the front seven, that becomes a huge question mark.
At least New England should have the advantage with their strong secondary. Christian Gonzalez can help out on the tight ends with his length but may be responsible for the deep threat Bateman. Veteran Carlton Davis (questionable to play and on the injury report) will likely take Deandre Hopkins if he goes on Sunday night when they play man coverage with Marcus Jones (on the injury report this week but indicating he will play) seeing a lot of Zay Flowers.
The loss of Robert Spillane in the middle of the defense takes away a key pass defender as well, as he has matched up against tight ends in coverage all season. Christian Ellis, Jahvani Talai and Jack Gibbens are tough, but not natural coverage linebackers. This may be a week where Marte Mapu and newly signed Chad Muma take snaps on passing downs.
Run Defense:
The Ravens are going to come out intent on testing the New England run defense. Why not? No Milton Williams, Christian Barmore questionable and likely a game time decision, and other than Khyiris Tonga there are questions about the depth of the New England interior defenders. This run defense was springing leaks before Milton Williams went on injured reserve and struggled last week against Buffalo.
Tonga and Cory Durden provide beef up front, but the Patriots need to set the edge not just to slow the running backs but also quarterback Lamar Jackson. Edge rushers K’Lavon Chaisson and Harold Landry (who is questionable with a lingering knee injury) are solid setting the edge, although New England may trade off pass rush for edge setting and playing more Anfernee Jennings, who is their best edge run defender.
Linebacker Robert Spillane is already ruled out for the game and like last week is a huge loss. Spillane is the heart and soul of the defense in the middle handling assignments and above-average as a pass defender beyond his hard-hitting run-stuffing ability. With Spillane out, Christian Ellis, Jahlani Tavai and Jack Gibbens pick up more snaps.
The New England run defense has struggled since week ten when Tampa Bay rolled (113 yards), and then they struggled against the Jets (140 yards), the Bengals (120 yards), the Giants (111 yards) and last week against Buffalo (168 yards).
The Buccaneers offensive line was winning up front and making room for Sean Tucker and Rachaad White. The Jets were a load with Justin Fields and Breece Hall before they inexplicably stopped using Fields as a dual threat runner. The Bengals took advantage of New England losing Khyiris Tonga and already missing Milton Williams to pile up 120 yards on just 23 carries. The Giants were led by former Bills running back Devin Singletary rushing for 68 yards with Tyrone Tracy adding 36 yards on the ground.
Last week saw Allen make plays with his legs and pile up 48 yards rushing. James Cook piled up 107 yards on just 22 carries. New England kept Cook from making any explosive runs (long of 12 yards) he still found the end zone twice.
Expect a continuing big role for Cory Durden as the former undrafted free agent who bounced from the Lions to the Rams to the Giants seems to have found a regular role and now is picking up extra playing time in Milton Williams’ absence. Without Barmore, the Patriots have rookie Joshua Farmer on the 53-man and the Patriots will need to elevate from the Practice Squad, where the choices are Fabien Lovett, Jeremiah Pharms, and Leonard Taylor.
Baltimore has a one-two punch of running back Derrick Henry and quarterback Lamar Jackon. Henry remains one of the few true RB1s as he gets the ball repeatedly and rarely is off the field. He already has 1,125 yards and ten touchdowns in 14 games. At six-foot-two and 252 yards, there are few running backs as difficult to bring down as King Henry.
Lamar Jackson has run the ball less this season due to his assortment of injuries, with the ball tucked and headed up field. Allen had 78 yards rushing last week on just nine carries. With 12 rushing touchdowns and 487 yards on the ground, Allen is a threat not only to extend plays and make plays in the passing game, but a threat to make an impact rushing the ball.
Baltimore will give Henry occasional rest with running backs Keaton Mitchell and Rasheen Ali. Mitchell is a burner and big-play threat with the ball in his hands. He had 66 yards on the ground last week versus Cincinnati and with Justice Hill on injured reserve last week he should continue getting opportunities.
Baltimore also features second-year running back Rasheen Ali playing as the third down back. He’s a solid chip blocker and receiver but hasn’t had many opportunities on the ground.
The offensive line in Buffalo is much better run blocking as the Ravens are fifth in the NFL in yards allowed before contact per rush at 1.7 yards. Getting bodies on Henry before he gets up to speed is essential to slowing him down. If he is not being touched until two or three yards downfield, it is going to be a long day for New England.
