I remember December 1985 with a rare Patriots Monday Night Football game with Tony Eason throwing an interception with a minute to play in the Orange Bowl down three points and on the edge of field goal range. That confidence of almost having won that game led to the “Squish the Fish” AFC Championship game back in the Orange Bowl a month later where the Patriots piled up over 250 yards rushing and the defense forced six turnovers to get New England to the Super Bowl for the first time.
There was the game in old Foxboro Stadium, having been at the Boston Garden to see Aerosmith on New Years Day the night before, in the freezing cold way up in the upper deck with my ass frozen to the aluminum bench seating, watching Scott Mitchell and Drew Bledsoe facing off in a classic that went to overtime and Michael Timpson catching the long pass from Bledsoe (his fourth TD pass) to knock the Dolphins out of the playoffs.
That’s ancient history, but in the Brady years the Dolphins would occasionally pull out an early season win in the Miami heat, or serve as the team they would lose to seemingly on purpose to establish more favorable playoff positioning. Dolphins fans love to bring up the “Miami Miracle” play, but the Patriots got back on track and won their sixth Super Bowl that year while the Dolphins still haven’t won a playoff game since 2000.
My little mental replay to introduce this game is a distraction because both teams in 2025 looked absolutely dreadful in week one. I needed a little mental runback through history to get myself excited for the match-up this week.
Last Week:
The New England Patriots’ week one game was the Tale of Two Cities: It was the best of times, it was the worst of times. After a slow start, Drake Maye was flinging the ball around by the end of the first quarter as New England engineered a 12 play, 11 play and nine play drive resulting in ten points (and a missed field goal by rookie kicker Andres Borregales) to take a 10-7 lead at the half.
After the Raiders drove down the field easily on the initial drive for a touchdown, the Patriots ended the next drive with an interception by Jaylinn Hawkins (on a nice play by Carlton Davis tipping the ball way in coverage) and then forced three straight three-and-outs before a frantic drive before halftime ended in the Raiders missing a field goal.
At that point, the Patriots seemingly had the game in hand. However, a bad interception by Maye under duress ended another extended drive leading to the Raiders touchdown and shifted the momentum of the entire game. At that point, the New England offense faltered and the defense allowed two more scoring drives, including a back-breaking 12 play drive eating almost seven minutes in the fourth quarter, to lose to the Raiders 20-13.
But it could have been worse. The Dolphins kicked off their season in Indianapolis, but no one told the players apparently. As head coach Mike McDaniel stood on the sideline daydreaming, his vaunted offense with his $50 million per year quarterback and two highly paid wide receivers piled up 133 yards through the air.
The defense, which had looked so good at the end of last season, was shredded by Daniel Jones (yes, that is not a typo). The Colts scored on all seven times they had the ball including drives of 14, 17 and 15 plays as Miami had no answers for the running game of the Colts or Michael PIttman Jr or rookie tight end Tyler Warren.
It was a disaster on both sides of the ball for Miami, and an embarrassment for McDaniel as cameras picked up a frustrated Tyreek Hill on the sidelines. They lost starting cornerback Storm Duck for a few weeks due to an ankle injury and their big free agent acquisition, guard James Daniels, is on injured reserve for four games after injuring his pectoral during the game.
How to Watch/Listen to the Game:
This week’s game will be broadcast by CBS again and can be seen locally in the greater Boston area on WBZ-TV Channel 4 and in the greater Providence area on WPRI-TV Channel 12.
On CBS, Andrew Catalon will handle play-by-play duties with Jason McCourty and Charles Davis as the color analysts. AJ Ross will provide analysis from the sidelines. Don’t be fooled by the three-man booth, this is hardly a big game for CBS.
On the radio, this week’s game will be on local radio on 98.5 The Sports Hub in Boston and broadcast on the Patriots Radio Network with 33 stations around New England and one station (WHTK 1280 AM) in Rochester, NY. Play-by-play broadcaster Bob Socci will call the action along with former Patriots quarterback and Sports Hub personality Scott Zolak providing his usual brand of analysis.
Key Stats:
No quarterback in the NFL had more pass attempts or drop-backs in week one than Drake Maye. The running backs had just 13 rushing attempts combined for 46 yards. So much for the ground-and-pound offense and taking advantage of the supposed strength of the offensive line run blocking.
