The New England Patriots have returned to the playoffs for the first time since 2021 and notched their first victory in the playoffs since the 2018 season with their 13-3 victory over the Los Angeles Rams in Super Bowl 53. In an eerily similar type of game to that last playoff win against a different Los Angeles team, the Patriots overcame early turnovers against the Chargers on Sunday night and their hard-hitting defense led the way to a 16-3 win over the Los Angeles Chargers.
But this week the degree of difficulty increases exponentially. Instead of a very good Chargers defense, the Patriots take on the best defense in the NFL in the Houston Texans. Like the Chargers, however, there are red flags on offense that keep them from being a complete team. Add in that they have to deal with Drake Maye after he seemingly got the first playoff game jitters out of his system in the first half last week, and this game could be an epic chess match.
Last Week:
The Patriots hosted the Chargers on Sunday Night Football on NBC and after a tough start to the game on offense, overcame turnovers to grind out a playoff win.
The Patriots never trailed after a scoreless first quarter and when rookie kicker Andres Borregales broke a 3-3 tie with two seconds remaining before the half he gave the Patriots all the points they would need.
The defense was the star of the game as they harassed quarterback Justin Herbert throughout the game. A hobbled Omarion Hampton and Kimani Vidal combined for 30 yards on the ground on a dozen rushes as the New England defense welcomed back Robert Spillane and Milton Williams. Most of the damage on the ground was done by Justin Herbert running for his life.
The Patriots’ pass defense slowed Herbert and allowed just one pass of 20 yards to Ladd McConkey, forcing Herbert to target his receivers on short passing routes as the defense showed a mix of coverages and disguises pre-snap.
After a slow start, Drake Maye was back to his normal MVP self in the second half spreading the ball around the offense completing passes to nine different receivers. The Patriots suffered with some first half drops and a first quarter interception and a sack/fumble on their first drive of the second half.
The defense picked up the offense as the Chargers eschewed a field goal and was stopped on fourth down from the two yard line getting no points from the interception and taking over at the New England ten yard line.
After the Maye fumble in the second half, the defense stepped up, stopping the Chargers on a third-and-four from midfield and forcing the Chargers to punt (in what may have been a good time for the Charges to get a little aggressive and go for it on fourth-and-four). New England drove downfield and took a 9-3 lead on the Borregales field goal.
The Chargers went punt (down six, on fourth and seven from near midfield), turnover (fumble), and turnover on downs while Maye finally reached the end zone hitting Hunter Henry on a play highlighted by a fantastic blitz pickup by rookie running back TreVeyon Henderson to give Maye time to roll out and complete the pass.
How to Watch/Listen to the Game:
This week’s game is at 3:00 PM on Sunday afternoon as the Texans roll into Gillette Stadium, hopefully leaving the lettermen jackets back in Houston.
For those who don’t remember, in 2012 the Texans started 11-1 and rolled into Foxboro in December wearing custom-made matching letterman jackets to Gillette Stadium only to be crushed 42-14 by the Patriots. The jackets became a punchline. The Texans finished 12-4 as a Wild Card and came back to Foxboro in the Divisional round (without the jackets) and got ass-whipped again 41-28 in a game that was 38-13 in the fourth quarter before they piled on some garbage scores.
The game will air on ABC/ESPN with streaming available via ESPN+ and can be seen in the greater Boston area on WCVB-TV Channel 5 and on ABC6 in the greater Providence, RI/New Bedford, MA area. Joe Buck will handle play-by-play duties with Hall of Fame quarterback and Miami Dolphins general manager and head coach search advisor Troy Aikman as the color analyst. Lisa Salters and Laura Rutledge will provide analysis from the sidelines.
This week's game will be broadcast to a national audience on Westwood One. John Sadak will call the game with former Titans and Patriots cornerback and twin Jason McCourty providing analysis.
98.5 The Sports Hub serves the greater New England area as the flagship station for the Patriots Radio Network. The network partners with 32 stations across New England to broadcast the game (and WHTK-1280AM in Rochester, NY).
Play-by-play broadcaster Bob Socci, between spots hawking Bigelow Tea, will call the action along with former Patriots quarterback and Sports Hub “personality” and mid-day show host Scott Zolak, who will provide his usual unique brand of color analysis.
