The New England Patriots’ won their most thrilling comeback victory since Super Bowl 51 (aka, the 28-3 game against the Falcons) as Drake Maye bounced back from a second-half collapse against the Bills the week prior to storm back from an 11-point fourth quarter deficit to beat the Ravens on a chilly Sunday night in Baltimore 28-24.
There was much talk about the officials, questionable defensive pass interference and offensive pass interference penalties called on the Patriots, and an egregious defensive pass interference penalty not called on Baltimore, but the Patriots showed that they learned a valuable lesson against Buffalo and fought until the end on Sunday night against a desperate foe fighting for their playoff life.
The Patriots are in position to clinch the AFC East with a win this week in the wilds of East Rutherford, NJ as they face the Jets. New England gets their first look at former Missouri quarterback Brady Cook as Justin Fields--who looked unstoppable on his first drive of the game in week eleven against the Patriots until offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand stopped calling designed quarterback runs--was put on injured reserve, likely ending his time in New York as the Jets seem prepared to eat the remaining $10 million guaranteed on his contract and take another swing a bridge quarterback or try to draft one.
The Patriots will finish the 2025 NFL regular season next week in Foxboro against their AFC East rivals the Miami Dolphins--who are currently 6-9 and already eliminated from the postseason and have benched their franchise quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa, in favor of seventh-round draft pick former Longhorns’ quarterback Quinn Ewers.
Tagovailoa, drafted by Miami one spot ahead of Justin Herbert, is in the first year of a four year, $212 million contract and the Dolphins could be paying him almost $100 million over the next two years to not play quarterback in Miami.
The loss to Buffalo turned out to be the wake-up call this Patriots team desperately needed. The ten-game winning streak was a great story, but the Patriots were lucky to escape with wins multiple times against non-playoff teams during that streak as games against New Orleans, Atlanta, and Cincinnati were all games that they really should have lost considering how they played (throw the Tampa Bay game in that mix as well).
At 12-3, they are behind the 12-3 Denver Broncos for the top seed in the AFC due to tiebreakers, but they have a chance to win out and still have a shot at the first overall seed in the AFC and a bye.
The Broncos lost last week at home against Jacksonville and face a tough test down the stretch. The Chargers are just a game back and they play each other in week 18. The Chargers, if they win and have the same record as Denver, they would win the West via the head-to-head tiebreaker having already beat Denver early in the season. If New England wins out, they get the top seed and the bye in that situation.
First and foremost for New England, they need to take care of business in New Jersey. The Jets are an obstacle in the road to the playoffs for the Patriots and they need to be all business on Sunday afternoon.
Last Week:
The Patriots went into Baltimore and ended up in a bare-knuckle brawl. Figuratively, of course, not literally. The game was probably one of the most physical games I’ve seen New England in since probably 2019 or so.
The bad news? Those physical games take a toll. The Patriots have three players currently in concussion protocol: star rookie running back TreVeyon Henderson, starting rookie left guard Jared Wilson, and starting wide receiver Kayshon Boutte.
Also, starting defensive tackle Khyiris Tonga is expected to be out on Sunday after he suffered a foot injury against Baltimore and had to leave the game. Slot receiver DeMario Douglas suffered a hamstring injury during the Ravens game that will likely sideline him as well.
Rookie defensive lineman Joshua Farmer, finally in line for significant playing time with injuries along the defensive line, injured his hamstring and was placed on injured reserve this week.
Right tackle Morgan Moses, who suffered a knee injury and was out during the first half against the Ravens, came back in the game and played through the injury in the second half when his backup at right tackle, Thayer Munford, also suffered a knee injury and couldn’t continue. Both right tackles could be out against the Jets.
Finally, cornerback Carlton Davis, who had been questionable for the Baltimore game, left the game on the second-to-last-defensive play with an apparent injury, though his status for Sunday is unclear. Backup Charles Woods, who has been a pleasant surprise in the secondary since Alex Austin mysteriously landed on injured reserve last month, injured his ankle and is questionable to play on Sunday.
Marcus Jones, Harold Landry, Christian Ellis and Davis were all on the injury report last week but played, so their status bears watching this week as well.
Oh, was I supposed to have good news? How about Milton Williams being designated to return from injured reserve and could play on Sunday? Yeah, that would be a boost to the defense. So would a return to health for starting linebacker Robert Spillane who could trend towards playing, but the Patriots may choose to be extra cautious with him and not risk him re-aggregating his ankle injury.
