At long last, the NFL is back!
Both teams brought in culture-changing head coaches with a track record of success in the NFL. Old friend Pete “Pumped and Jacked” Carroll returns to Foxboro, this time with a Raiders team that is betting on his energy and defensive prowess to lift them up in 2025.
Carroll has longtime New England defensive coach Patrick Graham as his defensive coordinator and veteran Joe Woods (seven years experience in the NFL as defensive coordinator) as defensive passing game coordinator. On offense, the dynamic offensive mind of Chip Kelly leads the offense. Kelly was a head coach in Philadelphia and San Francisco and most recently was offensive coordinator at Ohio State last season after six years as head coach of UCLA.
The Patriots are looking to bounce back on defense after a disappointing performance in 2024 and Vrabel has loaded up on new players while clearing out the Belichick/Mayo guys. Veteran leaders Davon Godchaux, Jonathan Jones, Daniel Ekuale, Jabrill Peppers, Deatrich Wise Jr., and Ja’Whaun Bentley were shown the door in the offseason. Former starters Anfernee Jennings, Jahlani Tavai, Keion White and Kyle Dugger have all been reduced to back-ups and their time in New England could be limited.
Last Week:
The New England Patriots’ preseason was a roller coaster. There were some strong joint practices against the Commanders and Vikings, but also sometimes they looked completely outclassed. Some practices were a struggle on both sides of the ball, while other times they found a groove and looked competent.
That carried over into the preseason games as their starters were inconsistent but the backups shined versus Washington. They held their own as Minnesota played mostly backups as well. In the final game, the lack of depth was exposed as the backups got blown up by the Giants’ backups in week three of the preseason.
The only silver lining of the Giants blowout loss was Tommy DeVito won a job in New England as the third quarterback after shredding them.
With all the turnover on the offensive line with four new starters, a new number one receiver, and a rookie running back playing a key role, there was bound to be inconsistencies with a young quarterback learning a new offensive system. On defense, the Patriots turned over most of the unit and Vrabel clearly used the preseason to weed out past players and figure out who fit his defense.
This was a work in progress on both sides of the ball the entire preseason. Add in a new rookie long snapper and rookie kicker, plus a slew of new bodies performing on special teams, and that unit joined the offense and defense as up-and-down all preseason.
The preseason seems to be a precursor for the regular season: the Patriots will have some great performances and some real dogs, but should be somewhere in the six to nine win range and show some improvement over the last few years of decline and apathy.
How to Watch/Listen to the Game:
There is no blackout for the Patriots games anymore like there were in my childhood in the 1980s. This week’s game will be broadcast by CBS and can be seen locally in the greater Boston area on WBZ-TV Channel 4 and in the greater Providence area on WPRI-TV Channel 12.
As is the usual tradition, commercial breaks are the time to jump to NFL Redzone and catch up on the rest of the 1PM games to catch-up on players on fantasy rosters and see how my parlays are getting busted.
On CBS, Spero Dedes will handle play-by-play duties with Adam Archuleta as the color analyst. Aditi Kinkhabwala will provide analysis from the Sidelines. This is hardly the “A Team” or even “B” or “C” Team for CBS. With two teams who both finished 4-13 last season, this is hardly a marquee game.
On the radio, this week’s game will be broadcast to a national audience by Sports USA. Larry Kahn will call the game with Marvin Lewis providing analysis. On local radio, 98.5 The Sports Hub remains the flagship station for the Patriots Radio Network with 33 stations around New England and one station (WHTK 1280 AM) in Rochester, NY.
As usual, we are blessed to have an excellent combination carrying on the tradition of Gil and Geno who worked together from 1972 to 1978 and from 1991 to 2011. Play-by-play broadcaster Bob Socci will call the action along with former Patriots quarterback and Sports Hub personality Scott Zolak, who will provide color analysis.
Key Stats:
Second-round draft pick TreVeyon Henderson was the star of the preseason. He averaged 7.6 yards per rush in the preseason and a few receptions, but seeing HOW he ran the ball between the tackles was eye-opening.
He was running wheel routes out of the backfield, long a staple of the Josh McDaniels offense with Kevin Faulk, Shane Vereen, Danny Woodhead and James White in the past. Of course, his kickoff return of 100 yards to start the preseason set the tone and announced himself as a big play waiting to happen anytime he touches the ball.
Undrafted free agent receiver Efton Chism led the offense with a dozen receptions for 121 yards and two touchdowns. He earned a role on the 53-man roster, although he is not expected to see much playing time during the regular season unless there is an injury.