Key Stats:
New England Patriots
The Patriots offense exploded in 2025 finishing second in points scored (490) and third in yards (6,449) (all statistics from Pro-Football-Reference.com unless otherwise noted). They averaged 6.2 yards per play on offense led by the fourth most passing yards (4,258) and 31 passing touchdowns. The running game added the sixth-most rushing yards (2,191) and 4.4 yards per rush.
The Patriots have been hurt by turnovers at times, and finished the regular season ninth in turnovers with 16. They were 18th with eight lost fumbles and fourth with just eight interceptions.
The New England defense finished fourth in points allowed (320) and eighth in yards allowed (5,019). They allowed just 5.2 yards per play and were ninth in the NFL allowing just 3,290 passing yards. They were 14th allowing 25 passing touchdowns. The run defense allowed the sixth-fewest yards (1,729) and the fourth fewest rushing touchdowns (11) while allowing 4.2 yards per rush.
New England’s defense was 19th in forcing turnovers with just 19. They were 10th in fumbles forced, with nine. They were 18th in the league with ten interceptions.
Houston Texans
The Texans offense finished the 2025 season 13th in points scored (404) and 18th in yards (5,559). They averaged 5.1 yards per play on offense and had 14th most passing yards (3,707) and had 24 passing touchdowns. The running game was 22nd in yards (1,852) and averaged 3.9 yards per rush.
The Texans’ offense was first in the regular season with just three fumbles lost (although they fumbled five times and lost two last week against Pittsburgh in the cold) and ninth with just nine interceptions.
The Houston defense was one of the strongest units in the league finishing second in points allowed (295) and first with the fewest total yards allowed (4,713). They allowed just 4.8 yards per play and were sixth in the league in passing yards allowing just 3,120 yards. They were seventh in the NFL allowing just 20 passing touchdowns. The run defense allowed the fourth fewest yards (1,593) and the eight fewest touchdowns (13) while allowing 4.0 yards per rush.
The Texans’ defense is third in forced turnovers with 29, fourth in the NFL in forced fumbles (10) and third in interceptions with 19.
NE Offense vs HOU Defense:
The Patriots are facing a Texans defense that is littered with All Pros and Pro Bowlers and hard-hitting at every position. They are athletic, they are aggressive, and they are physical.
This is probably the best defense they have faced all season, although the Patriots defeated Cleveland (fourth in yards allowed per game), the Chargers (fifth in yards allowed per game), Buffalo--and scored 31 points in the rematch they lost--(seventh in yards allowed per game), and New Orleans (ninth in yards allowed per game), so this weak strength of schedule argument loses some validity looking at the top defenses they beat already.
Speaking of weak strength of schedule, let’s look at Houston versus good offenses. The Patriots were second to the Rams in points per game. Houston was 4-4 against top-tier offenses. They lost to the Rams in week one, lost to Jacksonville (sixth in points per game) allowing 17 points in week three, and Seattle (third in points per game) allowing 27 points in week seven. They also lost to Denver (14th in points per game) in week nine.
Houston beat Jacksonville (sixth in points per game)in the week ten rematch, but allowed 29 points. Ditto their win against Indianapolis (eighth in points per game) in week 18, as Riley Leonard scored 30 points against a mix of starters and back-ups. They won against San Francisco (tenth in points per game) allowing just 15 points, but note that Mac Jones was at quarterback, not starter Brock Purdy.
The defense beat up on rookie Cam Ward in week four (shutout) and again in week 11. They also beat-up on Cooper Rush quarterbacking the Ravens in week five. For all the talk of the New England offense beating up on bad teams, the fact remains that the Texans’ defenses beat up on some bad offenses.
This is not to take anything away against one of the two or three best defenses in the league (Denver and Seattle are right there with Houston) and they are going to be a very tough match-up for the New England offense.
That said, it’s the playoffs, it’s supposed to be tough!
Pass Offense:
New England’s offense holds up well with advanced statistics, as they were second to the Rams in EPA per play (0.12) tied with Los Angeles with 6.2 yards per play, and third in points per drive with 2.6. In addition, the Patriots led the NFL with an 8.1% explosive play rate (per Sharp Football Analysis).