Beyond injuries, the important details from the game was the Patriots took a punch and punched back. Down 11 points in the fourth quarter, Drake Maye led back-to-back fourth quarter drives of 73 and 89 yards to take the lead. The defense made a pair of key stops forcing a punt and then forcing a fumble as the turnover allowed Maye to run out the clock and send the Patriots home with a hard-fought 28-24 victory.
How to Watch/Listen to the Game:
Amin is the television announcer for the Chicago Bulls and previously worked at ESPN. He’s actually not half bad and handles the game quite well. Drew Brees just does not belong in a broadcast booth, but after the drunken crimes of Mark Sanchez cost him his job at Fox, the network was desperate. Brees was on NBC for a year after retirement from playing, but he was so bad he was immediately out the door.
Sunday's game will be broadcast to a national audience on Sports USA. Larry Kahn will call the game with Brandon Noble providing analysis. Khan at least is the “A-team” announcer for Sports USA. The former play-by-play announcer for the MLB Angels is one of the best radio broadcasters. Noble was a star defensive tackle at Penn State and nine-year NFL player.
As always, Sunday’s game will be broadcast locally on the radio by Bob Socci on calling the play-by-play action along with former Patriots quarterback and Sports Hub “personality” Scott “Zo” Zolak providing bewildering noises and grunts and yelps that passes for game analysis around here.
Key Stats:
The offense and defense woke up, and after three TreVeyon Henderson touchdowns, the Patriots won handily 27-14. They piled up 336 yards after a slow start and held the Jets to just 245 total yards (all stats from Pro-Football-Reference.com, unless otherwise noted).
On defense last week, the Patriots allowed more than 100 yards rushing for the sixth straight week after only two teams were able to rush for 100 or more yards during the first nine weeks of the season. The 171 yards rushing for Baltimore topped the 168 yards rushing the Bills had piled up the prior week.
The New England defense, with star defensive tackle Milton Williams on injured reserve and Robert Spillane out injured, has struggled with both the pass rush and run defense. While they are still seventh in points allowed and seventh in yards allowed, there are concerns on defense.
The Patriots are 11th in the league in passing yards allowed after the impotent Ravens passing offense threw for just 159 yards. As teams have had success running the ball, the pass defense has tightened up as the Patriots have not allowed a team to accumulate 200 or more total passing yards since week ten against Baker Mayfield and the Bucs.
The Patriots are 15th in net yards allowed per passing attempt and have allowed 24 passing touchdowns (17th in the NFL).
Despite Derrick Henry rushing 18 times for 128 yards and a pair of touchdowns, New England’s run defense measured by total yards allowed on the ground ticked up to sixth in league and they are third in rushing touchdowns allowed. They dropped from 12th overall to 14th in rush yards per attempt, allowing a 4.2 average.
Showing remarkable consistency, New England has scored between 23 and 33 points in every game since week five. The offense is averaging 27.3 points per game remaining seventh in the league in points scored, New England is sixth in the NFL in total yards as they passed 5,000 total yards of offense for the season..
New England is fourth overall in total passing yards and 16th in the league in total rushing yards. TreVeyon Henderson leads the team with 776 yards rushing with Rhamondre Stevenson behind him with 425 yards on the ground. In the passing game, Stefon Diggs has 76 receptions for 869 yards and is in the range of 1,000 yards receiving. Hunter Henry leads the team with six receiving touchdowns.
Topping 300 yards passing for the first time in his career, Maye remains the completion percentage leader as he has produced a 70.9% completion rate and is up to 3,947 yards passing. He has 25 touchdowns passing to just eight interceptions. He remains first in the league in Yards per Attempt with a 8.7 yards average.
Maye leads the NFL after week sixteen with a 73.4 QBR and has a 108.5 quarterback rating while averaging 263.1 passing yards per game. The MVP candidate needs a strong finish as competitors Matthew Stafford and Trevor Lawrence are neck-and-neck with him.
NE Offense vs NYJ Defense:
The Jets already traded away defensive stars Quinnen Williams and Sauce Gardiner. Linebackers Jamien Sherwood (a disappointment this season after signing a hefty extension) and Quincy Williams (a free agent not expected to return) along with edge rushers Will McDonald and Jermaine Johnson are the remaining starters on defense from last year (Johnson was injured in week two last season and missed the remainder of the year) as the Jets have cleaned house.
The Jets’ defense ranks 30th out of 32 teams in points allowed, although they’re only 22nd in yards allowed. That puts some of the blame on that pathetic offense giving opponents good field position.