For New England, this game will test their beat-up defense and Baltimore is unlikely to abandon the run even if the New England run defense starts strong. With the third-ranked run offense in the NFL, the Ravens are going to be a handful for New England.
Other Factors:
The Patriots kickoff coverage unit dropped from fifth in the NFL before the Buffalo game to 11th per The Football Database, New England was allowing just 23.96 yards per return average before getting lit up by Ray Davis who repeatedly gave the Bills great field position averaging 41.0 yards per return.
Punt coverage, which had been a concern going into the game for the Patriots’ special teams, allowed just one return for 12 yards. They have improved in the past few weeks as I started digging into the punt coverage and paying more attention. They are no longer the worst but rank 24th in punt coverage allowing 12.60 yards per return.
The Patriots are middle of the pack in kickoff returns, averaging 25.18 yards per return. Antonio Gibson was fantastic in the kick return game and had a 90-yard touchdown return against Miami. However, since he went to injured reserve the Patriots have had TreVeyon Henderson, Kyle Williams, Terrell Jennings, Rhamondre Stevenson and Efton Chism as the returner with mixed results. It seems like Chism and Williams are the choice to handle the job.
The number two ranked punt return unit (17.29 yards per return) in the NFL belongs to Marcus Jones as he has handled all the punts. He had an 87-yard return against Carolina for a touchdown and almost broke another as he took it 61 yards. Against the Giants, he broke open the floodgates with a 94-yard touchdown return where the blocking allowed him to run untouched until the Scottish Hammer got a fingernail on him as the last man to beat.
In the kicking game, New England Patriots rookie sixth-round draft pick kicker Andy Borregales has really settled in after a rough start to his rookie season. He missed two extra points in week two and missed a field goal in week one. Since week two he has been perfect on extra points and has missed just a pair of field goals. Borregales hit all four extra points and a 36-yard field goal versus Buffalo.
Punter Bryce Baringer still had an inconvenient wobbler every once in a while but overall has been solid. Rookie long snapper, Julian Ashby, has been fine but has had some poor snaps on occasion in the punting game.
Tyler Loop handles the kicking for Baltimore and the sixth-round draft pick has been fantastic for the Ravens, missing just two extra points and two field goals all season. Both misses were over 50 yards.
Jordan Stout handles the punting and is averaging 50.9 yards per punt. The former fourth round draft pick in 2022 (yes, that’s not a typo) upped his game this year. However, distance isn’t important with Marcus Jones back receiving, hang time and placement matter much more.
Running backs Rasheen Ali and Keaton Mitchell handle the kickoffs and rookie and former Colorado Buffalo LaJohntay Wester handles all the punt returns. The Ravens are 15th in kick return average (25.97 yards average) and ninth in punt returns (12.47 yards average) per the Football Database.
Head coach John Harbaugh always has strong special teams units and this year is not different. The punt return defense is fifth in the NFL allowing just an average of 7.05 yards per return. They are eighth in kickoff return coverage allowing just a 24.95 yards per return average.
Game Pick:
The Patriots, at 11-3 and leading the AFC East, are three point underdogs on the road against a second-place Baltimore Ravens team that is 7-7. The Ravens looked great beating up on the woebegone Bengals last week, bouncing back from getting it handed to them by the Steelers and Aaron Rodgers.
The Patriots blew a 21-0 and 24-7 lead to Buffalo as Drake Maye struggled, even though the offense ran for 246 yards. The defense struggled against the run while Buffalo did not have to throw the ball much.
Like Buffalo last week, the Ravens need the win desperately. The Patriots need to match the intensity and not have these breakdowns on both sides of the ball after a strong start.
Unfortunately, I was right that the Bills would win last week. However, I am not part of the media that overreacts to the first loss since week three against a team that is solid top to bottom on both sides of the ball and has won the AFC East five straight years.
The Ravens aren’t the Bills. The Patriots have yet to lose on the road. I expect Mike Vrabel’s team to get off the mat after being punched in the mouth and punch back.
It may be ugly, but I think New England will bounce back on the road again this week.
PATRIOTS 22 @ RAVENS 18
Spread: Ravens -3: Patriots
Moneyline: Ravens -148, Patriots +124: Patriots
O/U: 48.5: Under
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