The Patriots allowed five sacks last week, as rookie left tackle Will Campbell and rookie left guard Jared Wilson were both back from injury but were responsible for four of those sacks. The Patriots have lived and died with their young left side of the offensive line. They have another tough match-up against the Texans, but with the first playoff game yips out of the way, they will be expected to step up on Sunday afternoon.
Bradbury, Onwenu and Moses were competent last week and will need to be again on Sunday. Expect swing tackle Thayer Munford who was out for four snaps last week to get a bit more work in jumbo packages to slow the pass rush. The two tight end set with Hunter Henry (56 snaps) and Austin Hooper (38 snaps)was used a lot last week and should be out to help in protection again
The Chargers were laser focused on Stefon Diggs last week, rolling extra defenders his way. Remember, he played in Houston last year and they are aware of what he can do and will likely get another week seeing extra defenders with Mack Hollins out for the playoffs.
Once they got past their first half jitters, the offense improved. Despite four drops (Henry, Rhamondre Stevenson, Diggs and DeMario Douglas), Maye improved dramatically in the second half going 11-of-14 for 173 passing yards for a 142.0 passer rating.
The Chargers ran more man-coverage than usual early in the game but when Maye began using his legs as a weapon, he forced Los Angeles back into zone to account for the mobility of the quarterback. That could be another way to manipulate the defense this week.
The Texans do not blitz much, 22nd in the NFL with a 21.95 blitz rate, mainly because they are able to generate pressure with their front four and edge rushers Will Anderson (12 sacks) and Danielle Hunter (15 sacks). Even their back-ups, Denico Autry (3.5 sacks) and Derek Barnett (5 sacks) are capable and starter quality. Sheldon Rankins (3 sacks) provides inside pass rush alongside Tommy Togiai.
The advanced metrics show that those numbers are actual. The Texans were second only to the Vikings with a 42.2% pressure rate.
They tied with the Seahawks and Browns with an NFL best 0.12 EPA per play on defense and tied with Seattle for a league-best 1.5 points per drive allowed. The Texans were fourth in yards per play allowed (4.8) and led the league with the lowest down conversion rate allowed (64.8%).
The Texans mix man-coverage and zone and their strong secondary is top five in yards per throw allowed to wide receivers and tight ends. Cornerbacks Derek Stingley, Kamari Lassiter and Jalen Pitre may be the best trio in the NFL right now. Safeties Calen Bullock and former Patriot Myles Bryant flood zones and make plays against tight ends. Hard hitting linebackers Henry To’oTo’o and Azeez Al-Shaair punish receivers across the middle in zone coverage.
If there are holes in the passing defense, they can occasionally give up a big strike as they’re just 17th in Explosive Play Rate Allowed, at 5.6%. This brings to mind the Browns’ defense the Patriots faced in October, as Maye exploited the deep passing game with completions of 21 yards to Mack Hollins, 31 yards to Austin Hooper, 39 yards to Kayshon Boutte and 44 yards to DeMario Douglas in that game. A 9-7 game at halftime ended up a 32-13 New England victory.
Run Offense:
The Patriots are facing a Texans defense that is littered with All Pros and Pro Bowlers and hard-hitting at every position. They are athletic, they are aggressive, and they are physical.
The Texans ranked sixth in the NFL with a 1.0 yards before contact per running back rush. Sheldon Rankins and Tommy Togiai eat up the space in the middle and occupy blockers giving linebackers Henry To’oTo’o and Azeez Al-Shaair space to get to the ball carrier.
New England has had a renaissance in the running game down the stretch, topping 200 yards twice in the last four weeks and piling up 146 yards on the ground last week against the Chargers. Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson have become a reliable 1-2 punch, but the addition of Drake Maye’s running has transformed them in the playoffs.
Last week Maye had 66 of the 146 yards on the ground. Henderson struggled with just 27 yards on nine carries, but Stevenson was very effective and should have had more carries. Rhamondre rumbled for 53 yards on ten carries.
