The New England Patriots’ most impressive offensive performance since Mac Jones’ rookie season lifted the Patriots to an easy 42-10 win over the New York Jets. Drake Maye had a historic day, completing 19 of 21 passes (one a straight-up drop by Kyle Williams that hit him between the one and the eight on his jersey) for 256 yards and five touchdowns. Of course, as the Jets had gone all season without an interceptions, Maye did not allow them to have their first of the season.
For those who don’t remember, rookie Mac Jones put up a pair of 50 burgers his rookie season, including 54 points against the Jets in week seven of the 2021 season, another 45 on the Browns in week ten and then 50 on the Jaguars in week 17 (which was right before everything fell apart).
The Patriots clinched the AFC East with that win last week in the wilds of East Rutherford, NJ after the Bills fell to the Eagles 13-12 later that afternoon as Josh Allen missed a wide open Khalil Shakir in the back of the end zone on a two-point conversion after rallying late to cut the Eagles’ lead to a point. It was the right call by Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott to go for two, the right play call by offensive coordinator Joe Brady, but the hobbled Allen just did not throw a catchable pass.
With the division in hand, the Patriots turn their eyes to the top seed in the AFC and a much-needed bye week. Like clinching the AFC East, they need help again to get to that milestone as they need the Chargers to upset the Broncos to get the number one seed. The Chargers are resting Justin Herbert for the playoffs, so the Football Gods need to smile on Foxboro once again as they did in the past for this to pass.
The Patriots will finish this already incredible and unprecedented 2025 NFL regular season Sunday in Foxboro against their AFC East rivals the Miami Dolphins--who are currently 7-9 and already eliminated from the postseason and have benched their franchise quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa, in favor of seventh-round draft pick former Longhorns’ quarterback Quinn Ewers.
Tagovailoa, drafted by Miami one spot ahead of Justin Herbert, is in the first year of a four year, $212 million contract and the Dolphins could be paying him almost $100 million over the next two years to not play quarterback in Miami. Through two games, Ewers is statistically almost identical to Tagovailoa’s 14 game sample, which is pretty damning of the so-called franchise quarterback.
The loss to Buffalo in week 15 has turned out to be the wake-up call this Patriots team desperately needed. They had a much-needed come-from-behind win against Baltimore and then thoroughly dominated an inferior team on the road last week.
While the ten-game winning streak was a great story, but the Patriots were lucky to escape with wins multiple times against non-playoff teams during that streak as games against New Orleans, Atlanta, and Cincinnati were all games that they really should have lost considering how they played (throw the Tampa Bay game in that mix as well).
At 13-3, they are behind the 13-3 Denver Broncos for the top seed in the AFC due to tiebreakers, but they have a chance to win out and still have a shot at the first overall seed in the AFC and a bye with some help in week 18 by the Chargers who play Denver.
The Broncos lost last week at home against Jacksonville and face a tough test down the stretch. The Chargers are just a game back and they play each other in week 18. The Chargers, if they win and have the same record as Denver, they would win the West via the head-to-head tiebreaker having already beat Denver early in the season. If New England wins out, they get the top seed and the bye in that situation.
First and foremost for New England, they need to take care of business in New Jersey. The Jets are an obstacle in the road to the playoffs for the Patriots and they need to be all business on Sunday afternoon. The craziest thing is that the Patriots lose the tie-breaker to Denver due to their loss in week one to the Las Vegas Raiders. Who would have thought back on September 7th that losing to Geno Smith and Pete Carroll could cost the Patriots a bye week in the playoffs.
Last Week:
The Patriots went into East Rutherford, NJ one week after playing in a physical game in Baltimore and had their easiest win of the season.
Even though the Patriots were without starting left guard Jared Wilson, starting wide receiver Kayshon Boutte, starting defensive tackle Khyiris Tonga, starting edge rusher Harold Landry, starting inside linebacker Robert Spillane and placed rookie defensive lineman Joshua Farmer and wide receiver Mack Hollins on injured reserve before the game.
Also, starting defensive tackle Milton Williams, despite being designated to return from injured reserve, did not suit up on Sunday against the Jets. Despite missing all these starters (and Vederian Lowe filling in at left tackle for Will Campbell) the Patriots came out with their most complete game of the season.
The offense started the game with six consecutive drives for touchdowns, ranging from six to 11 plays driving between 47 and 91 yards down the field. It wasn’t until it was a 42-3 game that the Jets made a stop and by then Joshua Dobbs was at quarterback.
The defense came out strong and forced a three-and-out, intercepted rookie quarterback Brady Cook, allowed a nine play and 49 yard drive before a rare Red Zone stop forced a field goal, and then finished the first half with a pair of three-and-outs.
The Jets finally scored in the fourth quarter when Breece Hall had a beautiful 59-yard touchdown run versus the New England backups, but the Jets sandwiched that touchdown with four turnovers on downs.
A huge concern in the game was the Jets’ special teams units, as their returners have multiple kick return touchdowns. New England’s special teams unit completed the trifecta of solid play holding kick returner Kene Nwangwu to a manageable 28.5 yards per return and three touchbacks. Also, both of punter Bryce Baringer’s fourth quarter punts resulted in fair catches.
