The New England Patriots evened their record at 2-2 last week with a convincing victory against the Carolina Panthers 42-13. After a slow start to the game and down 6-0 (the “boo birds” were out at Foxboro at that point), the defense finally forced Carolina into a third down on their second drive with less than seven minutes remaining in the first quarter.
This week, the 4-0 Buffalo Bills welcome the Patriots to Highmark Stadium for what is likely their last visit there as “the Pit” aka New Highmark Stadium is due to open next season. Fortunately, drunk Bills fans have been restrained from breaking into the new stadium and falling 30-40 feet into a hole dug inside since 2023 when “feeding the pit” became a viral trend.
Since Tom Brady moved on to Tampa and New Era Field was renamed Highmark Stadium (it will always be Ralph Wilson Stadium--or as we always referred to it after a few beers as “Ralph Wiggum Stadium”), it’s been a house of horror for the Patriots.
Of course, there are some weird games mixed in during the rivalry. Cam Newton fumbled away a win in November 2020 snapping a seven game win streak against Buffalo losing the ball inside the 20 when a field goal would tie and touchdown would win the game with less than 40 seconds to play.
In December 2021, rookie Mac Jones and the Patriots won a game in horrific cold and wind 14-10 where Jones attempted just three passes the entire game and Bills head coach Sean McDermott was under fire after the game for being “outcoached” by Bill Belichick. That’s when things seemed to turn personal for the Bills’ head coach.
Five straight wins (and demolishing the Patriots in the 2021 Wild Card round) as Josh Allen grew into a top-3 quarterback in the NFL (Allen, Mahomes and Jackson…at any time one of those three is the best quarterback) and the only hiccup was the Mac Jones “last gasp” game.
October 2023, the 1-5 Patriots inexplicably defeated Buffalo 29-25 in the last good game Mac Jones played until landing in San Francisco this season. Buffalo was in a weird stretch with Ken Dorsey eventually being fired as offensive coordinator. They moved on to Joe Brady and the offense righted the ship and went back to crushing the AFC East.
Of course, last year was the week 18 “Joe Milton game”. The less said about that catastrophic failure of a game the better, as the Patriots’ backups beat the Buffalo backups, costing the Patriots the first overall pick in the draft (imagine Travis Hunter at wide receiver and cornerback on this team).
Last Week:
The New England Patriots’ week four game against Carolina was a performance not seen in these parts since the 2021 season. On 1/2/2022 in a week 17 matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars, rookie quarterback Mac Jones led the way to a 50-10 win. Since that game, there truly has not been a blowout win for New England until last week.
Needing to get the bad taste of five turnovers costing them a win against an overrated Steelers team, the Patriots bounced back with a strong game on offense, defense (after a rough start again), and special teams. It was domination across the board and yet another great game from quarterback Drake Maye.
I know the Drake Maye haters are out there, but they’ve become very quiet in 2025 as the Patriots’ much maligned (locally, and probably in Las Vegas, Denver and Indianapolis as well) offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels has taken Maye’s game to another level.
Maye was efficient and accurate, completing 14 of 17 passes for 203 yards and a pair of touchdowns (all statistics from Pro-Football-Reference unless otherwise noted). He had no turnovers, was only sacked once, and had a near perfect 155.6 quarterback rating. He also added a touchdown rushing.
Most encouraging for New England was getting Stefon Diggs back to looking like a number one receiver. Diggs was dominant with six receptions on seven targets for 101 yards. While Hunter Henry is the red zone and security blanket for Maye, he needs a wide receiver he can trust to get open and Diggs looked like that last week.
How to Watch/Listen to the Game:
This week’s game will be featured on Sunday Night Football to a national audience in prime time for the first time for New England. The game will be broadcast by NBC and can be seen in the Boston area on NBC 10 Boston and in the Providence area on NBC 10 WJAR (Growing up halfway between Boston and Providence, I can hear my Dad in my head yelling, “Just put the &#^@ing tv on &#^@ing channel ten already!” while I try to move the antenna to the perfect position between Boston and Providence channels to try to get the picture perfect).
For the highest rated television show in the nation each week, Mike Tirico handles the play-by-play duties with Cris Collinsworth as the color analyst. Melissa Stark works from the sidelines.