With a 10-7 lead, the Patriots got the ball to start the second half and didn’t attempt to run the ball on six straight passing plays. After the interception and Las Vegas touchdown to take a 14-10 lead, the Patriots went three-and-out with three straight incompletions. The next drive had an end-around, another pass attempt and ended with a sack.
Three drives to open the second half and the ball never was put in a running back’s hands to attempt a run. The only running back with a rushing attempt in the second half of the game was Antonio Gibson on the first play of the fourth quarter.
Neither TreVeyon Henderson nor Rhamondre Stevenson logged a carry after Stephenson’s no gain on third-and-one with 53 seconds left in the first half. That is not a sound strategy in a close game.
Also disturbing was the lack of success on third down and in the red zone. The Patriots were just 4 of 14 on third downs and had one touchdown to show for three trips to the red zone.
On defense, the Patriots allowed Las Vegas to convert just 5 of 13 third downs and allowed just one trip to the red zone. Despite the highly-touted Ashton Jeanty running the ball, the New England defense showed up against the run and allowed just 56 yards on the ground on 24 attempts, a dismal 2.3 yards per rush.
Of course, allowing 362 passing yards to Geno Smith isn’t the start many were anticipating from the defense. Big plays in the passing game were the difference as Smith hit explosive plays of 38 yards to Brock Bowers, 28 and 26 yard plays to Tre Tucker, rookies Dont’e Thornton added a 36 yard reception and Jack Bech a 23 yarder, and even Jakobi Meyers added a 24 yard reception.
NE Offense vs MIA Defense:
The Dolphins, like the Patriots last week, had major struggles on defense. This should be a get-right game for New England’s offense after Daniel Jones led the Colts to over 400 yards of total offense and held Miami to a garbage time touchdown.
However, the Miami defense, which ranked 10th in the NFL last year under coordinator Anthony Weaver, no doubt are looking at the sad performance by New England versus Las Vegas and thinking this is their own get-right game.
Pass Offense:
The Dolphins have a deep pass rush unit. In fact, they may have overplayed their hand in trying to split time evenly for their four edge rushers. Jaelan Phillips and Chop Robinson are both young, explosive and game disrupters. Instead, Miami did Indianapolis a favor by running out their over-the-hill veterans Bradley Chubb and Matt Judon (remember him?). While Chubb had the only sack for Miami,
Tackles Morgan Moses and rookie Will Campbell will have their hands full with the Miami pass rush. Forget about how the Colts’ tackles handled the Miami pass rush. They have two above-average tackles--New England has a raw rookie and a past-his-prime veteran--which is still a huge step up from 2024.
The Patriots had some success passing the ball against the Raiders, but the offense failed to put points on the board with a missed field goal, a bad interception, and then the offense completely fell out of sync.
Despite improved play at wide receiver, Stefon Diggs did not add any explosive plays and fellow free agent acquisition Mack Hollins made little impact. Kayshon Boutte topped 100 yards receiving with a number of chunk plays.
However, DeMario Douglas was a disappointment with only two receptions on seven targets and ended up with negative receiving yards (despite hauling in the only touchdown). In Josh McDaniels’ offense, Douglas needs to do more with seven targets and Kyle Williams and undrafted free agent Efton Chism could be taking those targets soon if his poor play continues.
Tight ends Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper combined for five receptions and 76 yards against the Raiders and are poised to have a big impact in week two. Miami had no answers for rookie tight end Tyler Warren last week as the Colts’ impressive rookie piled up seven receptions for 76 yards as the Miami linebackers and safeties struggled to contain him.
The Dolphins secondary was thin before the season started and after trading Jalen Ramsey were even thinner. Presumed starter Cam Smith is still on the Non-Football Injury list and their other presumed starters Artie Burns and Kader Kohou are on injured reserve.
Storm Duck was pressed into service in week one and was injured in the first quarter and will miss multiple games. The Dolphins are down to fifth-round draft pick Jason Marshall in the slot and a pair of veterans in Jack Jones (another familiar name) and Rasul Douglas, who had worn out their welcome in multiple cities and were the only remaining free agents.