However, as has been repeatedly noted throughout the year, this defense struggles to create turnovers. They’re dead last in the NFL in turnovers with just four, and they have zero interceptions.
The defense is just 13th in passing yards allowed, but they’ve also allowed 27 passing touchdowns. The Jets are 28th against the run allowing over 2,000 yards through 15 games and a 4.4 yards per rush average.
The Jets’ defense actually does a decent job of getting the opponents off the field. Unfortunately, the offense keeps giving the ball back almost immediately and wears this unit down. New York is just ninth in third-down defense (36.3% third down conversion rate allowed), but 29th in fourth-down conversion rate (11 of 15 for 73.35 fourth down conversion rate allowed).
In the Red Zone, the Jets are 21st in touchdown rate, allowing opponents to reach the end zone on 34 of a whopping 57 trips inside the 20 yard line.
Pass Offense:
The Jets had one of the most talented and highly paid cornerback groupings last season with Sauce Gardner, D.J. Reed, and Michael Carter. Reed was allowed to leave in free agency in the offseason, Carter was traded to Philadelphia at the end of October. Gardner was flipped to Indianapolis for a pair of first round picks a week later.
Now, the Jets are starting last year’s fifth-round draft pick Qwan’tez Stiggers, overpaid free agent signing Brandon Stephens, and undrafted free agent Jordan Clark from Notre Dame at the nickel. At safety, rookie fourth-round draft pick out of Alabama Malachi Moore and undrafted free agent from Fresno State Dean Clark are the starters.
Stiggers did not play college football, which makes for an awesome story. He played in the now dormant 7-on-7 FCF Canadian Football league and made the Toronto Argonauts after a tryout. He was spectacular and then starred in the East West Shrine Bowl catching the NFL teams eyes as he was draft eligible. The Jets snagged him in the fifth round and he made his mark on special teams last year before finally getting to start in December this year.
The Jets play a lot of man-coverage under Aaron Glenn, ranking sixth in the NFL with a 30.7% rate (per Sharp Football Analysis). They are middle of the pack in the NFL in sub package rate with an extra defensive back on the field 68% of the time. They’re 11th in the NFL in Blitz Rate, bringing extra rushers 27.9% of the time.
The strength of the New York defense is their edge rush, which seems odd since they are 29th in the NFL in sacks (25). However, they boast two young first-round draft picks in Will McDonald (2023) and Jermaine Johnson (2022). McDonald has been their best pass rusher with eight sacks so far this season. Johnson looked prime to break out last year but tore his Achilles in week two. He returned this year but injured his ankle in week one and missed a few games and has struggled to get back to his 2023 form as he has just three sacks.
McDonald has fought through knee and ankle injuries this season. Seemingly clear of the nagging knee injury, he popped back on the injury report this week apparently having re-aggravated his knee injury. He was declared out on Friday, so next in line is the underwhelming Michael Clemons, who had a career high 4.5 sacks last year but has just one this season.
After trading Quinnen Williams to Dallas, the Jets have struggled to get pressure in the middle of the defense. Jowon Briggs, a seventh-round draft pick by the Browns in 2024, was picked up in a preseason trade and has been the only interior lineman capable of pushing the pocket, leading the way with four sacks this season.
Last week, the Jets were carved up through the air by the New Orleans Saints and rookie quarterback Tyler Shough. They only allowed Shough one touchdown through the air (Gadget guy Taysom Hill threw the other), but he totalled 308 yards passing. The Jets did get to him three times for sacks and forced New Orleans to have to kick five field goals.
Beyond trading away two starters and swapping a competent cornerback for Brandon Stephens in free agency, the Jets are also missing rookie cornerback and third-round draft pick Azareye’h Thomas and trade acquisition Jarvis Brownlee, who are both on injured reserve. Starting safety Tony Adams and free agent signing Andre Cisco--who were expected to be the veteran leadership for this group--are both also on injured reserve.
The Baltimore game was a fantastic test for second-year quarterback Drake Maye as he was able to shake off some adversity and lead the Patriots to a come-from-behind victory on the road in prime time a week after they stagnated and couldn’t recover against the Bills the week before.
Maye topped 300 yards passing for the first time in his career (thank God I never have to hear about that ever again!) showing no fear of two-time All Pro and four-time Pro Bowl cornerback Marlon Humphrey, targeting him repeatedly in coverage. Although Humphrey had the only interception Maye threw, Stefon Diggs (nine catches for 138 yards) and Mack Hollins (seven receptions for 69 yards) repeatedly made plays in the passing game with Humphrey in coverage.