How to Watch/Listen to the Game:
This week’s game is at 4:25 so that the Patriots and Broncos will play at the same time. This week the game will be broadcast again by FOX and can be seen locally on WFXT-TV Channel 25 in the greater Boston area and WNAC-TV Channel 64 in the greater Providence area. Unless last week, the Patriots get the “B” team with the more than competent Joe Davis set to handle play-by-play duties with the excellent Greg Olsen as the color analyst. Pam Oliver will work from the sidelines.
Olsen was replaced by Fox on their ”A” team in favor of Tom Brady last season, but make no mistake about it, he is arguably the best or second best analyst on television (I am a Kirk Herbstreit guy, but acknowledge that is my personal preference).
Sunday's game will be broadcast to a national audience on ESPN Radio. Steve Levy will call the game with Harry Douglas providing analysis. Dan Graziano will work the sidelines.
Yes, that is the former SportsCenter anchor and NHL play-by-play commentator, Steve Levy, calling the game. Levy has been the voice for ESPN Monday Night Football in the past and has also called college football and XFL games for ESPN/ABC. And, yes, that is former Titans and Falcons wide receiver Harry Douglas.
As always, Sunday’s game will be broadcast locally on the radio by Bob Socci on calling the play-by-play action along with former Patriots quarterback and Sports Hub “personality” Scott “Zo” Zolak providing bewildering noises, grunts and assorted yelps that somehow passes for game analysis around here.
Key Stats:
The Patriots finished the regular season 8-0 on the road but are only 5-3 at Gillette Stadium so far in 2025. It feels like that was a completely different Patriots team that beat a completely different Dolphins team 33-27 earlier in the season in week two in Miami.
In that game, rookie kicker Andres Borregales missed two first quarter extra points and when Tagovailoa found Jaylen Waddle for an 18-yard touchdown, it became only a 12-7 lead. The Patriots had some bad two-minute defense as well before halftime, allowing Miami to march down the field in less than two minutes to make it a 15-14 game at halftime.
Miami took the lead after halftime on a pair of Riley Patterson field goals before Drake Maye led them to the lead scrambling away from Matt Judon and into the end zone after a 55-yard Rhamondre Stevenson catch-and-run set the Patriots up in the red zone.
The Dolphins retook the lead on a 74-yard punt return touchdown by Malik Washington, but the Patriots took it right back on the ensuing kickoff. Antonio Gibson turned around the game with a 90 yard touchdown return to put New England ahead to stay 30-27.
Borregales nailed a 53-yard field goal to make it 33-27 with 1:47 to play. Although Tagovailoa and the Dolphins had a chance, the offense imploded once they got into New England territory, as a false start, delay of game and then a pair of sacks by newcomers Robert Spillane and Milton Williams sealed the win.
On defense last week, the Patriots allowed more than 100 yards rushing for the seventh straight week after only two teams were able to rush for 100 or more yards during the first nine weeks of the season. The 164 yards rushing by the Jets after New England allowed 171 yards rushing to Baltimore and 168 yards rushing to the Bills makes for some ugly stats (all stats from Pro-Football-Reference.com, unless otherwise noted).
However, the Jets piled up 92 yards on the ground in the fourth quarter last Sunday when the Patriots already led 42-3. While the yards allowed rushing against Buffalo and Baltimore are concerning, no one is concerned about the back-ups allowing rushing yards to New York in a blowout.
The Patriots enter week 18 of the NFL season ranking fifth in points allowed and seventh in yards allowed, although the defense does not really feel like it is truly that effective. Going on advanced stats, the defense is tenth in yards per play allowed at 5.3 yards and tenth in points per drive allowed at 1.9 points. They are also about the same based on defensive EPA per play (expected points allowed per play) which measures overall efficiency of the defense by how much it reduces the opponent’s chance of scoring has the Patriots 11th in the NFL at 0.04, which feels a little more accurate (per Sharp Football Analysis).
The Patriots are tenth in the league in passing yards allowed as they’ve continued to pump up those stats against bad quarterbacks. As teams have had success running the ball, the pass defense has tightened up as the Patriots have not allowed a team to accumulate 200 or more total passing yards since week ten against Baker Mayfield and the Bucs.
The Patriots are 14th in net yards allowed per passing attempt and have allowed 24 passing touchdowns (14th in the NFL). Against the run, the Patriots are 16th now in yards per attempt allowed (4.3 yards per rush) and still only eighth in total rushing yards allowed. They’re also fourth in the NFL allowing just 11 rushing touchdowns this season.
The offense is averaging 28.3 points per game moving up to fifth in the league in points scored after dismantling the Jets last week, and New England is up to fourth (they were sixth as of last week) in the NFL in total yards as they approach 6,000 total yards of offense for the season..
New England is third overall in total passing yards and 13th in the league in total rushing yards. TreVeyon Henderson leads the team with 858 yards rushing with Rhamondre Stevenson behind him with 472 yards on the ground. In the passing game, Stefon Diggs has 82 receptions for 970 yards and is in the range of 1,000 yards receiving. Hunter Henry leads the team with seven receiving touchdowns.
Coming off a game with 90% completion percentage, over 250 yards passing and five passing touchdowns, Maye remains the completion percentage leader as he has produced a 71.7% completion rate and joined Drew Bledsoe and Tom Brady as the only New England quarterbacks to top 4,000 yards passing in a season (4,203 yards passing and counting currently). He has 30 touchdowns passing to just eight interceptions.