Sunday Night’s game will also be broadcast to a national audience on Westwood One. Ryan Radtke will call the game with Mike Golic providing analysis. Of course, this week’s game will also be on local radio on 98.5 The Sports Hub in Boston and broadcast on the Patriots Radio Network with 33 stations around New England and one station (WHTK 1280 AM) in Rochester, NY.
Let me add, I was in New York City last week for the game, and the 98.5 Sports Hub app on my phone cut out to a national feed instead of broadcasting the game. Fortunately, Hell’s Kitchen’s finest bar, Scruffy Duffy’s, had the Patriots game on a side television as I sat at the bar eating chicken wings and drinking Guinness surrounded by truly miserable Jets fans (except for when one Jets fan won free shots for everyone in the place).
On the radio, and not the app, play-by-play broadcaster Bob Socci will call the action along with former Patriots quarterback and Sports Hub personality Scott Zolak providing his usual “unique” brand of analysis.
Key Stats:
New England’s offense, so terrible in the past three seasons, is tenth in points scored and 14th in total yards after four weeks. While hardly elite, after being so bad for so long, adequacy is a huge improvement.
New England is seventh overall in total passing yards and ninth in passing touchdowns entering week five. Surprisingly, a team with three competent running backs and a mobile quarterback have struggled to run the football. New England is 25th in rushing yards after four weeks with just 405 yards on the ground and a 3.9 yards per rush average.
On defense, a unit that was perennially a top unit under Bill Belichick, regressed last season into one of the worst units in the league under Jerod Mayo and caused the need for head coach Mike Vrabel to overhaul the unit. Through four games, the defense is tenth in points allowed and 16th in total yards.
The run defense has been a huge upgrade with Milton Williams and Christian Barmore making plays with the penetrating, aggressive defensive philosophy. The Patriots have allowed the second fewest rushing yards through four weeks (310 yards) and opponents have averaged a miniscule 3.3 yards per rush.
With the return to health of Christian Gonzalez, the sometimes leaky pass defense (26th in passing yards allowed) should improve as he gets back up to speed. Big plays in the passing game have been the problem for New England. As NFL.com’s Marcus Grant detailed, only the Washington Commanders and Pittsburgh Steelers have allowed more explosive pass plays in the first four weeks.
Buffalo is 4-0 and a juggernaut on offense, averaging 33.3 points per game through four weeks behind the number one rushing attack in the NFL. The BIlls are first in attempts, yards and touchdowns on the ground and seventh in yards per attempt at 4.9.
Of course, the passing offense is no slouch either, as Josh Allen and company are sixth in passing yards despite being 19th in pass attempts. Their only turnover on offense through four weeks has been Allen’s interception last week by Jonas Sanker when his sideline deep shot on third and ten deep in his own territory just was a little too far for wide receiver Keion Coleman and was basically netted out as a 40-yard punt.
Defense is where the Bills have had hiccups, especially last week letting the Spencer Rattler led New Orleans Saints hang around within a score most of the game. Buffalo allowed 40 points to Baltimore in week one, but did shut down the Jets and Dolphins before this hiccup against the Saints.
Buffalo has allowed the least passing yards through four games, but has struggled mightily to stop the run. A big part of that is injuries, as defensive tackle Ed Oliver and linebacker Matt Milano have missed time with injuries so far.
Buffalo’s defense has also struggled on third downs, allowing teams to convert 21 of 50 (42%) so far through four games. That’s 25th in the league. In the Red Zone, they’ve allowed teams to score touchdowns on seven of 11 trips,
NE Offense vs BUF Defense:
The Patriots are catching the Bills defense right when they are getting healthy. Ed Oliver and Matt Milano are potentially returning to action this week. New edge rusher Joey Bosa has been healthy so far and picking up the slack for a unit that desperately needs Oliver and Milano back on the field.
Buffalo is shallow up front after both impact players signed in the offseason, defensive end Michael Hoecht and defensive tackle Larry Ogunjobi, tested positive for PEDs after signing with the Bills and are currently suspended until Week 9. Both would be playing key roles right now, and the Patriots are lucky to miss them both this week.
New England is riding high on offense in 2025, with Drake Maye making quick decisions and improved accuracy in the pocket. He still is dangerous when he tucks the ball and runs. One nitpick is that they don’t take advantage of his dual-threat nature enough near the goal line and in short yardage where rolling him out of the pocket with a run option could open up some opportunities.