New England needs the tight ends and wide receivers to lift up Drake Maye and the passing game in week two. There should be multiple opportunities for big play opportunities with gambling cornerbacks like Jones and Douglas vulnerable to double-moves. For that, the offensive line needs to slow that Miami pass rush and keep Maye clean in the pocket.
Run Offense:
The Patriots fell into a strange trap against Las Vegas by abandoning the running game before halftime. While Rhamondre Stevenson was completely ineffective (seven rushes for 15 yards) TreVeyon Henderson was much more effective gaining 27 yards on five attempts. Change of pace back Antonio Gibson got just one carry.
More disturbing than offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels getting locked on the passing game in what was a one-score game was the fact that the head coach wasn’t insisting on getting back to the running game. Heck, where was Thomas Brown, Todd Downing or Doug Marrone? All three offensive assistants were either an offensive coordinator or head coach in the past and should have intervened and straightened out McDaniels’ wayward play calling.
Also, quarterback Drake Maye was one of the most effective running quarterbacks as a rookie in 2024 averaging a ridiculous 7.8 yards per attempt. Rather than take advantage of the dual-threat weapon, there were no designed runs for Maye and he looked tentative leaving the pocket as if he was afraid to tuck and run.
The Dolphins’ front seven is the strength of their defense, but they were run all over by the Colts. The Colts offensive line dominated Zach Seiler, first-round draft pick Kenneth Grant and Benito Jones. Veteran linebackers Tyrel Dodson and captain Jordyn Brooks did what they could with 27 combined tackles, but Indianapolis wore them down with 40 rushes for 156 yards.
The Patriots running game was expected to be their strength in week one against Las Vegas. Rookies Will Campbell and Jared Wilson had a road-grader reputation that did not show on the field last week. The same for veterans center Garrett Bradbury and right tackle Morgan Moses who have historically been better blocking in the run game.
New England didn’t show the dedication to pound the ball and impose their will in week one. Maybe the offensive line with four new starters needs more time to gel, but they need to get it together as the Miami defense should be able to be run on.
MIA Offense vs NE Defense
As much as New England overhauled their defense this offseason, the Raiders and head coach Pete Carroll, offensive coordinator Chip Kelly and quarterback Geno Smith made big play after big play against the New England defense. Credit that trio with having a solid plan to build on Smith’s downfield strengths and not abandoning the running game even when it wasn’t effective.
Miami is difficult to figure out because they can’t possibly play as badly as they did in week one, right?
Head coach Mike McDaniel was the toast of the town with his high-powered offense with innovative motion and running game making the offense unstoppable as long as quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was healthy. Never investing in a proper backup quarterback, the constant injuries to Tagovailoa gave McDaniel an excuse for failures to make and win playoff games.
Last year, the offense imploded, with or without Tua as the offensive line sprung leak and the running game was just average. Both Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill failed to reach 1,000 yards receiving after back to back years where they combined for almost 3,000 yards receiving in both 2022 and 2023.
The Dolphins decided to move on from tight end Jonnu Smith after an effective year last season, deciding they didn’t want to extend him. Julian Hill and Tanner Conner split the tight end duties but neither did much with just Conner catching two passes and Hill shut out.
Speedy running back De’Von Achane burst onto the scene as a rookie in 2023 averaging 7.8 yards per rush. However, his production dropped last year to just 4.5 yards per rush and failed to reach 1,000 yards on the ground. Last week, he had the only touchdown (receiving) and ripped off a 15 yard and 26 yard run--both in garbage time with the Dolphins down 30 points.
Pass Defense:
The Patriots will again be without starting cornerback Christian Gonzalez. Carlton Davis, other than terrible coverage on a third-and-twenty play, was very good, with his tipped pass leading to the only turnover created. Marcus Jones and Alex Austin should get plenty of playing time but the Patriots oddly released young cornerback DJ James during the week leaving the position a bit thin.
Rookie fourth-round pick Craig Woodson and Jaylin Hawkins were just okay in week one. Hawkins had an interception and sack, but also had some poor coverage that led to the Raiders first touchdown and some first downs. They both played 100% of the snaps with Dell Pettus in for 8 snaps and Kyle Dugger playing just 7 snaps.
What was good to see was free agent acquisition Milton Williams and a healthy Christian Barmore attacking the interior of the Las Vegas offensive line last week causing disruptions in the passing and running game. Khyris Tonga was strong against the run when in on early downs.