Maye remains first in the league in Yards per Attempt with a 8.9 yards average, first in Adjusted Yards gained per pass attempt (factoring touchdown passes and interceptions into the equation) at 9.37 and also first in quarterback rating at 112.9, and he is second to Brock Purdy (77.6) in QBR at 76.5
NE Offense vs MIA Defense:
The Patriots are facing a Miami Dolphins team this season that has massively underachieved on both offense and defense. After a strong second half of the season on defense last year under former Baltimore Ravens and Houston Texans player and coach Anthony Weaver in his first year as defensive coordinator, after adding Kenneth Grant in the first round of the draft to last year’s first round pick Chop Robinson, much was expected of the Dolphins defense.
Miami was ravaged by injuries in the secondary as expected starters Artie Burns and Kader Kohou landed on injured reserve. Jalen Ramsey was traded for safety Minkah Fitzpatrick. Expected starter Storm Duck was injured in week one and then returned in week eight and was lost for the season with a knee injury.
Miami signed former Patriots and Raiders cornerback Jack Jones and former Bills and Packers cornerback Rasul Douglas off the scrap heap and they’ve served as serviceable starters all season. Rookie Jason Marshall and Fitzpatrick have stepped up in the slot and as depth and amazingly, the problem hasn’t been the depleted secondary.
The Dolphins’ defense ranks 21st out of 32 teams in points allowed (24.1 points per game) and total yards allowed, but they’re only 18th in passing yards allowed. The Dolphins have struggled against the run, 24th in the league in rushing yards allowed as they’ve allowed over 2,000 yards on the ground along with a 4.6 yards per attempt average.
The Dolphins are 5-0 when they allow less than 100 yards rushing and 1-9 when they allow over 100 yards on the ground. They also have stayed in games due to creating turnovers, as they rank 11th in the league having created 20 turnovers. The Dolphins are 7-1 when they win the turnover battle but 0-8 when they lose the turnover battle.
The Dolphins’ defense has actually been okay on third down, 13th in the NFL with a 39.4% conversion rate, although they’ve struggled on fourth down. They are 29th on fourth downs with opponents converting 74.1% of their attempts. In the Red Zone, the Dolphins are 17th in touchdown rate, allowing opponents to reach the end zone on 33 of 57 trips inside the 20 yard line (57.9%).
Pass Offense:
The Dolphins are middle of the pack as far as playing man and zone coverage. They struggle based on defensive EPA per play and are 25th in the NFL in yards per play allowed per Sharp Football Analysis. The advanced stats confirm that this is not a great defense going up against the Patriots this week.
Miami has been fortunate that Rasul Douglas has bounced back in 2025. He has 12 passes defended and a pair of interceptions and ProFootballFocus.com loves him, ranking him as the 13th best cornerback in the league. The former Eagles, Panthers, Packers and Bills cornerback was great in 2023 in Buffalo but was a liability in 2024 and was unsigned until Miami got desperate.
Jack Jones remains the gambler he was that drove Bill Belichick crazy and--along with his off-field issues--drove him out of Foxboro. After burning his bridges in Las Vegas, Jones has been serviceable but his penchant for biting on double moves has seen him give up a number of big plays in the passing game.
Minkah Fitzpatrick moves between safety and slot cornerback, with former Jets safety Ashtyn Davis and former Detroit Lions 3rd round draft pick Ifeatu Melifonwu playing at safety. Rookie cornerback Jason Marshall had his first NFL interception last week and a pair of passes defended in probably his best game of the season last week.
What the Dolphins do to try and stop Maye will be interesting. In week 15 against the Steelers, Miami challenged the limited passing game of Pittsburgh with a number of two-high-safety coverages in an attempt to force Aaron Rodgers to dink and dunk his way down field. Unfortunately, for Miami, he did just that leading them to a 28-15 win.
The next week they switched things up a bit more against the Bengals, but it didn’t matter much. The Bengals exploited the Dolphins linebackers in coverage against running backs and used their tight ends to stretch the field vertically and find seams. This is a game plan New England can copy with Tre’Veyon Henderson, Rhamondre Stevenson, Austin Hooper and Hunter Henry (who returned to practice on Thursday).
The Dolphins’ pass rush was supposed to be a strength, but Chop Robinson--who looked so good at times last year has struggled mightily and has just four sacks. Matt Judon was let go after little production and Jaelan Phillips was traded to the Eagles at the trade deadline for a third round draft pick.
Veteran Bradley Chubb leads the team with 8.5 sacks but despite his renegotiated contract to get some guarantees and provide the team cap relief this year, his contract carries a $31 million cap hit next year and in 2027 and he could be playing his last game for Miami on Sunday.
The problem is there is not much depth behind Chubb. Cameron Good and Quinton Bell haven’t made an impact and with Robinson regressing, they may need to keep Chubb around in 2026 despite his production not meeting the cost of his contract.
In the middle, the pass rush used to be from Zach Sieler, one of the better interior penetrators. However, in 2025 that production hasn’t been there for much of the season from the 31-year old former Raven. After back-to-back ten sack seasons, Sieler has just 5.5 sacks (with 2.5 of those coming against the lowly Jets).
