Five NFL Draft Thoughts for Picks 1 through 5 - Monday, 04/07/2025
Some free time, so some free thoughts on the upcoming NFL Draft:
Pick #1 - Tennessee Titans
The mystery is gone with the number one overall pick. Miami quarterback Cam Ward is locked in as the top pick. The burning question is whether Ward is a number one quarterback. His one season at Miami (FL) was fantastic, but he almost declared for the NFL Draft last season after two years at Washington State and prior to the combine and offseason workouts and interviews would have had him slotted into the middle rounds.
To his credit, Ward has shown improvement each season throughout his five year college career and he would hardly be the first quarterback to put it all together late in his time at school and carry over as a legitimate NFL quarterback. Another positive is that he is a leader with excellent athleticism and ability to make plays outside of structure.
The Titans, like most teams picking early in the NFL Draft, have numerous needs on both sides of the ball, but quarterback is a desperate need. Will Levis cost Mike Vrabel his job in Tennessee (remember, that 6-11 2023 season saw Tennessee lose 7 one-score games, including two in overtime). The problem was Ryan Tannehill was over-the-hill and Levis was not an NFL starter then or now.
They’ll draft Ward, and I think he’ll be a solid starting quarterback, but with needs at wide receiver (Calvin Ridley and…well, no one else who should be starting in the NFL) and cornerback (LaJarius Sneed, who was out most of last season and maybe you can sell me on Roger McCreary as an adequate slot cornerback, but he was benched last year and allowed a 104.9 QB rating in coverage), they will regret passing on the best player in the NFL Draft, wide receiver/cornerback Travis Hunter.
Pick #2 - Cleveland Browns
Speaking of teams with a desolate wasteland at the quarterback position, check out the Browns. In a division with three perennial playoff teams (Baltimore, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh), they have DeShaun Watson, who is out for the season injured and will probably never play in another NFL game, and Kenny Pickett. That’s it.
After improbably riding Joe Flacco to a surprise 11-6 record and making the playoffs, the offensive-minded head coach fired offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt and brought in Bills’ cast-off Jim Dorsey. The offense cratered from 10th in 2023 to dead last in points scored in 2024. Somehow, head coach Kevin Stephanski kept his job!
The offense has wide receiver Jerry Jeudy, tight end David Njoku and…well, nothing else. There are a few decent offensive linemen, but upgrades are needed there as well. The defense has Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward, but outside of those two there aren’t any players who would crack the starting lineup of another franchise (maybe, just maybe, you can sell me on slot cornerback Greg Newsome).
The Browns need a franchise quarterback, but with Cam Ward iffy as a franchise quarterback, the only other quarterbacks in the conversation in the first round are Colorado’s Shadeur Sanders and Mississippi’s Jaxson Dart. Neither would be a first-round pick in most years, but this season they could both go anywhere from the top-ten to the third round.
Even if they decide they should take Sanders or Dart, good luck getting “Neon Deion’s” son to play in Cleveland. Dart, who has “Mac Jones 2.0” written all over him, would need to be on the 2022 San Francisco 49ers to be effective in the NFL.
Cleveland should draft Penn State edge rusher Abdul Carter or Colorado’s multi-positional threat Travis Hunter and tank for Arch Manning. Whether they are smart enough to do so remains to be seen, but there should be zero expectations in Cleveland for winning more than five games in 2025 regardless of who the pick is here.
Pick #3 - New York Giants
The Giants are betting on Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston to handle the quarterback position, which puts them squarely in the “Tanking for Arch Manning” category with Cleveland. With quarterbacks Shadeur Sanders and Jaxson Dart not worthy of the third overall pick (or even the 33rd overall pick), the Giants should be in prime position to pick one of the two special players in the NFL Draft.
The problem the Giants would face is with Cleveland taking Travis Hunter ahead of them. The Giants found two starters at skill position players last year in wide receiver Malik Nabors and running back Tyrone Tracy. Adding Hunter to the wide receiver mix just in third down/red zone packages while starting at cornerback would be a huge lift on both sides of the ball.
Abdul Carter is an impact player on defense, but the Giants already have invested major assets in the edge rusher position. Draft picks were sent to Carolina for Brian Burns last season and 2022 top-five pick Kayvon Thibodeaux is on the other edge. Adding the third overall pick to a terrible defense and putting him on the bench makes no sense.
New York could surprise and draft for need. They could use a defensive linemen to slot next to Dexter Lawrence. Inside/off-ball linebacker is a need, but not this high in the draft. Cornerback is definitely an option as well.
Another wide receiver would be a strange pick after drafting Nabors high and this draft class really doesn’t have anyone close to top-ten value (sorry, Tetairoa McMillian, big and slow wide receivers aren’t on the top of the list for my draft values), but more depth would be useful.
Tight end is a huge need, and this draft has a couple of studs in Penn State’s Tyler Warren or Michigan’s Colston Loveland who could be an option. The offensive line was terrible last season and the Giants’ brass seems to be going for continuity and the health of Andrew Thomas bringing improvement rather than fresh faces.