K’Lavon Chaisson and Harold Landry handled most of the edge rushing snaps, spelled primarily by Keion White. Camp sensation Elijah Ponder got only a handful of snaps on defense. Former starter Anfernee Jennings was inactive for the game. Chaisson and Landry combined for three sacks.
Miami had a terrible time dealing with the pressure concepts dialed up by new Indianapolis defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo brought blitzers from all over with slot cornerbacks twice making big plays blitzing and being unaccounted for in coverage. They even pulled out the old zone blitz concepts from 1986 and Tagovailoa looked lost twice throwing interceptions when Indianapolis was dropping defensive linemen into coverage and had Tagovailoa making terrible throws overall.
Miami supposedly upgraded the offensive line, but pricey free agent guard James Daniels, who missed most of last season due to injury, was lost in the first quarter. Young guard Jonah Savaiinaea and tackle Patrick Paul required that veteran presence around them and instead had Kion Smith, another unproven young player, thrust into action.
Miami already lost Austin Jackson for at least this matchup with New England as the right guard was lost in week one to a toe injury. That leaves Larry Borom, who was graded in the Vederian Lowe/Demontray Jacobs levels last season, which is not encouraging for Miami able to protect Tagovailoa.
New England needs to set the tone early and get pressure on the quarterback against the Dolphins. Tagovailoa is one of the best quarterbacks when he has time to sit back in the pocket and scan the field and make throws. Conversely, he’s among the worst when under pressure.
Run Defense:
The New England run defense was the highlight on defense in week one after an abysmal 2024. Nose tackle Khyris Tonga was impactful in the middle and Milton Williams and Christian Barmore were in the backfield blowing up the running plays. As expected, inside linebackers Christian Ellis and Robert Spillane did well holding rookie Ashton Jeanty to a 2.0 yards per rush average.
Edge rushers Harold Landry showed why he’s a proven edge-setter and K’Lavon Chaisson did not stand out as messing up anything in the run defense. Anfernee Jennings was inactive and not missed.
The pressure will be on the linebackers and safeties for New England to contain De’Von Achane. He may not be stout between the tackles, but he will be trying to get outside and turn the play into an explosive one with his blazing speed. New England’s defense needs to body him up behind the line of scrimmage and keep him from getting up to speed because he’s a threat to reach the end zone anytime he touches the ball.
New England’s defense passed the test in week one, but a different type of running back is on the scene in week two and the Patriots defenders need to build on that success and make Miami one-dimensional so they can dial up pressure and create turnovers.
Other Factors:
The New England Patriots saw rookie sixth-round draft pick kicker Andy Borregales miss a key field goal in his first game with the Patriots. On his first field goal attempt with a chance to give New England the lead, he missed from 40 yards out ending an 11 play drive with no points.
While he came back to hit a pair of field goals, in a close game every point mattered.
The special teams were just okay. Baringer had a terrible punt at the end of the game when Vrabel decided to punt the ball down by ten points near midfield on fourth-and-ten. They shouldn’t have been punting anyway, but Vrabel clearly had more trust in his defense making a play than the offense picking up ten yards.
I thought the New England special teams would have a big play but other than Antonio Gibson having a 41 yard kick return, there were no big plays. They did not give up much in returns, but didn’t generate a turnover that could have swung momentum either.
Game Pick:
Both of these teams struggled mightily on both sides of the ball in week one. I expected New England to be more efficient and balanced on offense but other than a few drives in the second quarter, it was a one-dimensional mess. On defense, the pass defense let them down numerous times.
The Dolphins have a better track record and should play much better in week two. Their defense was a top-ten unit in the second half of the season last year and should bounce back, even with their dreadful secondary. They have the ability to disrupt New England’s offense with their strong pass rush up front and solid linebackers.
While I doubt Tua Tagovailoa will ever be an elite quarterback (imagine, they could have drafted Justin Herbert as their quarterback with the fifth overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft instead), but with Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill, he has enough firepower to be explosive if the offensive line protects him. Also, the Dolphins should run the ball more this week and get a few explosive plays.
It should be a close game, but I don’t have confidence right now in New England being ready to pull out a win on the road against a division opponent.
Comments