On defense, the secondary looked to get a boost of young talent as fourth-round pick Craig Woodson looked like a perfect back-end protector and occasional slot cornerback as he earned a starting role. Cornerbacks Alex Austin and DJ James took advantage of injuries to starters Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis to step up and an interception each in the preseason. More importantly, they showed that they can add much needed quality depth to the cornerback position.
NE Offense vs LV Defense:
The Raiders, like the Patriots last season, were terrible on defense. Like in New England, Las Vegas made a number of changes to the defense. For all the attention that Pete Carroll’s teams have had on the offense, his calling card has always been defense. A number of moves were made--especially in the secondary, but I’m not sure they’re much better.
Pass Offense:
What the Raiders have that the Patriots don’t on defense is a premier pass rusher. Maxx Crosby is one of the best in the NFL and will give first-round draft pick Will Campbell one heck of a “Welcome to the NFL”. Opposite Crosby, the Raiders will have 2023 first round pick Tyree Wilson and Malcolm Koonce, who missed all of the 2024 season with a torn ACL.
The Raiders threw a hissy fit and recklessly released Christian Wilkins, an All-Pro caliber defensive tackle, because they didn’t agree on treatment methods on his recovery from injury. This leaves them with former Patriot Adam Butler and Thomas Booker inside, which is a break for the Patriots and rookie left guard Jared Wilson.
With Wilson a rookie and Garrett Bradbury having issues with bigger interior pass rushers, no Wilkins is a win for New England. With Drake Maye really only worrying about Crosby, the Patriots should be able to use the running backs and tight ends to help out Campbell and give Maye time to attack the Las Vegas secondary.
The Patriots did the right thing at wide receiver, despite limited options via trade and free agency. Stefon Diggs was the only number one wide receiver available because of injury. Mack Hollins is a solid outside receiver who can attack the middle-range and work the sidelines. He has played for and had his best career season with Josh McDaniels.
Behind that duo, keeping Kayshon Boutte and DeMario Douglas--two young and productive receivers who gained Maye’s confidence last season, rounds out the four receivers expected to play the most. In reserve, third-round draft pick Kyle Williams and undrafted free agent Efton Chism gives dynamic--if unproven--depth at the position to develop.
Tight ends Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper return and give Maye third down and red zone targets. But the biggest addition to the passing game could be TreVeyon Henderson out of the backfield. Already a solid blocker, his hands and knowledge of route running gives New England a big play weapon to add to the offense in the passing, rushing and even returns.
Las Vegas overhauled their secondary in the offseason, but whether they got any better is up for debate. Former Patriots cornerback Jack Jones wore out his welcome in Las Vegas just as he had done in New England. Excellent slot cornerback Nate Hobbs left in free agency and Jakorian Bennett--who was effective but undersized--was not welcomed back.
Pete Carroll is well-known for developing his cornerbacks at every stop of his career, but this group could test his patience. Eric Stokes had a great rookie season in Green Bay, but his last three seasons were marred by injuries. Las Vegas shouldn’t expect him to last the season. Kyu Blu Kelly is on his fourth team since coming into the NFL in 2023, but Carroll is high on him.
If Stefon Diggs is healthy, he should eat up Stokes or Kelly. The issue is, will Diggs be close enough to 100% to take advantage of a favorable matchup in week one.
Rookie Darien Porter is an athletic project taken in round three but needs a redshirt season. Darnay Holmes did nothing in four years for the Giants and not much last year as nickel corner for the Raiders but he returns as their only option. Look for Pop Douglas to test Holmes early and often.
Run Offense:
While Rhamondre Stevenson technically is the number one back, this is very quickly going to evolve into the TreVeyon Henderson show (provided he remains healthy). Stevenson is solid, if somewhat plodding, and the mess of an offensive line blocking in front of him in 2024 contributed to many of his rushing attempts where getting back to the line of scrimmage was a victory.
Henderson is the future star, and should get plenty of action, especially on third down. Don’t sleep on Antonio Gibson as a change of pace back. Gibson showed he still has some juice and is capable of running within the tackles, in space, and in the return game.
Finally, Maye was one of the most effective running quarterbacks as a rookie in 2024. He rushed for 421 yards (sometimes forced to run for his life, other times no receiver could work open) and averaged a ridiculous 7.8 yards per attempt. While Josh McDaniels will try to limit his running, it is a strength and hopefully McDaniels revisits some of the designed runs for Cam Newton from 2020.
The Raiders defensive reformation including losing their best interior pass rusher and run defender in Christian Wilkins. The additions at the position are…underwhelming. Leki Fotu was brought in to replace John Jenkins but never got the field in the preseason and is a bit of an unknown. Rookies Tonka Hemingway and JJ Pegues looked good at penetrating and pushing the pocket, but both rookies are raw in stopping the run.