As usual, Maye got just about everyone involved, as Hunter Henry had six catches and a touchdown, Kyle Williams made another great play in the end zone winning on a beautiful 37-yard touchdown and Austin Hooper had a 26-yard catch.
Kayshon Boutte and DeMario Douglas were both injured and left the Ravens game--Douglas with a hamstring and Boutte with a concussion. Hollins has shown up on the injury report this week with an abdomen injury. Douglas is still questionable before the game, but Hollins and Boutte--two extremely valuable outside receivers--are both ruled out for Sunday.
The offensive line gave up three sacks--all in the first half--and other than Maye’s fumble before the half, the sacks weren’t a big deal. He was under some pressure, but in the second half he was able to get in rhythm, especially in the fourth quarter, and frustrate the Ravens.
Jared Wilson is out due to a concussion at left guard and that puts Ben Brown back into the starting lineup. Not the powerful road-grader like the rookie has been, Brown is competent and capable stepping in at guard or center. New England also added Brenden Jaimes from the practice squad to the roster for another layer of depth at guard and center.
Right tackle was a concern after the Baltimore game as both starter Morgan Moses and backup Thayer Munford left the game with a knee injury. Rookie seventh-round draft pick Marcus Bryant should be in the mix as well, although it appears Moses and Munford should be good to go on Sunday.
The injuries at wide receiver are a concern. Returner Efton Chism, like Stefon Diggs and Douglas, is smaller and better in the slot. That is an undersized unit this week with only rookie Kyle Williams as the outside receiver with size and length.
The Patriots have Jeremiah Webb, John Jiles, and former Cowboys, Cardinals and Jets receiver Brandon Smith on the practice squad. One or more could be elevated for Sunday with Smith, despite his size and practice squad experience for four teams, the least likely as he and veteran running back Elijah Mitchell will need some time to acclimate to the offense enough to contribute.
Webb is a smaller receiver but played well in the preseason. Jiles had the requisite size and was on the practice squad all last season giving him the slight advantage for a potential elevation.
Run Offense:
Rookie running back TreVeyon Henderson had been on fire in November and December before the Sunday night game in Baltimore. Limited to just three yards on five rushes, the dynamic game-changed exited with a concussion. He is in the protocol this week and his status for Sunday is up in the air, but he is more likely than not going to sit the game out.
Fortunately, Rhamondre Stevenson returned to health after his own injury struggles this month and he stepped in with a key 23-yard catch and the game-winning 21-yard touchdown run late in the fourth quarter to complete the comeback win in Baltimore.
This was a game where the Patriots had 23 straight dropbacks to pass between the third quarter at 8:36 when Stevenson was stopped for no gain and his touchdown run. Like against Buffalo, the Patriots had seemingly given up any attempt to run the football, even though they were only behind by less than a touchdown most of the time.
Stevenson’s touchdown run hopefully was the wake-up call to offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels that a healthy run game is important--and especially will be in the playoffs.
Back-up running back D’Ernest Johnson got on the field for one offensive play on Sunday night although he didn’t get to touch the football. Steenson rushed for 51 yards on eight carries and Drake Maye had a 16-yard scramble as well.
The Jets’ run defense has had some issues in 2025, but last week versus the Saints they had their fifth game allowing less than 100 yards. Of course, they’re 0-5 when they hold teams under 100 yards rushing.
The Jets’ wins have been more about the opponent’s beating themselves. They beat Cincinnati 39-38 despite allowing 398 total yards to Joe Flacco and the Bengals offense, including 181 yards on the ground. They beat the Browns despite having just 42 net yards passing, scoring two of their touchdowns on special teams returns. Finally, their win against the Falcons when the defense allowed a Kirk Cousins offense to total 389 yards of total offense and 142 yards on the ground from Bijan Robinson.
Inside linebacker Quincy Williams is third on the team in sacks with 3.5 as a blitzer. Fellow inside linebacker Jamien Sherwood, given a 3-year, $45 million contract extension with $30 million guaranteed this spring and was briefly benched in October after struggling earlier in the season.
Sherwood, to his credit, has bounced back since the benching and been the Jets’ best run defender. In week sixteen against the Saints, he was everywhere on the game film making plays at the line of scrimmage. Rookie linebacker Kiko Mauigoa is not available to play with a neck injury.