Despite that, the Patriots have excelled in the Red Zone and on third down, areas they struggled mightily in the four previous seasons. Entering week five they are tenth in third down conversion percentage (41.7%) and eighth in Red Zone with 10 of 15 trips resulting in touchdowns.
Those numbers need to be strong on Sunday night with a tough test against the 4-0 Bills.
Pass Offense:
Joey Bosa, at 32 years old and with multiple injuries in his past has carried the Buffalo pass rush through four weeks. Greg Rousseau, signed to a four-year $80 million extension heading into his fifth-year option season, has been terrible through four games. Last week, he had no sacks, no pressures, and no quarterback hits. He struggled setting the edge in the running game.
With Oliver out, 34 year old DaQuan Jones has stepped up and is tied for the lead for sacks with Bosa with two through four weeks. The Patriots getting impressive rookie Jared Wilson back this week should help as the duo of Jones and Oliver is going to be a challenge for the interior offensive line this week.
Tackles Morgan Moses and rookie Will Campbell have continued to improve as the season progresses in pass protection. Giving Drake Maye time to operate in the pocket has been a key to his success so far in 2025.
The Patriots continued to have success in the short passing game last week. Maye continues to spread the ball around on offense, with Stefon Diggs and Hunter Henry looking like his primary targets. Free agent acquisition Mack Hollins and Kayshon Boutte haven’t produced eye-popping stats, but Hollins has two touchdowns and Boutte had a 100-yard receiving game in week one.
DeMario Douglas has completely disappeared from the offense. Clearly, Diggs in the slot looks like the best look for the offense, but with multiple tight-end sets, multiple running back sets, the snaps for Douglas are taking a hit. Just five receptions for 13 yards through four games is inconceivable considering he had 66 catches for 621 yards last year and was expected to thrive as the slot receiver in Josh McDaniels’ offense,
The Bills’ pass defense has been the surprise so far in 2025. While young cornerback Christian Benford is quietly a top-ten cornerback already, veteran Tre’Davious White has played better than expected in his return to Buffalo while first round draft pick and expected starter Maxwell Hairston has been on injured reserve. Slot cornerback Taron Johnson has been productive as well.
However, the play by the safeties has been the biggest game changer. After years of having Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer having huge responsibilities and thriving on defense, the safety play fell off considerably. This season, former Ram Taylor Rapp and second-year Cole Bishop have both appeared much more comfortable and are starting to make plays in the secondary, contributing to the strong pass defense so far.
New England needs all three of the running backs to continue to shine in the passing game. Attacking Buffalo’s defense in the passing game in all three levels and horizontally is necessary to get a favorable matchup.
The play-action passing game has been effective so far for New England, so continuing to run the ball (especially against the porous Bills run defense) is a must to keep the game close and open up opportunities down the field in the passing game.
Run Offense:
The Patriots through the first quarter of the season have underachieved in the running game. Rhamondre Stevenson, TreVeyon Henderson and Antonio Gibson looked like a formidable trio and adding in the scrambling and running ability of Drake Maye many expected the unit to carry the offense.
Instead, fumbles and ineffectiveness have limited this group. Much of that has to do with the reconstituted offensive line. Two rookies on the left side, a new veteran center, and a right side of the line that is stronger in pass blocking still needs to gel and be in perfect rhythm to generate holes for the explosive running backs to exploit.
Granted, this is not last season where seemingly every carry had a running back having to break a tackle in the backfield, but the expectations were much higher than scraping together a 101 yards per game average and less than four yards per carry.
The Patriots will face a Buffalo defense that has struggled against the run. Without Ed Oliver and Matt Milano, this unit has struggled with broken tackles by backs and poor gap discipline leading to explosive gains.
Buffalo has mitigated this with great pass defense and forcing turnovers. However, it is alarming to see the defense allowing 238 yards to the Ravens on the ground in week one and 189 yards rushing to the Saints last week. The Bills did mix in a strong performance in week three holding Breece Hall to just 29 yards on 12 rushes and 100 yards total to the Jets (mobile quarterback Justin Fields rushed for 49 of those yards on just five carries).
Big play opportunities should be there for this running back group in New England. Also, designing some run opportunities for Drake Maye makes sense since Fields, Spencer Rattler and Lamar Jackson all made big plays with their legs against Buffalo.