Linebacker was the one position they were set at in 2024, so of course the Raiders blew up the position. The Patriots happily snapped up Robert Spillane who has stepped in as a leader on the defense. In addition, fellow starter Divine Diablo was allowed to leave in free agency.
The Raiders brought in old friend Elandon Roberts, who led the Patriots in overrunning plays and being out of position in every season he was at Foxboro. Germaine Pratt looked old and was a liability in Cincinnati, so of course he is a starter in Las Vegas. Finally, Pete Carroll doubled down on one of his worst decisions, bringing in Jamal Adams and moving him to linebacker.
Pete Carroll also brought in Devin White, who was a first round draft pick in Tampa Bay but never lived up to his potential. He landed in Houston last year and only played 176 snaps across seven games. He struggles against the run, in pass coverage, tackling…I guess he’s okay at blitzing. But he is not going to step in and fix this defense.
The Patriots running game should be in full swing. Rookies Will Campbell and Jared Wilson are already above-average run blockers, and free agent center Garrett Bradbury is better blocking in the run game. New England wants to pound the ball, and this Raiders defense should be ripe for exploiting on the ground.
LV Offense vs NE Defense
As much as New England overhauled their defense this offseason, the Raiders revamped their offense. First off, the Raiders added a quarterback very familiar to Pete Carroll in Geno Smith. He has Chip Kelly coordinating the offense, giving Geno a plan to build on his strengths.
The biggest piece was arguably first round draft pick running back Ashton Jeanty. Jeanty is the real deal and should be a shoo-in to be a top five running back very soon. Speaking of the real deal, so is last year’s first round pick, tight end Brock Bowers. Bowers had 112 receptions and 1,194 yards receiving as a rookie last year. Geno now has two young studs to get the ball to and see big plays happen.
The question marks are raised in the wide receiver room. Former Patriots receiver Jakobi Meyers is playing, but is unhappy with his contract. Tre Tucker is an undersized slot receiver and the rest of the receivers are rookies with mid round picks Dont’e Thornton and Jack Bech.
Pass Defense:
The Patriots will likely be without stud cornerback Christian Gonzalez. Fortunately, with Carlton Davis available to cover Meyers and someone from Marcus Jones, Alex Austin or DJ James should be able to handle Tucker and Thornton. The Raiders are going to attack them with tight ends, as behind Bowers is the very capable Michael Mayer, a second round pick in 2023.
This puts the pressure on the safeties and linebackers. The safety room has been the big story in New England with Jabrill Peppers surprisingly released and former Raider Marcus Epps requesting his release. Rookie fourth-round pick Craig Woodson and Jaylin Hawkins will have their work cut out for them with Bowers and Mayer likely being their primary responsibility.
Also, the inside linebackers will be expected to provide pass coverage of the tight ends and running backs. Robert Spillane, who led the Raiders in tackles last season, will be amped up to take on his former squad. While Christian Ellis is the other starter, New England will probably play Marte Mapu more due to his athleticism and pass coverage ability.
The biggest impact will have to come from the pass rush. Unlike most teams, this pass rush comes from the inside. With free agent acquisition Milton Williams and a healthy Christian Barmore, the Patriots will be attacking the interior of the Las Vegas offensive line.
Both starting edge rushers from 2024 are reserves to start 2025. Keion White was beat out by K’Lavon Chaisson and former Tennessee Titan and Boston College Eagle Harold Landry joined the Patriots in free agency and leapfrogged Anfernee Jennings on the depth chart on day one. Both Landry and Chaisson have a lot to prove, but both bouncing back in New England in 2025 could be huge for the defense.
The Raiders are set on the left side with tackle Kolton Miller and Dylan Parnham at left guard. Jordan Meredith is the surprise starter at center considering he never played the position in his first three seasons.
The right side is where the questions arise with second year players Jackson Powers-Johnson at right guard and right tackle DJ Glaze. The Raiders signed veteran Alex Cappa to play guard with the idea Powers-Johnson would be the center. Instead Cappa is being paid $11 million to sit on the bench.
The Raiders surprisingly released veteran Thayer Munford, who can play at guard and tackle, and he was scooped up and is on the Patriots practice squad now. There are a couple of rookies and swing tackle Stone Forsythe in reserve along with Cappa, so an injury on the offensive line would be disastrous for Las Vegas.
Run Defense:
Ah, here’s where things get interesting for the Patriots defense in 2025. Last year, especially the last quarter of the season, the New England defense had absolutely no answers to stop the run. Once the calendar hit December, the Patriots allowed 144 (Colts), 163 (Cardinals), 172 (Bills), 147 (Chargers) and 130 (Bills) yards on the ground, winning only the last game of the season versus Buffalo’s backups.