On the defensive line, Harrison Phillips, a preseason acquisition via trade with the Vikings, has been a solid piece up front while the massive former Jaguar and Bengal Jay Tufele is also part of the rotation. Tufele has been on the injured list with a foot injury and was ruled out for Sunday. Philips has a nagging knee injury but isn’t expected to miss time.
The defensive line may not generate much pass rush, but they have had success against the run on occasion. One of those occurrences was on the Thursday night matchup against the Patriots in week 11 when they held them to just 65 yards rushing. The Patriots were without Stevenson and Henderson needed 19 carries to total the 62 yards, although he did score two touchdowns on the ground that night.
Again, the Patriots are in the same situation of not being able to get Stevenson and Henderson healthy at the same time. Stevenson should be more than capable of carrying the load for a week.
Jared Wilson was lost at left guard due to a concussion on Sunday night while right tackle Morgan Moses and backup Thayer Munford both were out of the game with knee injuries. Moses, one of the toughest players in the NFL, returned to the game at well less than 100% and gutted his way to the finish.
Ben Brown is likely to start at left guard with Wilson in concussion protocol and likely to miss the game Sunday. Right tackle is up in the air with both Moses and Munford limited in practice this week. If neither can go, rookie seventh-round draft pick Marcus Bryant would be next in line to start after being a healthy scratch last week.
NYJ Offense vs NE Defense
Cook isn’t starting because he gives the Jets the best chance to win this week. He’s starting because the Jets need to improve their own draft position and evaluate if Cook can be the back-up quarterback of the future. Fields is on injured reserve and Taylor is 36 years old and there is absolutely zero reason he should be on the field for a 3-12 team building for the future.
Head coach Aaron Glenn brought former Lions pass game coordinator Tanner Engstrand with him to New York making the 43 year old a first time offensive coordinator. Engstrand has the Jets ninth in motion rate, using it 58.6% of the time. Play-action rate, however, is another story as the Jets are 30th in usage at just 12.3% (per Sharp Football Analysis).
The running game of Breece Hall (954 yards rushing) has been the only bright spot on offense this season as he has the Jets ranking tenth in rushing yards and eighth in yards per attempt (4.6 yards). Despite all the talk before the season of a running back committee, second-year back and former Wisconsin star Braelon Allen lasted just four games injuring his MCL on a kick return.
Last week the Saints focused on bottling up Hall (54 yards on 16 attempts) and challenged Cook to beat them through the air. Cook, who has one touchdown and six interceptions in three games, was not up to the task. He was sacked eight times and after the defense set the offense up on the second play of the game recovering a fumble, the offense could only muster a pair of field goals.
The Jets had one drive longer than 30 yards and failed to do anything after a 15-yard penalty and an unaccounted for Isaiah Davis running for 25 yards on a catch-and-run on a shallow crosser early in the second quarter to set-up a field goal, that was it for the Jets’ offense.
The struggle on defense on initial and early drives continued for New England last week after they allowed Baltimore to march down the field without any resistance and fell into a 7-0 hole. Forcing turnovers saved the Patriots, as they shifted momentum in the first half with the Derrick Henry fumble punched out by Jaylinn Hawkins. They ended the game when K’Lavon Chaisson ran down Zay Flowers and punched out the ball.
The Patriots struggled in the Red Zone on offense with an interception on their first drive inside the 20. Although not in the Red Zone, the Patriots were in field goal range in a tie game inside of 30 seconds before the half when Maye fumbled away the chance for a halftime lead. These are the situational football mistakes that Maye needs to learn from going forward as part of his continued development.
On defense, the Red Zone struggles continued as Baltimore went two-for-three scoring touchdowns each time inside the 20 yard line. New England ranks 32nd and opponents have 26 touchdowns on 35 trips for a 74.3% conversion rate. Their only “stop” was when the Ravens reached the Red Zone on third down before the half and kicked the tying field goal.
Pass Defense:
The Jets’ problems in the passing game start up front. The offensive line, despite high first-round draft picks on the left and right tackle positions, has struggled mightily in pass protection in 2025. First round draft pick in 2024 Olu Fashanu played better on the right side last year, but had to slide to the left side to make room for 2025 first round draft pick Armand Membou who is exclusively able to play on the right side of the line.
They both have growing pains but show promise of developing into a pair of foundational pieces in the future. They have some lessons being learned in pass blocking as both are much better moving and getting involved in run-blocking.
The interior line is where things went sideways. Former first-round pick Alijah Vera-Tucker tore his triceps in a blocking drill before the season, needing surgery and out of the year for the third time in his five NFL seasons.