BUF Offense vs NE Defense
This is a fun opportunity for the Patriots fans with a nationally televised Sunday night game and the reigning MVP at the helm of the Buffalo Bills. Watching the Bills’ offense should bring back memories of the Tom Brady offenses: no-name receivers converting first downs, running backs powering into the end zone inside the red zone, points scored early and often.
Offensive coordinator Joe Brady has been fantastic in Buffalo after a rough go in Carolina in 2020 and 2021 with five different quarterbacks starting over two seasons with overmatched head coach Matt Rhule. Brady came into the NFL with Sean Peyton’s Saints as an offensive assistant and was the next big thing after his 2019 season as Wide Receivers coach and Passing Game Coordinator for national champs LSU.
That LSU team was stacked and Brady’s passing unit had Joe Burrow at quarterback and Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, Terrace Marshall, and Trey Palmer in the wide receiver room. That offense was held below 36 points just once all season.
He landed in Buffalo after being let go in Carolina and served as passing game coordinator and quarterbacks coach. When the Bills fired offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey in 2023, Brady stepped in and instantly turned around the offense. That team lost in the playoffs against Kansas City when Tyler Bass missed a 44-yard game tying field goal with 1:47 to play (Let’s be real, Patrick Mahomes would have led Kansas City on a game winning drive anyway with that much time left to play).
For the Patriots, this run-centric, first down machine, dominant mobile quarterback offense could be a nightmare on Sunday night.
Pass Defense:
The Patriots finally got starting cornerback Christian Gonzalez back, although he looked rusty at times, he instantly improved the pass defense just by his presence. Being able to have Carlton Davis cover the number two receiver immediately paid dividends as Davis did not allow a completion despite being targeted four times against Carolina.
He will be needed as the Bills boast a strong core of diverse wide receivers. Although no #1 alpha receiver, like the old Patriots wide receiver room, every player knows his role. Keon Coleman is the speedy and tall big-play young outside receiver, Khalil Shakir is the small and quick slot receiver seemingly always working open, Josh Palmer is another deep threat outside the numbers speedster and Elijah Moore has taken the role of “gadget guy” from the declining Curtis Samuel.
Where the Bills really shine in the passing game is their tight ends. Dalton Kincaid has great hands, works the seams well and is quickly becoming Allen’s go-to safety valve/third-down and red zone target. Dawson Knox lacks explosiveness but is that crafty veteran able to work his way into holes in zone coverage.
Rookie Jackson Hawes is the secret weapon in Buffalo. Hawes came into the league as one of the best blocking tight ends already in both the passing and rushing game, but he’s starting to show that he’s more than just a blocker adding a nice reception every week. Joe Buscaglia of the Athletic (subscription required) recently broke down his usage in one and three tight end sets and it was eye-opening to see how he’s already earned the trust of offensive coordinator Joe Brady and Josh Allen.
For New England, getting the pass rush going is going to be key. However, the Bills--like most top offenses--have an excellent offensive line. Right tackle Spencer Brown has had a calf injury slowing him, but is expected back on Sunday night. He is a mauler in the run game and has long arms and a solid base to hold up well in pass protection.
On the left side, Dion Dawkins has consistently been excellent as the four time Pro Bowler stepped into the starting lineup in 2017 in head coach Sean McDermott’s first season and has been incredibly reliable.
The interior is anchored by guard O’Cyrus Torrence, a steal at 59th overall in the 2023 NFL Draft. Torrence was projected as a first rounder and the massive guard has been a beast in the run game and in pass protection. Veterans Connor McGovern (via the Cowboys) in the middle and David Edwards (via the Rams) fill out the strong interior blocking unit.
The New England pass rush has been inconsistent in 2025 so far. The Patriots are middle of the pack with blitz rates, and with Milton Wiliams and Christian Barmore wrecking opposing offensive lines, the push has been coming up the gut. Barmore is healthy and on a mission and teamed up with big money free agent Williams, this duo is driving the defense right now.
Taking advantage of that pocket push has been Harold Landry and K’Lavon Chaisson on the outside as the duo have combined for six sacks in the first four games. That pass rush from the front four has New England ranked 10th in team pass rush win rate (per ESPN)
Pass rush and tight coverage is a must with Josh Allen at quarterback. This week is a huge test for the New England pass defense.
