NFL Kickoff Weekend has arrived at last!
The NFL is rolling out an action packed weekend of games with the Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles facing bitter division rival Dallas on the traditional Thursday Night game.
This season, the NFL has added a Friday Night game, with the Super Bowl runner-up Kansas City Chiefs in Brazil against their division rival the Los Angeles Chargers in a game exclusively streaming on YouTube.
That’s followed up by eight games in the 1:00 PM Eastern time block and then three games in the 4:05/4:25PM Eastern time block. As usual, Sunday Night Football has a marquee match-up in week one as the AFC North division champion Baltimore Ravens travel to Buffalo to face the AFC East division champion Bills.
It all wraps up for week one with two more division rivals facing off on Monday Night Football as the Minnesota Vikings travel to Illinois to face the Chicago Bears.
Each week during the season, I will be making my picks with my buddy David on his SportsKrunch with DKrom podcast as we’ve done regularly for the past five years (and pre-pandemic as well). This weeks’ episode is available here.
Please give a listen each week on your preferred podcast provider. All back episodes are available here at Apple podcasts.
Now, on to the picks!
Thursday Night Football:
Cowboys 16 at Eagles (-7) 31
Against the Spread: Eagles
Straight up: Eagles
I expect the Cowboys to come out fired up despite trading away Micah Parsons in a surprising end to his contract negotiations. Dallas has not been the same team without Parsons these past years and could get run over. I think the Eagles defense is not going to be as tough as it was last year with its numerous offseason losses of personnel, but for week one to kick off the season, they’ll be fine.
(Edit: Well, that’s a L against the spread already, as I expected Jalen Carter to disrupt the Dallas offense and force at least one turnover instead of being ejected before the first offensive snap of the season for spitting on Dak Prescott.)
Friday Night Football:
Chiefs 24 (-3) – Chargers 27
Against the Spread: Chargers
Straight up: Chargers
The Chiefs are favored but I feel like their luck in one-score games is eventually going to crash. They’ve been insanely fortunate to have Steve Spagnuolo as basically “Head Coach - Defense” since 2019 and that continuity with Andy Reid in charge since 2013 has covered up a lot of personnel losses. The Chargers and Broncos are real competition this year in the AFC West, this should be the year there’s a change in the AFC West.
(Edit: Here’s a win for me to even things up going into Sunday. Bully for the Chargers finally facing their demons and holding on for the win…although there were some shaky moments of clock management in the fourth quarter.)
Sunday 1:00 PM Games:
Lock of the Week:
Bengals 38 (-6) - Browns 16
Against the Spread: Bengals
Straight up: Bengals
The Bengals’troubles getting going to start the season are well chronicled. Fortunately, the schedule makers gave them a gift this year. For Cincinnati, the offense is excellent with their offensive line problems looking like a thing of the past. Defense is the issue. Fortunately, the Browns’ offense is lacking, and with rookie running back Quinshon Judkins still unsigned, a lacking unit is in worse shape.
Upset Special:
Panthers 27 - Jags (-3) 22
Against the Spread: Panthers
Straight up: Panthers
Week one is usually unpredictable with weird upsets, so I’ll highlight my faith in the growth of Bryce Young as the Panthers ride their rebuilt offensive line and upgraded defense to a win over the Jaguars. I’m actually bullish on Jacksonville, but feel this team may need some time to gel under first time head coach Liam Coen.
Giants 20 - Commanders (-6) 27
Against the Spread: Eagles
Straight up: Eagles
The Giants should be improved…once they bench Russell Wilson for Jaxson Dart. The Giants could be a sneaky upset special here, but Washington is really all in for 2025 and with a rebuilt offensive line and another round of veteran imports on defense.
Cardinals (-6.5) 30 at Saints 6
Against the Spread: Cardinals
Straight up: Cardinals
This very easily could have been my lock of the week. The Saints are terrible. They’re kind of finally leaning into a rebuild but they still are kind of in a weird limbo and with their quarterbacks they have no shot. The Cardinals are sneaky good in a tough NFC West as they’ve upgraded the defense significantly and this should be a breakout year for Marvin Harrison Jr.
Bucs (-2.5) 27 at Falcons 25
Against the Spread: Bucs
Straight up: Bucs
Atlanta is a trendy pick in the NFC South but I’m not sold on Michael Penix yet. The Falcons are working on fixing the defense but they’re still going to struggle to generate a pass rush to protect their secondary. Tampa Bay struck gold with Emeka Egbuka in the draft and Baker Mayfield should keep the offense rolling. Todd Bowles got the defense figured out in the second half last year and should be good enough this week and throughout the season.