The Patriots could get additional depth if Terrell Jennings is activated. D’Ernest Johnson filled in as the third running back, but added little with 13 carries for 25 yards. Jennings only averaged 3.2 yards per rush but limited action, but also can contribute on kick returns.
The Texans have allowed over 100 yards rushing just six times going 3-3. However, Las Vegas (145 yards rushing), Kansas CIty (126 yards) and Buffalo (143 yards total) were able to break off big plays to account for those yards. Ashton Jeanty had a 60-yard catch and run and added a 51-yard rushing touchdown, Patrick Mahomes accounted for 59 yards on the ground, and James Cook hit a 45-yard run.
That bodes well for New England with home-run hitting rookie running back TreVeyon Henderson and Drake Maye able to pick-up yards on quarterback scrambles.
NE Defense vs HOU Offense:
While the Houston defense is a handful, the offense has had some struggles this season. This week, New England catches a huge break with number one wide receiver Nico Collins (71 receptions for 1,117 yards in just 15 games). Collins suffered a serious concussion last week and is out on Sunday.
New England was fortunate that top cornerback Christian Gonzalez was able to clear concussion protocol and will be active on Sunday. Also, nose tackle Khyiris Tonga is off the injury report and should return. Edge rusher Harold Landry is questionable, but is likely to be active and New England could get additional depth in the secondary with week one starter at cornerback Alex Austin potentially being activated.
The New England defense finished the regular season allowing just 320 points but what really mattered was they faced an offense that put up 40 points against the Jerod Mayo 2024 team and had elite quarterback Justin Herbert at quarterback with Ladd McConkey, Keenan Allen and former first-round draft pick Quentin Johnson.
For all the talk of the Patriots not facing anyone any good on the schedule, the questions were more about the offenses faced, as they played a number of very good defenses. The defense only gave up more than 27 points in one game, the 35-31 loss to the Bills in week 15.
They gave up 20 points to the Raiders in week one and 27 to the Dolphins (with Tyreek Hill) in week two, but neither of those games did they have Gonzalez at cornerback. After that, the defense improved from then on and now they are hosting Houston at Gillette Stadium in the Divisional round in January.
Pass Defense:
The Texans come into Foxboro without Nico Collins, which is a huge loss for quarterback C.J. Stroud. Last week, slot wide receiver, Christian Kirk--who had just 28 receptions for 239 yards in 13 regular season games--lit up the Steelers’ secondary with eight receptions for 144 yards and a touchdown.
With Marcus Jones--one of the best slot cornerbacks in the NFL likely to be all over Kirk, the Texans will need to find another option. Tight end Dalton Shultz was their second-highest volume receiver in the regular season (82 catches for 777 yards), but was invisible in Pittsburgh with just three catches for 12 yards.
Last week after losing Collins, the rest of the receivers failed to do much as rookie Jayden Higgins (three receptions for 39 yards) led the way.
Fellow rookie and former Iowa State receiver and second-round draft pick Jayden Higgins will be stepping into the top target role. Higgins is tall (six-foot-four and 214 lbs) with a huge wingspan and also highly athletic and fast. He can go up and get the ball and can be a matchup nightmare.
Fellow rookie from Iowa State Jaylin Noel was shut out with just one target playing just six snaps. Noel has been losing snaps to Kirk and is pretty much a non-factor.
Xavier Hutchinson is probably the number two outside receiver for Houston. The 2023 sixth-round draft pick out of Iowa State (like Noel and Higgins) is a larger target (six-foot-three and 210 lbs) and hauled in a career-high 35 catches for 428 yards.
The biggest issue for the Texans’ offense, like the Chargers last week, is the offensive line. Entering the playoffs, Houston’s offensive line ranked 30th in pass block win rate (55.4 percent) and 32nd in run block win rate (68.3 percent) per ESPN.com).
ProFootballFocus.com was a little nicer, but still ranked the unit 27th in the NFL in their final rankings. Rookie left tackle Aireontae Ersery struggled and former Patriots draft pick from the Belichick era Jake Andrews (the “other” Andrews) has really had problems, but he is still performing better than 2023 second-round draft pick Juice Scruggs did.