Rookies Kenneth Grant, Jordan Phillips and Zeek Biggers have taken on a larger role with Benito Jones struggling much of the year and now on injured reserve. After a tough start, the trio of rookies have been playing well in the past month and throwing their weight around up front and showing potential for the future.
Miami’s interior linebackers are both solid blitzers, as Tyrel Dodson and Jordyn Brooks may be their most complete positional group on the roster. Dodson has five sacks and Brooks has 3.5. Both fit in well with Anthony Weaver’s defensive philosophy of getting into the backfield quickly and they both contribute to the pass rush.
In addition, both have responsibilities in the pass defense, filling the middle of the field in the zone defense. Brooks has struggled at times in coverage, and has allowed 65 receptions on 85 targets for 665 yards and a 110.2 passer rating. Dodson has struggled as well, allowing 49 receptions on 60 targets for 479 yards and a 109.7 passer rating.
Brooks (hamstring injury) missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday as did Minkah Fitzpatrick (calf injury). These are two leaders on defense and their inability to play on Sunday would be a huge blow to the Miami defense.
For New England, they couldn’t ask for a more productive passing game than the past two weeks after the loss to Buffalo. Maye bounced back from a rare poor performance against the Bills in which he threw for just 155 yards and completed only 60.9% of his passes (“poor” being relative, since he rushed for a pair of touchdowns and built a 21-0 lead in the game) with a vengeance.
Maye lit up the Ravens secondary throwing for 380 yards and completing 70.5% of his passes and a pair of touchdowns and followed that up last week completing 90.5% of his passes for 256 yards and five touchdowns against the Jets before taking a break midway through the third quarter.
What made the performance against the Jets so special was that Maye did it with just Stefon Diggs (six catches for 101 yards) with Mack Hollins placed on injured reserve and Kayshon Boutte out. Tight ends Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper stepped up, combining for five catches for 60 yards and a pair of touchdowns.
Rookies Kyle Williams and Efton Chism stepped up as DeMario Douglas was slowed by a hamstring injury and played just nine snaps on offense with one reception. Williams played 85% of the snaps and contributed three receptions. Chism had his first reception and first touchdown while playing 62% of the snaps.
Douglas was a full participant in practice and should be on track to play versus Miami. Boutte was limited in practice this week as he continues working through concussion protocol but could be out there on Sunday.
Jared Wilson remained out of practice due to a concussion at left guard and that likely means he will not be cleared for Sunday. That puts Ben Brown back into the starting lineup. Brown has been competent and capable stepping in at guard or center. Rookie left tackle Will Campbell returned to practice and could be activated for Sunday, although kudos to Vederian Lowe who was fantastic filling in.
Morgan Moses and Thayer Munford are healthy again with Moses getting some regular veteran rest and Munford joining defensive tackle Christian Barmore and edge rusher K’Lavon Chaisson suffering from illness, usually the flu working its way through the locker room.
What was most concerning was two new names on the injury report this week. Both tight end Hunter Henry (knee) and fullback Jack Westover (ankle) did not participate on Wednesday and while Henry returned to practice in a limited fashion on Thursday, Westover was out and both of their statuses will need to be monitored as far as their availability for Sunday’s matchup versus the Dolphins.
Run Offense:
Rookie running back TreVeyon Henderson is in position to make a push for 1,000 yards rushing as a rookie. The second-round draft pick has 858 yards and seven touchdowns on the ground in 2025 as he has taken advantage of injuries to Antonio Gibson (placed on injured reserve after week five) and Rhamondre Stevenson (missed three games due to various injuries). He cleared concussion protocol before the Jets game and was the leading rusher, leading the way with 82 yards on the ground.
Fortunately, Rhamondre Stevenson returned to health after his own injury struggles this month and after he stepped up with a key 23-yard catch and the game-winning 21-yard touchdown run late in the fourth quarter to complete the comeback win in Baltimore, he continued his impact play versus the Jets adding a pair of touchdowns early in the game pounding in from a yard out in the first quarter and adding a 22-yard touchdown grab while totalling 47 yards rushing on just eight carries to go along with five receptions for 55 yards.
Back-up running back D’Ernest Johnson got on the field in garbage time but had just five yards on four rushes. More importantly, with the Patriots thin at wide receiver he stepped up as the kick returner and had three returns for 77 yards.
The Dolphins’ run defense has had some issues in 2025, but last week versus the Bucs they had their fifth game allowing less than 100 yards in their last nine games. In those five games versus the Falcons (45 yards), Bills (87 yards), Saints (81 yards), Jets (65 yards) and Bucs (53 yards), they’re 5-0 when they hold teams under 100 yards rushing and 0-4 in those other games versus the Ravens, Commanders, Steelers and Bengals.
Inside linebacker duo Jordyn Brooks and Tyrel Dodson are everywhere in the run game. They are very aggressive in their pursuit and former Seahawks’ first-round pick Brooks leads the NFL with 174 combined tackles and 95 solo tackles. Dodson, who was a fixture in Buffalo before landing in Seattle has also been active with 121 combined tackles and 72 solo.