Left guard John Simpson was supposed to be a glue piece after a strong 2024 season. Instead, the former Raven has likely played his way out of town with a huge step back this season. At center, 2023 second-round draft pick Joe Tippman was beat out by journeyman Josh Myers. When Vera-Tucker went out, Tippman became the right guard by default.
Despite a settled line that has been healthy and together almost all season, the Jets are sixth in pressure rate allowed at 39.9% (per Sharp Football Analysis). Some of that is due to mobile quarterbacks like Justin Fields and Tyrod Taylor trying to extend plays and inviting pressure instead of getting the ball out on schedule, and especially with the inexperienced Brady Cook under center.
The Jets use a lot of pre-snap motion to try and help their limited quarterbacks before the play, ninth in the NFL at 58.6%. However, their lack of play-action rate (29th in the NFL at 12.3%) belies the need to help the offensive line and quarterback, particularly with a strong running back like Breece Hall.
Part of the lack of play-action rate is due to the offense running from the shotgun. With offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand part of the Detroit Lions/Dan Campbell system, the Jets are eighth in shotgun snaps at a 74.0% rate. Along with being in shotgun, the Jets are in three-wide receiver sets 67.6% of the time, the fourth highest usage in the league. Despite having three solid tight ends (when Taylor is healthy), the Jets refuse to play to their strengths and are 24th in multi-tight end sets at just 25.1%.
Top passing target and rookie second-round draft pick Mason Taylor is out putting additional pressure on the new young wide receiver group. With franchise wide receiver Garrett Wilson sidelined for the year, Adonai Mitchell (acquired in the Sauce Gardner trade), John Metchie (acquired from the Eagles in the Michael Carter trade) and Isaiah Williams (signed off Cincinnati's practice squad) are capitalizing by using the time to push for a future role on offense.
Mitchell is still only 23 years old, with great size, top-end speed, and excellent athleticism. The Colts gave up on him, however, because of the drops. All the tools, but hands of stone. He got behind Christian Gonzalez a few times in the first match-up but couldn’t complete the play. That was his problem in Indianapolis and it has carried over to the Jets.
While Mitchell has just 21 receptions in six games in New York, those came on 46 targets and he has a very low 43.5% success rate. The quarterbacks are part of the problem, but other than what appeared to be a breakout game versus the Falcons (eight catches on a dozen targets for 102 yards), he’s had just 177 yards combined in the other five games.
Metchie hasn’t been much better with his opportunity. He has 23 catches on 37 targets but only an 8.5 yards per catch average and a dismal 37.8% success rate. His lack of size and lack of explosiveness was exposed last week against New Orleans as he had just one catch for four yards on five targets. His best game may have been the first match-up versus New England where he had three catches for 45 yards. Since then, his success rate and production have cratered.
With Taylor out, Jeremy Ruckert takes on the top tight end role. The Jets recently extended Ruckert with a two-year extension keeping the solid blocker out of free agency after the season. Stone Smartt is more of the receiving tight end than Ruckert, who has never developed beyond a basic safety valve.
New England is without edge rusher Harold Landry, middle linebacker Robert Spillane and defensive tackle Khyiris Tonga on Sunday as all are out injured. Also, Milton Williams was not activated and remains on injured reserve and won’t play this week. Backup cornerback Charles Woods, who has been a solid contributor this season, is questionable for Sunday with a foot injury.
The New England secondary struggled against the Jets running their 3 by 1 formations on the Thursday night game getting wide receivers in match-ups with safeties. I am not sure why the defensive game plan was so stubborn to keep both Carlton Davis and Christian Gonzalez out of the slot on a wide receiver and wasted one or the other in coverage against a tight end or running back and let Metchie and Mitchell match-up in man-coverage against safeties Craig Woodson, Jaylinn Hawkins and Dell Pettus.
Not having interior pass rusher Milton Williams (still on injured reserve with a high ankle sprain) puts additional pressure on Christian Barmore to push the pocket from the interior. Without Landry on the edge, last week’s hero K’Lavon Chaisson needs to step up. Rookie end Joshua Farmer is on injured reserve and the depth up front remains thin.
Young veterans Cory Durden and Eric Gregory are expected to get plenty of playing time with Tonga and Williams out. Anfernee Jennings stepped in on the inside for a few snaps and played well against Baltimore. His play strength and instincts made up for his lack of size in his limited play time inside.