Former first-round draft pick Tytus Howard was finally moved from tackle to guard and has played much better and has been the best overall performer on the offensive line. On the right side, Ed Ingram has been very good in the run game, but still struggles in pass protection. At right tackle, former Patriots tackle Trent Brown is questionable for the game and a game time decision with an ankle injury.
If the massive but limited mobility tackle is out, the Texans will likely turn to 2024 second-round draft pick Blake Fisher. Like Scruggs, Fisher looks like a bust coming out of the 2024 draft. He started the season at left tackle, was replaced by Ersery (who probably needed a developmental redshirt season), came back when Ersery injured his thumb, was still underperforming and was replaced again.
With Landry expected to play and with K’Lavon Chaisson on the opposite side, the Patriots got some pass rush mojo back last week. Of course, the biggest return was Milton Williams in the middle of the defensive line to pair with Christian Barmore. The soft middle of the Chargers’ offensive line was dominated and the inside pressure was too much for them to handle.
This week, the Patriots should again have that advantage inside to pressure quarterback C.J. Stroud. Stroud struggles with the pass rush in his face and will throw the ball away much more these days than his dazzling rookie season where he was making more plays outside the pocket.
The Texans’receivers’ size can be a mismatch, but Carlton Davis and Christian Gonzalez are not undersized and will not back down. The Texans have had success on occasion dialing up deep passes, which puts pressure on rookie Craig Woodson and Jaylinn Hawkins at the safety position to protect the deep part of the field.
Schultz had his most productive season since his 2021 year in Dallas, as he was targeted 106 times although he averaged a career low 9.5 yards per reception. The New England linebackers will have their hands full as they contend with the six-foot-five and 242 lb veteran. Schultz uses his body well to shield smaller defenders and still has the athleticism and wingspan to be a pain no matter who is covering him.
Quarterback C.J. Stroud has to have an outstanding game to produce points. The five fumbles last week was likely a one-game blip and otherwise he was solid with 250 yards passing. He has excellent athleticism but can hold the ball too long behind his weak offensive line and pay the price.
Houston has been waiting to see the version of C.J. Stroud from his offensive rookie of the year season in 2023 when he threw for over 4,000 yards and averaged 274 yards passing per game. However, the lack of blocking up front has made him gun shy and as the sacks and hits have piled up, his production has waned.
Stroud missed much of November with injuries, but still this offense struggles with being efficient and extending drives. They are 23rd in the NFL on third down, converting just 37.2%. In the Red Zone, they consistently bog down with a 46.3% touchdown rate, good for 30th in the NFL.
Run Defense:
New England gets Khyiris Tonga back this week, and he has certainly been missed. The big man in the middle of the defense has been a huge part of the run defense and his strength and size being lost in the middle of the defense was felt as the run defense suffered with him out injured.
Along with Tonga, the Patriots got Milton Williams back to team with Christian Barmore to take the Chargers’ running backs out of the game. Yes, Omarion Hampton was less than 100% but Kimani Vidal never got going and Justin Herbert tucking and running accounted for 57 of the 87 rushing yards allowed.
New England would love to make the Texans one-dimensional and tee off with different blitz looks, but they first have to do the dirty work to stop the run game. Robert Spillane was back at middle linebacker and he went wire-to-wire playing all 60 snaps and being a huge part of the running game being a non-factor. Christian Ellis got a lot of play spying Herbert and Jahlani Tavai (seven snaps) and Jack Gibbens (14 snaps) were back in the back up role.
On the defensive line, Cory Durden was still rotated in, playing 29 snaps, and big Leonard Taylor got 22 snaps and Eric Gregory got ten snaps without Tonga last week. The players who had been playing excessive snaps slid back into part time roles and the defense was better as the depth pieces proved to have little drop off.
The Houston offensive line isn’t much better run blocking than they are pass blocking, with Ed Ingram the exception. Last week against the Steelers, they had one of their best performances of the season as they topped 160 yards rushing for just the second time all season.
Pittsburgh’s defense got by on reputation in 2025, as their run defense was lit up numerous times throughout the season. The Wild Card round was another example, but no one should take anything away from Houston being effective on the ground and able to have a truly balanced rushing attack. That was a huge part of the reason they won that game.