Brooks is on the injury report with a hamstring injury and missed practice during the week. His status would be a big loss as the drop-off to back-up and former Tampa Bay Buccaneer K.J. Britt is significant. They also have Willie Gay in reserve, but while the well-travelled veteran has started in the past in Kansas City, he has mainly played on special teams in Miami this season.
On the defensive line, rookie Kenneth Grant has been the key to the run defense. When the massive Michigan alumni in the middle of the defense is able to penetrate and disrupt the running game in the backfield, it makes things easy for Brooks and Dodson to clean-up and limit the opposing running games. Listed at 335 lbs. but more likely topping out at 350 lbs., the rookie is the key to whether Miami can get New England into third-and-long situations and off the field.
Ben Brown is likely to start at left guard with Wilson still in concussion protocol after missing last week’s game and likely to miss this game on Sunday. Brown, Mike Onwenu and Garrett Bradbury will have their hands full with Grant, Seiler, Zeek Biggers and Jordan Phillips.
On the edge, the veteran Bradley Chubb is a solid edge setter, but Chop Robinson has had issues being overaggressive and letting ball carriers out wide. Robinson is in concussion protocol after leaving the Buccaneers game early. Behind Robinson is Quinton Bell, who has bounced around the NFL practice squads since being a seventh-round pick in 2020 before finding a home in Miami in 2023 where he has bounced around from practice squad to roster.
Cameron Goode has also had an increased role in the Miami defense at the edge. The 2022 seventh-round draft pick has stuck in Miami as a core special teams player. He has only played 84 snaps on defense, but is a core-four contributor on special-teams.
The Dolphins’ safeties contribute in the run game significantly. While Minkah Fitzpatrick is often playing slot cornerback, he is a willing contributor in the run defense. The oddity for Miami is the playing time given to former Jet Ashtyn Davis. Davis is not very good, misses a ton of tackles, and takes playing time from rookie Dante Trader.
Ifeatu Melifonwu is more of the center fielder on the defense filling in at deep safety when Fitzpatrick is at cornerback. Ideally, Miami would have Fitzpatrick at safety and Melifonwu as a depth option. However, the more Ashtyn Davis and Melifonwu on the field, the better for the New England running game.
MIA Offense vs NE Defense
The Dolphins enter week 18 with franchise quarterback Tua Tagovailoa on the bench and seventh-round draft pick and former Longhorn Quinn Ewers leading the offense. While Ewers’ numbers haven’t been significantly different then Tagovailoa’s stat lines, he did not turn the ball over Sunday against Tampa Bay.
Ewers is on an audition to see if he can be a cheap bridge option to the next franchise quarterback in Miami. The failure of Taovailoa cost long-time general manager Chris Grier his job in Miami, but strangely enough head coach Mike McDonald has kept his job in Miami despite taking over a team that was supposed to be ready to compete in the AFC East.
McDonald took over a team that had won eight of their final nine games under Brian Flores in 2021 and was in position to compete for the AFC East title immediately. They added Tyreek Hill in 2022 but sitting in first place at 8-3 after week 12, McDaniel’s team lost five in a row before being a bad Jets team to sneak into the playoffs and lose to Buffalo.
“Tua was hurt” was the excuse, but in 2023 another late season collapse saw defensive coordinator Vic Fangio take the fall when the offense--with a healthy Tua--couldn’t top 20 points in three straight losses to close out the season. Last year, they used the “Tua Injured” excuse again despite a defense that was excellent in the second half of the season.
Somehow, this “offensive genius” in Miami has maintained his job by shifting the blame to Tagovailoa and trotting out the injury excuses (this time it is Tyreek Hill, although they were 1-3 when he got hurt). Jaylen Waddle has been inconsistent without Hill on the opposite side of the field to hold the secondary’s attention.
Mike McDaniel is an excellent run game coordinator for an offense. The run game in Miami remains the strength of the team. However, he has repeatedly failed in the pass game, and in all other areas of team building and culture in Miami. Patriots fans should be rooting for McDaniel to stay and keep Miami mediocre so they remain no threat at all to winning the AFC East.
In 2025 the Dolphins’ offense is 22nd in points and 25th in yards. In the passing game they are 25th in passing yards, 18th in net yards per attempt and only three teams in the league have thrown more interceptions.
The running game is tenth in yards and fourth in yards per attempt. Much of that is due to the speedy and shifty running back De’Von Achane, a home run hitter who can turn the smallest opening into an explosive play.
The Dolphins use a ton of motion and rank second only to the Falcons in motion rate at 67.4%. While using so much motion, the Dolphins also run a ton of play-action as they are sixth in the league at 17.4% (per Sharp Football Analysis).
For all the motion, play-action and trickery, it hasn’t helped much this year in Miami as defenses aren’t fooled by the trickeration. The Dolphins have struggled mightily on third and fourth downs, ranking 27th in third-down conversion rate at just 34.6% and 22nd in fourth down conversion rate at just 11 of 22 for 50%.
For New England, everything went right on defense as they made stops and created a turnover against the Jets before New York broke through for a touchdown while behind 42-3 in the fourth quarter after New England emptied the bench.
The Patriots used the game to bump up their defensive statistics as they now rank fifth in points allowed (19.4 points per game) and seventh in yards allowed. Yes, they will face better offenses in the playoffs, but other than the second Buffalo game a few weeks ago, the 27 points scored by Miami in week two (seven from a punt return) had been the high point of the season in points allowed.