Dolphins 17 at Colts (-1.5) 19
Against the Spread: Colts
Straight up: Colts
The Dolphins are in a weird situation. A bunch of stars on offense, but huge questions on the left side of the offensive line. Will Tua stay healthy? Can Tyreek Hill bounce back? The secondary is a terrible mess in Miami and that puts pressure on the front seven to dominate. Indianapolis is starting Daniel Jones at quarterback, but as scary as that is they do have a strong offensive line, rookie tight end Tyler Warren and some good players on defense.
Raiders 20 at Patriots (-3) 24
Against the Spread: Patriots
Straight up: Patriots
My in-depth game analysis is here: http://bostonsportpage.blogspot.com/2025/09/w2w4-new-england-patriots-vs-las-vegas.html
Steelers 16 (-3) at Jets 11
Against the Spread: Steelers
Straight up: Steelers
I’m not sold on Aaron Rodgers being the answer in Pittsburgh as I don’t think he’s much better than Russell Wilson at this point of his career. The Steelers’ defense is still one of the best in the league, solid across the board in the front seven and secondary. The Jets are rebuilding and Aaron Glenn is probably the right coach for the job. That said, Justin Fields at quarterback is not very inspiring and outside of Garrett Wilson there’s not much on offense. Add in Alijah Vera-Tucker missing 2025 and their one strength is diminished. The defense is good and defensive coordinator Steve Wilks is a big upgrade who should help mask some holes in the secondary.
Titans 20 at Broncos (-8.5) 27
Against the Spread: Broncos
Straight up: Broncos
I’m high on the Broncos after being the number one critic of them drafting Bo Nix. As usual, Sean Payton knows his quarterbacks and should be able to manufacture enough offense to pair with his ridiculously strong defense. I am a huge fan of Cam Ward and believe that Tennessee got the real deal at quarterback. They have a way to go on the rebuild and a terrible ownership group, but they should be competitive and improve.
Sunday 4:05/4:25PM Games:
49ers (-2.5) 24 at Seahawks 27
Against the Spread: Seahawks
Straight up: Seahawks
Picking the Seahawks at home counts as an upset special? Not in my book. Yes, San Francisco should be better, but the wide receiver position is weak and Christian McCaffrey can’t be counted on to stay healthy. Seattle moving on to Sam Darnold at quarterback is an upgrade and rookie Gray Zabel will help the running game up front. On defense, Mike MacDonald will have this unit ready to go after taking some time to get it straightened out last year.
Lions 28 at Packers (-1.5) 24
Against the Spread: Lions
Straight up: Lions
I love the Packers on both sides of the ball and picked them to go to the Super Bowl. However, the NFC North is insanely talented and the Lions will still be an equal. Matthew Golden helps the Packers take the next step on offense, but the Lions get Aidan Hutchinson back and have rookie Tyleik Williams to help him rush inside. The Lions are still strong on offense even without Ben Johnson coordinating and rookie receiver Isaac TeSlaa looks like yet another perfect fit for Jared Goff.
Texans 20 at Rams (-2.5) 17
Against the Spread: Texans
Straight up: Texans
Two division winners who are expected to repeat face off in week one. The health of quarterback Matthew Stafford is the big question for Los Angeles. Davante Adams should be a huge lift for the offense and the Rams’ young defensive line makes them a must watch each week. Houston revamped the offensive line and receiver position for C.J. Stroud. He needs to show growth in year three after regressing last season. The Houston defense is their strength and should be good again and rookie corner Jaylin Smith could be a third round steal and an immediate contributor.
Sunday Night Football:
Ravens 38 – Bills (-0.5) 27
Against the Spread: Ravens
Straight up: Ravens
I know the Ravens are known for running the football, but that improved passing offense from last season is what’s needed this week. Buffalo is solid up front (at least until Joey Bosa has his annual season-ending injury) but the secondary is a mess behind stud cornerback Christian Benford. Defensive coordinator Zach Orr took a while to get the defense straightened out last year, but expect Baltimore to be able to slow down even the best offenses with this strong unit that added rookies Malaki Starks and Mike Green to it.
Monday Night Football:
Vikings (-1.5) 28 at Bears 16
Against the Spread: Vikings
Straight up: Vikings
I get that the Bears are a trendy pick this year (wait, weren’t they the trendy pick last year?) with Ben Johnson at the helm and the young talent at wide receiver, but left tackle is a mess and importing an aging Grady Jarrett is not going to fix the defense. Minnesota turns the offense over to J.J. McCarthy but as long as Justin Jefferson is at wide receiver, they’ll be fine. Brian Flores should keep the defense humming and make opponents uncomfortable enough to cover some growing pains on offense.
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