Whether it is fifth-round draft pick Bradyn Swinson or undrafted rookie Elijah Ponder, New England is basically left with no choice other than to get their young and fresh legs on the field this week.
The banged-up Patriots’ defense needs to take advantage of this weak offensive line and pressure Cook and shut down the passing game. With the injuries in the front seven, that becomes a huge question mark.
New England, middle of the pack in blitz rate so far in 2025, may copy the strategy of the Saints last week and bring extra blitzers. The pressure caused the young and inexperienced passer to hold the ball too long and took too many sacks. Brady Cook was 2-for-6, 5 yards, 4 sacks vs the blitz (2.8 passer rating), per NFL NextGenStats.
Run Defense:
The Jets are going to come out intent on testing the New England run defense. New England has struggled stopping the run as they’ve focused on opposing passing attacks and more defensive backs in coverage.
Edge rushers K’Lavon Chaisson and Anfernee Jennings are both solid on the edge against the run, but youngsters Bradyn Swinson and Elijah Ponder have to set the edge with violence if pressed into service. With a dangerous back like Breece Hall in the opposing backfield, it is a priority to stop the Jets.
Linebacker Robert Spillane is already ruled out for the game and is a huge loss against the run-heavy Jets offense. With Spillane out, Christian Ellis, Jahlani Tavai and Marte Mapu must pick up the aggressive but limited athletically, Jack Gibbens in the run defense.
One week after James Cook piled up 107 yards on just 22 carries, Derrick Henry amassed 128 yards on just 18 carries. Like Cook, Henry found the end zone twice. However, the Patriots did exploit Henry’s spotty ball protection and Jaylinn Hawkins forced a key fumble in the first quarter changing the entire momentum of the game.
Expect a continuing big role for Cory Durden as the former undrafted free agent who bounced from the Lions to the Rams to the Giants seems to have found a regular role and now is picking up extra playing time in Milton Williams’ absence. The Patriots added impressive rookie Joshua Farmer to injured reserve and big man Khyiris Tonga is out.
The Patriots will need to elevate from the practice squad yet again, where the choices are Fabien Lovett, Jeremiah Pharms, and Leonard Taylor.
For the Jets, Breece Hall remains the man in the run game. For all their talk of a committee, second-year back Isaiah Davis hasn’t done enough to take on a larger role and steal snaps from Hall. Braelon Allen is on injured reserve but didn’t exactly do much in four games to establish himself in his second season with just 18 carries.
Hall is looking to surpass 1,000 yards rushing for the first time in his career this weekend, as he currently sits at 954 yards with two games remaining. Hall has only topped 100 yards rushing in three games this season, but all three were probably the handful of strong offensive performances all season.
Otherwise, teams have loaded the box and focused on slowing down Hall first and foremost before worrying about the passing game. New Orleans stacked the box and dared the Jets to beat them through the air by putting them in obvious passing downs and then bringing pressure.
Hall had 58 yards on 14 carries in the first match-up as the Patriots focused on bottling him up and kept him to a 4.1 yards per attempt average and a long run of 11 yards. Since that game, Hall has seen teams copy that strategy and his production has cratered. He has had 44, 68, 43, 23, and 54 yards on the ground in his last five games.
Worse still, his yards per attempt were just 2.8, 3.6, 3.1, 1.9, and 3.4 yards per rush in those games. This frustrating stretch to end the season could lead to a messy offseason for the Jets as Hall is clearly vital to the offense but an unrestricted free agent. The Jets can franchise tag him, but after all the losing and this difficult end of the season, Hall could force his way out of New York.
Despite the continuity up front on the offensive line, Fashanu, Simpson, Myers, Tippman and Membou have not had a lot of success with run blocking after a strong start to the season. Since November began, the Jets are averaging just 102 yards per game in their last seven games after averaging almost 144 yards per game in the first eight games in September and October.
For New England, this game will test their beat-up defense and the Jets do not want to have to abandon the run as they did against the Saints last week. Cook had 35 pass attempts, a scramble and took eight sacks, which was not the game plan for New York. Unless the Patriots’ beat-up defense imposes their will, the Jets will look to give Beece Hall and Isaiah Davis more than 19 combined carries.
Other Factors:
The Patriots kickoff coverage unit bounced back against the Ravens after the Bills used returner Ray Davis as a weapon piling up 41.0 yards per return. Last week, Baltimore had just a 20 yard return and a 29 yard kickoff return. New England is tied for eighth in kickoff return defense allowing just 25.08 yards per kick per The Football Database.