Woody Marks had a career game as the fourth-round draft pick out of USC after four years at Mississippi State slashed through the Steelers’ defense for his first 100 yard game in the NFL in his first playoff game. Heck, it was the first time Marks topped 75 yards in a game. He averaged just 3.6 yards per rush in the regular season finishing with 703 yards on 196 carries.
Marks is smaller and most draft analysts had him pegged as a third down back as he uses quickness more than breakaway speed or running with power. He needs space and is dangerous once he gets to the second level. He is an excellent receiver but Houston rarely uses him in the passing game.
When Houston needs a power back, veteran Nick Chubb is the man as the veteran piled up 506 yards on 122 carries (4.1 yards per rush). Injuries have robbed Chubb of the explosiveness of his fabulous first five seasons in Cleveland, but he is still smart and powerful and can find yards in short-yardage spots.
For all the talk of his mobility, Stroud has always moved in the pocket to get space to throw and while an effective scrambler, the injury risk to the long and lanky quarterback has kept him from tucking and running. Since returning at the end of November, he had 14 rushes for 20 yards.
If New England can slow the Houston rushing game, it gives their defense a huge advantage forcing the Texans to be one-dimensional without Nico Collins playing to impact the passing game.
Other Factors:
The Patriots got a solid game out of rookie kicker Andres Borregales in his first postseason performance as he handled the cold and wind of New England in January well. He connected on all three field goals and his only extra point attempt.
Punter Bryce Baringer had a mixed bag punting. His first punt went for 55 yards but just 35 yards net as he booted it into the end zone. His second punt was much better pinning the Chargers inside the ten yard line. His final punt was also good as he forced the Chargers to start at their own 12 yard line.
The New England coverage units were solid in the wild card game holding the Chargers in check and not allowing any big plays. Marcus Jones attempted to return a pair of punts he should have fair caught, but no harm done but no net gain either. Efton Chism had two uninspiring kickoff returns as he showed little juice again in the kick return game.
The Houston offense has been the kicking game and Ka’imi Fairbairn for much of the season. Fairbairn has had a career year connecting on 44 of 48 field goals in just 15 games and making all 28 extra points--in the regular season as he missed his first PAT last week, likely due to his being shocking he got to kick four in one game.
Fairbairn has been a dome kicker in Houston his entire career, so the effect of the cold and the wind and the slush and the snow forecast for Sunday could be a factor. He missed a 55-yard kick and had a 35-yard kick blocked in Kansas City last year and also missed a key 47-yard field goal that could have given Houston the lead before halftime in Baltimore in the playoffs the year prior.
Tommy Townsend is a veteran punter who punted four years in Kansas City and should be unaffected by the weather and playoff atmosphere. He has had only one punt blocked over six seasons. He has a strong and accurate leg and will need to keep his focus on hang-time with a game-breaker like Marcus Jones back to return punts.
For the Texans’s coverage units, they have allowed a kick and a punt return touchdown already this season. The Football Database has Houston ranked 22nd in kick return coverage allowing 26.66 yards per return and 14th in punt return coverage allowing 9.88 yards per return.
Rookie Jaylin Noel handles punt returns (10.8 yards per return average) and teams with backup cornerback Termon Smith on kickoffs. The Texans return teams are 15th in punt returns and 14th in kick returns.
Game Pick:
The Patriots, at 14-3 and winners of the AFC East and second seed in the AFC, are only 3.5 or 3 point favorites at home depending on the sports book. The Texans are an excellent defense, but suspect on offense. The offense has benefitted from the defense providing points and short fields.
The defense is no joke for Houston, but the New England defense is healthy and shut down one of the top quarterbacks in the league. WIth inclement weather expected for Sunday afternoon, and for a dome team like Houston, that weather can be a huge disadvantage. Their kicking game struggled in the weather in January already the past two seasons.
With two excellent defenses and the Texans short-handed on offense without Nico Collins, while their defense can keep them in the game, eventually New England’s offense is going to make a few big plays and that should be just enough to get a hard-fought victory.
#5 seed TEXANS 13 @ #2 seed PATRIOTS 17
Spread: Patriots -3: Patriots
Moneyline: Patriots -170, Texans +142: Patriots
O/U: 40.5: Under
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