On defense, the Red Zone struggles improved as the Jets managed three points on two trips. New England still ranks 32nd and opponents have 26 touchdowns on 37 trips for a 70.3% conversion rate. Their defense is 12th in third down conversion rate, allowing just 38.5% conversion and second in the NFL on fourth downs allowing just 34.5% conversion rate.
Pass Defense:
The Dolphins’ problems in the passing game are not the blame of the offensive line. They rank second best in pressure rate allowed at 30.4% and sixth in no blitz pressure rate allowed at just 30.6% (per Sharp Football Analysis). Some of that is due to Tagovailoa having been so rushed to get the ball out quickly to avoid any kind of contact behind the line of scrimmage.
Miami is 23rd in offensive EPA at -0.02 and 23rd in points per drive at 2.0. The contradiction is in their explosiveness on offense. They rank 13th in yards per play at 5.5 (the Patriots’ offense is second to the Rams at 6.1, if you’re wondering) and they are ninth in explosive play rate at 6.4% (and, yes, the Patriots’ offense is first in the NFL at 7.9%).
Part of the explanation is the explosiveness of running back De’Von Achane with his NFL leading 5.7 yards per rushing attempt and multiple big plays, including his role in the passing game as the second leading receiver with 488 yards through the air and four receiving touchdowns.
Add in speedster Jaylen Waddle, and the explosiveness is evident. Unfortunately for Miami, without Tyreek Hill, they have struggled to find a second receiving target. Hill played four games all year and is sixth in receiving yards for Miami 12 weeks later. Miami has received minimal production from Cedrick Wilson, Malik Washington, Nick Westbrook-Ihene and Tahj Washington.
Recent practice squad elevation Theo Wease has been the most productive receiver for Ewers. He had a 63-yard receiving touchdown last week versus Tampa Bay and had two 18-yard receptions the prior week against Cincinnati. The undrafted free agent from Missouri has decent size at six-foot-three and experience having played six seasons of college ball (four at Oklahoma and two in Missouri), but lacks explosiveness. Not to take anything away from him, but it was a coverage bust by Tampa leaving him wide open and unaccounted for as he just ran straight downfield on third and long on that touchdown last week.
At tight end, veteran Darren Waller un-retired and was supposed to ride to the rescue. Despite scoring four touchdowns in his first three games, his production dropped off as nagging injuries and attention in the Red Zone slowed him down. Waller was injured last week and his groin injury held him out of practice on Wednesday and Thursday, throwing his availability for Sunday into doubt.
If Waller cannot go, the Dolphins have former Broncos and Giants tight end Greg Dulcich waiting in the wings. Dulcich is a decent receiver and has five games with 40+ yards for the Dolphins already in 2025. Last week he caught his first touchdown since 2022.
The Dolphins have been great up front, spearheaded by center Aaron Brewer who has been arguably the best run blocking center in the NFL. The former Titan who is well known to Patriots’ head coach Mike Vrabel who put him on the 53-man roster as an undrafted free agent in 2020 and elevated him to a starter in 2022.
After letting Vrabel go, the Titans let Brewer walk where he landed in Miami as a free agent. Vrabel was effusive in his praise of Brewer in his time in Tennessee and famously said about him, “he’s tougher than a $2 steak.” Like Garrett Bradbury, he is a smaller interior lineman, but understands leverage and uses his explosiveness to get to the second level and spring big runs for Achane.
Although limited with a neck injury, Brewer is expected to play on Sunday. He is flanked by guards Jonah Savaiinaea on the left side and former Patriot Cole Strange on the right side. A rookie, Savaiinaea is a converted tackle who has improved throughout the season. Strange is never going to match his expectations and injuries have limited him, and he is the weak link on the line.
The tackles are where Miami are strong as former Houston Cougar and last year’s 2nd round draft pick Patrick Paul is very good in pass protection. On the opposite side, right tackle Austin Jackson is one of the best right tackles in the game. They lack quality depth on the offensive line, but that is just about every team in the NFL these days.
New England is likely going to be without edge rusher Harold Landry, middle linebacker Robert Spillane and defensive tackle Khyiris Tonga again on Sunday as the Patriots will be extra cautious to get them ready for the post-season. Also, Milton Williams was not activated last week and probably won’t play again this week.
The New England secondary struggled in the week two match-up against the Dolphins, but Christian Gonzalez was out injured and the Dolphins still had Tyreek Hill healthy. A lot has changed on both teams since Tagovailoa threw for 315 yards and threw two touchdowns against the Patriots defense in week two.
Not having interior pass rusher Milton Williams (still on injured reserve with a high ankle sprain) puts additional pressure on Christian Barmore to push the pocket from the interior. Barmore was out due to illness from practice on Wednesday, but with the news breaking of him facing assault and battery charges for a domestic dispute back in August,
Without Landry on the edge, K’Lavon Chaisson again is needed to step up and deliver pressure on the quarterback this week. Rookie end Joshua Farmer is on injured reserve and last week against New York Anfernee Jennings stepped in as the starter.