New England overhauled the defensive front with nose tackle Khyris Tonga the centerpiece of the line. While so much ink was spilled this offseason on Milton Williams and the other defensive linemen, Tonga’s signing was completely under the radar and he stayed in the background seemingly all of camp. Tonga, an offseason workout award winner, let his play on the field talk for him as during his limited playing time in the preseason with the starting defense, he provided the defense almost 340 lbs of stout Samoan sturdiness in the middle of the defensive line. While Williams and Christian Barmore penetrate and push the pocket and disrupt the run in the backfield, Tonga is expected to be occupying the interior linemen to allow linebacker Robert Spillane and the linebackers to run to the ball carrier.
Facing former Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty is a heck of a test. The Raiders offensive line has blocked well for Jeanty in the limited preseason tape, actually looking better against the run than the pass (other than Kolton Miller, as the veteran tackle looked excellent pass and run blocking as usual). The younger blockers for Las Vegas are strong and powerful and Jeanty will be expected to carry the load on offense
For New England, behind Tonga they also brought in defensive tackle Eric Gregory from Cincinnati to join rookie Joshua Farmer as back up power in the middle. Edge rushers Harold Landry (a proven edge-setter in Tennessee) and K’Lavon Chaisson (unproven at setting the edge) will have to be key contributors in stopping the run. Anfernee Jennings will likely play more if Jeanty is running through Chaisson’s edge.
Sure tackling is important as Jeanty showed at Boise State and in the preseason that an arm tackle isn’t going to bring him down, and once he gets up to speed, he can run right over smaller defensive backs as he did against the 49ers’ Deommodore Lenoir in their preseason game.
The pressure will be on the linebackers for New England to contain Jeanty. Robert Spillane is a solid run-stuffer and surprise starter Christian Elliss is solid, but neither are big thumpers like New England fans may have grown used to with the Dont’a Hightower/Ja’Whaun Bentley/Jahlani Tavai combos at the position in the recent past.
Mike Vrabel prefers smaller, quicker linebackers to sprint to the ball and help out in pass coverage over the big bruisers. Ellis and Spillane (along with backup Marte Mapu) are around 225/230 lbs. Those guys would be strong safeties in the Bill Belichick defense. Only Jack Gibbens, at 240 lbs. and Tavai (on injured reserve) have the thumping run-stuffing size at linebacker.
WIth multiple tight end sets expected from Las Vegas, a shiny new toy at running back, and the mad genius run designs of Chip Kelly, all eyes will be on the New England defense to see if they can stop the run in week one.
Other Factors:
The New England Patriots overhauled their entire kicking operation, bringing back only punter/holder Bryce Baringer. Rookie seventh-round pick Julian Ashby steps in at long snapper replacing Joe Cardona, the Navy long snapper who held the job for the last decade. Ashby delivered some wobbly snaps in the preseason, so he bears watching early in the season.
At kicker, rookie sixth-round draft pick Andy Borregales emerged from preseason with the kicking job after a spirited battle with journeyman John Parker Romo. Note that I didn’t indicate that he won the kicking battle. I think Parker Romo was slightly ahead of the rookie, but special teams apparently didn’t have the same “anyone can win the job and it’s an open competition” rules like the offense and defense.
Parker Romo remains unsigned at the time of writing and that’s a damn shame because he was consistent and accurate throughout camp and the preseason. He deserves a job kicking in the NFL and will likely get another shot during the season to latch on somewhere.
Vrabel didn’t even bring in competition at long snapper and punter, and clearly his sixth-round draft pick kicker was going to win the job unless he was injured or completely broke down in camp.
The special teams looked improved on the punt and kick coverage units under second year special teams coach, Jeremy Springer. Springer was the only coaching carryover from Mayo’s staff, so he needs to have the special teams unit continue to show the growth from last year.
Obviously, the special teams got a boost in preseason game one on the opening kickoff as TreVeyon Henderson took it 100 yards to the end zone with the blockers opening a nice gap on the left side of the field. With Marcus Jones on the punt return unit, the Patriots have the potential for any kick to be a potential big play.
Game Pick:
Two four win teams facing off with completely rebuilt rosters and new head coaches makes for a tough pick. If you wanted to argue that the Raiders offense would be unpredictable enough to put up enough points to pull out the win, I wouldn’t argue too much. This is basically a pick ‘em game, with the home team getting the advantage of not having to travel 2,500 miles.
I think the special teams may have a big play in store for New England that is just enough to turn the tide in this game. Both teams have a lot to prove on both sides of the football. I don’t think the Raiders can come from behind with their limited passing game so tight-end focused.
I think the edge at quarterback for New England with the running and play-extending ability of Drake Maye and his ability to add another big play is enough in week one.
Raiders 20 at Patriots (-3) 24
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