Number three seems a little high for a tight end, so while the Giants should go with the best available player and take whoever is left whether it is Carter or Hunter, but with the need at offensive line and a quarterback with little mobility, they may help the New England Patriots out and pass on one of those two impact players and grab either LSU tackle/guard Will Campbell or Missouri right tackle Armand Membou.
Pick #4 - New England Patriots
I’ve written a lot about the Patriots’ draft needs (check out any of my previous mock drafts), but I’ll add a few more thoughts here.
As you can gather from the thoughts on the first three picks, Abdul Carter and Travis Hunter are the only two players in this draft that are going to be impact players on day one. If both are off the board when New England picks at fourth overall, this gets into the “what’s your favorite flavor” part of the draft.
Once past Ward, Carter and Hunter, any of the remaining top-20 or so players could be picked at any time. Except for maybe one “can’t miss impact player” at a position that is not valued at that high in the draft.
One wild card is Boise State’s running back Ashton Jeanty. He may be the only other player that is going to hit the ground running (pun included) in 2025. The problem? New England just extended running back Rhamondre Stevenson and are paying him like a top-ten running back. In addition, they invested in back-up running back Antonio Gibson.
Other than a third-down running back, the position is in good shape. Drafting Jeanty would make Stevenson expendable, but he is signed through 2028 (technically 2027, as there is no guaranteed money after 2027) and this draft is so deep at running back that no franchise is dumb enough to give up a draft pick and take on Stevenson and his contract (ok, maybe Cleveland).
I don’t think the Patriots’ front office has the conviction to take Jeanty. That would leave “trade-down” as the best option. Unfortunately, it would be very unlikely teams would offer much draft capital to jump out as anyone between four and twenty have a realistic shot of having at least one of their top players on their draft board available without trading up.
Pick #5 - Jacksonville Jaguars
I have seen so many mock drafts that have Jacksonville taking defensive tackle Mason Graham from Michigan. I get it--Graham jumps off the game tape as a disruptive force in the middle of the defensive line. He has good size, great power and surprising quickness and athleticism. His stats back up his dominance last year.
Jacksonville spent a second-round pick on Maason Smith last year and he looks like a keeper inside. Former first-round draft picks Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker bring the pass rush from the outside. A penetrating interior defensive tackle is definitely a need.
But the difference between Graham and Derrick Harmon, and Walter Nolan is negligible, and Harmon or Nolan may be available in the second round. Graham is good, don’t get me wrong, but he’s no Jalen Carter. He’ll be a good NFL player, but so will Nolan and Harmon.
Edge rusher is not really a need with two first-round picks already, but the secondary in Jacksonville was beyond terrible last year. Their best cornerback was Ronald Darby.
Yup, the same Ronald Darby who got only $2.5 million to sign in Houston for one year. Now, their number one cornerback is who? Jarrian Jones? Tyson Campbell? They brought in Jourdan Lewis, so now he will either play on the outside or Jones will be pushed outside, even though both are far superior in the slot. (Yes, this still have Darnell Savage on the roster, who they brought in to play slot cornerback last year.)
Ugh.
Safety is not much better. Andre Cisco was their best safety last year and they didn’t make much of an effort to keep him prior to free agency and he signed with the Jets. The Jaguars brought in Kenneth Murray from Houston, which is only a slight improvement.
The offensive line tried to kill quarterback Trevor Lawrence last year, and although the Jaguars brought in veteran interior offensive linemen Patrick Mekari from Baltimore and Robert Hainsey from Tampa Bay, they could use an upgrade inside or also on the outside where Walker Little and Anton Harrison were…well, let’s be nice and say less than adequate (in other words, they sucked!).
So cornerback, safety, or an offensive lineman seems like a bigger need than defensive tackle.
I wouldn’t be shocked if a tight end or another wide receiver is drafted high after Gabe Davis was a bust in free agency last year and I don’t know if anyone believes former Commanders wide receiver Dyami Brown is ready to break out. They also let go of Christian Kirk and lack a starting slot receiver (sorry Parker Washington stans, if there are any of you out there).
Brian Thomas was a grand slam pick in the first round last year, but the tight end position is populated with about five tight ends, and none of them are starting material. Add tight end and wide receiver to the big needs in consideration to be drafted high this year.
Jacksonville has needs almost everywhere, so I can’t convince myself that Graham is the automatic pick. Offensive line, wide receiver, tight end, cornerback and safety all have options at this point of the draft.
Armand Membou and Will Campbell as options if they want a guard or tackle. Tetaroia McMillan isn’t my cup of tea, but he may be a decent complement to Thomas on the outside. Tyler Warren and Colston Loveland are options at tight end.
Michigan’s Will Johnson could be the choice for cornerback, and either Malaki Starks from Georgia or South Carolina’s Nick Emmanwori are potential starters at safety if drafted.
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