Undrafted rookie Elijah Ponder got the opportunity to step in on the edge and played 55% of the snaps. Rookie Bradyn Swinson also had his opportunity for extended playing time in the blowout win, on the field for 42% of the snaps.
Young veterans Cory Durden and Eric Gregory have picked up extra playing time without Milton Williams available. Second-year defensive tackle Leonard Taylor got an opportunity for the second week in a row and was on the field for 22 plays on defense last week against the Jets.
New England, middle of the pack in blitz rate so far in 2025, is in an interesting position as far as game-planning. With so many injuries again and no need to rush anyone back, they need to win and should get back to more man-coverage on the Dolphins’ inferior receiving corps.
Carlton Davis, Marcus Jones and Christian Gonzalez need to be up on the line of scrimmage and jamming the Miami receivers, especially Jaylen Waddle. Waddle gets up to speed so quickly that he needs to be disrupted and not be allowed a free release. Taking away the initial reads with a young quarterback will only help the pass rush get to Ewers.
Run Defense:
The Dolphins, like the Jets, Ravens and Bills in the last few games, are going to come out intent on testing the New England run defense. New England has struggled stopping the run as they’ve focused on opposing passing attacks and having more defensive backs in coverage. Add in missing run-stuffers like linebacker Robert Spillane and Milton Williams and Khyiris Tonga up front, and Miami will be intent on controlling the tempo and keeping Drake Maye on the sidelines.
Miami features De’Von Achane in the running game, and with 1,350 yards rushing so far and a league-leading 5.7 yards per rush average, he is rightfully the focal point of the offense. A threat to break a run and show off his sprinter’s speed to the end zone, the Patriots will need to have levels of bodies in position to get him to the ground.
Achane showed up on the injury report this week with a shoulder injury. Going back over the film from the Bucs game, I didn’t see anywhere where the injury occurred. Achane was grinding out yards right up until the final non-kneeling possession. In fact, he was out and recovered the desperation onside kick attempt by Tampa Bay, leaping high in the air with both arms to snag the attempt.
Back-up Jaylen Wright has been solid averaging 4.6 yards per rush and has 265 yards and a pair of rushing touchdowns in limited playing time. The fourth-round pick in 2024 out of Tennessee has improved on his rookie season and even had a 100 yard rushing performance against the Jets four weeks ago.
For all of the hype about former Oklahoma State running back and sixth-round draft pick Ollie Gordon during the summer, he has had a humbling rookie season. With the back-up running back spot locked up early in the season due to a training camp leg injury slowing Wright, Gordon never got going and has struggled to get playing time as Wright has been more effective.
Gordon has 190 yards on 61 carries, a 3.1 yards per attempt average. Despite winning the Doak Walker award as a sophomore at Oklahoma State when he rushed for 1,732 yards and 21 rushing touchdowns, Gordon fell to the sixth round of the draft after his production was halved and he finished 2024 with 880 yards rushing and added a DUI arrest. Unfortunately for Miami, he has not proven to be a steal. The good news is that he is still young and should get a chance as a backup if Wright is starting for Achane.
Fullback Alec Ingold is a solid blocker and with the strong offensive line, the Dolphins have transformed into a ball-control rushing attack. Against New England in week two, the Dolphins abandoned the run early in the game as Achane had just 11 rushing attempts and did most of his damage in the passing game.
Edge rushers K’Lavon Chaisson and Anfernee Jennings are both solid on the edge against the run, but youngsters Bradyn Swinson and Elijah Ponder have to be strong and set the edge if pressed into service as Miami will test them. With a dangerous back like De’Von Achanel in the opposing backfield, it is a priority to stop the Dolphins’ run game early and often on Sunday.
Linebacker Robert Spillane is already ruled out for the game and is a huge loss against the run-heavy Jets offense. With Spillane out, Christian Ellis, Jahlani Tavai and Marte Mapu must pick up the aggressive, but limited athletically, Jack Gibbens in the run defense.
New England allowed Breece Hall 111 yards rushing last week, but his 59 yard touchdown run came with the backups on the field. He had been bottled up well earlier in the game as the Jets fell into a hole they couldn’t dig out of.
Cory Durden, a former undrafted free agent who bounced from the Lions to the Rams to the Giants, has been a revelation all year for the Patriots. Plucked off the scrap heap, he has found a regular role and now is picking up extra playing time in Milton Williams’ absence. He has been a steadying influence for the young defensive line.
The Patriots added impressive rookie Joshua Farmer to injured reserve and big man Khyiris Tonga is expected to be out again so more pressure on Durden and Barmore to step up this week. The Patriots will also need more from Jeremiah Pharms and Eric Gregory. They may elevate from the practice squad yet again to add depth and Leonard Taylor, who has been elevated the past two weeks, is likely to play a role again this week.
For New England, this game will test their beat-up defense after the Jets passed on showing up at home in week 17. The Dolphins are travelling up north in January and the temperature should be in the 20’s and dropping throughout the evening. Starting at 4:25 means the sun will be down and it will be chilly in Foxboro.
Stopping Miami’s rushing attack early can get them out of rhythm and get Miami thinking about the plane ride back to Southern Florida and more temperate climates and starting their offseason. It will take a full team effort to slow down this dangerous rushing attack, but as Cincinnati and Pittsburgh both did to the Dolphins earlier this month, the Patriots should be able to break their spirit and slow them down.