That is good, because the Jets have the top-rated kick return unit in the NFL. They are first with 30.06 yards per return. Isaiah Williams has a 30.2 yards per return average while running back Kene Nwangwu has a 99 yard touchdown return and averages 35.0 yards per return. Even Isaiah Davis averages 29.4 yards per kick return.
Punt coverage, which had been a concern going into the game for the Patriots’ special teams, allowed just one return for 11 yards to Baltimore last week after allowing just one return to Khali Shakir versus Buffalo for 12 yards. They have improved in the past few weeks as I started digging into the punt coverage and paying more attention. They are no longer the worst but rank 23rd in punt coverage allowing 12.52 yards per return.
The Jets are good at punt returns as well, ranking seventh in the league at 13.41 yards per return average. Isaiah Williams is the primary punt returner and averages 14.1 yards per return. He has taken two punts back for touchdowns this season.
The Patriots are middle of the pack in kickoff returns, averaging 25.44 yards per return. Antonio Gibson was fantastic in the kick return game and had a 90-yard touchdown return against Miami. However, since he went to injured reserve the Patriots have had TreVeyon Henderson, Kyle Williams, Terrell Jennnings, Rhamondre Stevenson and Efton Chism as the returner with mixed results. It seems like Chism and Williams are the choices to handle the job for the rest of the way.
The number two ranked punt return unit (17.29 yards per return) in the NFL belongs to Marcus Jones as he has handled all the punts. He had an 87-yard return against Carolina for a touchdown and almost broke another as he took it 61 yards. Against the Giants, he broke open the floodgates with a 94-yard touchdown return where the blocking allowed him to run untouched until the Scottish Hammer got a fingernail on him as the last man to beat.
The opportunities have been limited for Jones as teams just don’t want to risk giving him a returnable punt. The Ravens didn’t dare give him an opportunity as both punts were unreturnable.
In the kicking game, New England Patriots rookie sixth-round draft pick kicker Andy Borregales continues to settle in after a rough start to his rookie season. He missed two extra points in week two and missed a field goal in week one. Since week two he has been perfect on extra points and has missed just a pair of field goals. Borregales nailed both extra points and two 40+ yard field goals versus Baltimore last week.
Punter Bryce Baringer still had an inconvenient wobbler every once in a while but overall has been solid. He is no doubt aware of the Jets’ potential game-breaking ability on special teams and will have to be careful with his placement and hang time. Rookie long snapper, Julian Ashby, has been fine but has had some poor snaps on occasion in the punting game.
Old friend Nick Folk handles the kicking for the Jets and the 41-year old has continued to amaze as he leads the NFL with a 96.4% field goal success rate, with just one miss. That miss was over 50 yards, where Folk has hit seven of eight attempts from that distance.
Austin McNamara handles the punting and helps with kickoffs as well. He averages 47.0 yards per attempt, and has had plenty of practice with 64 punts so far in 2025. However, distance isn’t important with Marcus Jones back receiving, hang time and placement matter much more.
The Jets’ special teams coordinator (and former special teams star) Chris Banjo has elevated New York to one of the best overall units, excelling in returns and coverage and great kicking and punting.
The Jets beat Cleveland in week ten despite just 169 yards of offense due to a kick and punt return touchdown in the game and a pair of Nick Folk field goals. The Jets stole that game with special teams, New England cannot allow them to do that again this week.
Game Pick:
The Jets are looking forward to the offseason as third-string quarterback Brady Cook has struggled mightily with one touchdown pass and six interceptions across three games. With two games left in his trial to earn a backup spot next season, Cook wants nothing more than to make a statement against one of the top teams in the AFC.
The Jets aren’t the Bills or the Ravens. That said, the Patriots have made their run to the playoffs by not getting beat against inferior opponents (other than that rough start to the season in September). I fully expect Mike Vrabel to get this depleted team ready to play and not overlook a potentially hungry and dangerous Jets team.
It may be ugly early on (I hope I am wrong), but I think New England will need to shake off another slow and frustrating start before the offense begins to bounce back on the road in the second half.
I think Maye will be enough, but something like a 13-10 or 13-13 first half is something I can see happening just because of so many new bodies on offense and defense for the Patriots. If they limit the Jets from big plays on special teams and take care of the ball, they should pull away with a late cover against the Jets on Sunday afternoon.
PATRIOTS 30 @ JETS 16
Spread: Patriots -13.5: Patriots
Moneyline: Patriots -1050, Jets +675: Patriots
O/U: 42.5: Over
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