Other Factors:
The Patriots faced a huge test with the Jets top-ranked special teams last week and passed with flying colors.. The kickoff coverage unit bounced back against the Ravens and Jets after the Bills used returner Ray Davis as a weapon piling up 41.0 yards per return. New England is tenth in kickoff return defense allowing just 25.29 yards per kick per The Football Database.
The Dolphins struck in the punt return game against the Patriots in week two with speed returner Malik Washington taking a punt 74 yards. The New England punt coverage has improved in the past few weeks as they have been near the bottom of the league. Currently, they are no longer the worst but rank 23rd in punt coverage allowing 12.52 yards per return.
Washington has returned all the punts but one this season, and averages 13.6 yards per return. He also returns kickoffs along with Ollie Gordon. D’Wayne Eskridge had been the primary kick returner but he landed on injured reserve. Gordon has just one kick return so far this season, so kicking to him could be the game plan.
The Patriots are middle of the pack in kickoff returns, averaging 25.45 yards per return. Antonio Gibson was fantastic in the kick return game and had a 90-yard touchdown return against Miami in the week two match-up that turned the tide of that game. However, since he went to injured reserve the Patriots have had TreVeyon Henderson, Kyle Williams, Terrell Jennnings, Rhamondre Stevenson and Efton Chism as the returner with mixed results.
With the injuries at wide receiver, New England didn’t risk Chism and Williams on special teams and D’Ernest Johnson handled the kickoff returns last week. Expect more of Johnson back there this week.
New England has the number one ranked punt return unit (17.29 yards per return) in the NFL. Marcus Jones has handled all the punt returns. He had an 87-yard return against Carolina for a touchdown and almost broke another as he took it 61 yards. Against the Giants, he broke open the floodgates with a 94-yard touchdown return where the blocking allowed him to run untouched until the Scottish Hammer got a fingernail on him as the last man to beat.
The opportunities have been limited for Jones as teams just don’t want to risk giving him a returnable punt. Both the Jets and the Ravens the past two weeks didn’t dare give him an opportunity as all their punts were unreturnable.
In the kicking game, New England Patriots rookie sixth-round draft pick kicker Andy Borregales continues to settle in after a rough start to his rookie season. He missed two extra points in week two and missed a field goal in week one. Since week two he has been perfect on extra points and has missed just three field goals, including one last week.
Punter Bryce Baringer still had an inconvenient wobbler every once in a while but overall has been solid. He was no doubt aware of the Jets’ potential game-breaking ability on special teams and did not give them any return chances when he finally was called upon to punt when New England was ahead by over 30 points. Rookie long snapper, Julian Ashby, has been fine but has had some poor snaps on occasion in the punting game.
Old friend Joe Cardona handles the long snapping for Miami. I haven’t seen any YouTube clips uploaded of bad snaps by Cardona, so it seems he has been fine this season in the role for Miami. Another former Patriot, Jake Bailey, handles the punting duties for Miami. Bailey has been in Miami for three years after having punted for four years in New England. He is averaging a career high 48.4 yards per punt.
Miami has well-travelled veteran kicker Riley Patterson holding down the job all season. He has played for six different teams in five NFL seasons with multiple stops in Cleveland and Detroit on his resume. He has kicked well, missing just two field goals and one extra point. His longest field goal this season was a career-high 54 yards.
Game Pick:
The Patriots, at 13-3 and leading the AFC East, are 11.5 point favorites at home against a wildly inconsistent Miami Dolphins team that benched its franchise quarterback and gave up six touchdowns to a checked out Cincinnati Bengals team two weeks ago. However, Miami showed some moxie last week playing spoiler against Tampa Bay and the Patriots are likely to not rush anyone back from injury with the playoffs around the corner.
The Dolphins players are booking vacations already once they get out of Foxboro on Sunday night but seventh-round draft pick and former Longhorn Quinn Ewers was solid against the Bucs last week. With this his last chance to show in his trial that he could be in consideration to compete for the starting job in 2026, Ewers wants nothing more than to make a statement against one of the top teams in the AFC.
The Dolphins aren’t the Bills or the Ravens. That said, they’re not as pitiful as the hapless Jets last week, either. The Patriots have made their run to the playoffs by not getting beat against inferior opponents (other than that rough start to the season in September) and there’s no reason to expect them to take their foot off the pedal here in week 18 with the top seed in the AFC and a bye week a possibility.
New England has to stop the Miami run game and be able to move the ball on the ground. Tampa couldn’t do that last week and lost. Cincinnati did just that the week prior (Miami was down 45-14 early in the fourth quarter in that game, remember, and piled up a bunch of garbage yards in the fourth quarter to skew the statistics).
I don’t expect New England to blow out Miami like they blew out the Jets last week, but I do firmly believe that Drake Maye going against the Miami secondary will be enough to get New England the win, but I expect the Dolphins to at least come out and compete--unlike the Jets last week. Miami may move the ball a little but the Patriots should pull away with a late cover against the Dolphins on Sunday afternoon.
DOLPHINS 17 @ PATRIOTS 30
Spread: Patriots -11.5: Patriots
Moneyline: Patriots -675, Dolphins +490: Patriots
O/U: 45.5: Over
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