Run Defense:
The New England run defense gave up over 100 yards rushing last week for the first time in 2025 in their 42-13 blowout victory over Carolina. Underrated nose tackle Khyris Tonga remains an impactful fit in the middle of the defense anchoring the run defense. This week, though, is a real challenge.
Buffalo is number one across the board running the ball in 2025 and James Cook has been the bell cow. Cook is averaging 100.3 yards per game in 2025 and leads the NFL with five rushing touchdowns.
Josh Allen also adds the rushing element to the Buffalo offense with his ability to break tackles and great instincts. While he hasn’t run the ball as often in earlier seasons, his size and strength make him such a weapon with the ball in his hands anywhere near the goal line.
For the Patriots, Milton Williams and Christian Barmore have continued attacking up the field and penetrating to blow up running plays. Inside linebacker Christian Elliss has struggled and has been losing snaps to veteran Jack Gibbens. Gibbens and Robert Spillane were everywhere on the field last week combining for 22 tackles.
Spillane had terrible struggles finishing tackles in space earlier in the season but seems to have straightened that out in the past two games. Jaylinn Hawkins is a missile in the running game coming up from the safety position and both Davis and Gonzalez are willing tacklers at the cornerback position.
While Carolina may have topped 100 yards rushing last week, much of it came on a couple of carries by back-ups Rico Dowdle and Trevor Etienne in garbage time against the back-ups. However, the strong running game of Buffalo will be a handful on Sunday night.
Other Factors:
New England Patriots rookie sixth-round draft pick kicker Andy Borregales missed a key field goal in his first game with the Patriots and then missed two extra points in the first quarter in week two. In the past two weeks, the Patriots haven’t attempted a field goal but he is eight for eight on extra points and his kickoffs have improved.
Punter Bryce Baringer has had his workload reduced in 2025 with just 13 punts through four weeks after launching 168 combined punts in his first two seasons.
Last week saw the return game stand out with yet another amazing punt return from Marcus Jones. Jones eschewed a fair catch and took the punt 87 yards changing what was a slow start on both defense and offense. Later, he added a 61 yard punt that he nearly broke getting tripped up at the 14 yard line and setting up another touchdown.
Buffalo brought Chris Tabor as Special Teams Coordinator for the 2025 season trying to improve the unit. Unfortunately for the Bills, all of the special teams units are still a work in progress. With kicker Tyler Bass out injured they’ve had to turn to 41 year old Matt Prater at kicker. Prater still has a strong leg and is 8 of 9 on field goals and perfect on all 13 extra points.
The Bills are onto their third punter of 2025 after punter Cameron Johnson was injured in a collision last week after a Saints rusher roughed him. Their previous punter, Brad Robbins, was released after a rough week one. The Bills signed "the Boomin’ Onion", Australian punter Mitch Wishnowsky this week to handle the punting duties.
The kick and punt returners are also in flux for Buffalo, as Brandon Codrington was replaced by receivers Khalil Shakir and Curtis Samuel to handle punt and kick returns. Codrington was decent as a kick returner but Who will be back to return kicks on Sunday night is unknown at this time.
New England will need a big special teams play to make up for some of the talent imbalance against Buffalo. While Buffalo has been solid defending punt and kick returns, Marcus Jones, TreVeyon Henderson and Antonio Gibson will be a unique test for their coverage units.
Game Pick:
For New England, this is a measuring stick game as they compare themselves to the best team in the AFC. For the Bills, it’s just another game, albeit an AFC East opponent and a prime time game.
The return of Stefon Diggs to Buffalo is a bit of a storyline. With Bill Belichick coaching at Chapel Hill now, all of that subtle and unspoken out loud animosity between New England and Buffalo’s coaches is gone now.
The Patriots, at 2-2, are on the right track in 2025. I don’t think this is a playoff team and the depth on both sides of the ball is very thin due to the recent bad drafts, and they’re into a stretch with straight road games (at Buffalo, at New Orleans, and at Tennessee). There is a very thin line for success in the NFL and as seen in those two losses this season to the Raiders and Steelers, a few mistakes can doom them.
That said, outside of Buffalo, Tampa Bay and Baltimore, most of the games on the schedule still look winnable and this fan base in New England is desperate to return to being a contender. Unfortunately, those expectations need to be tempered.
Last week, after giving up a touchdown on the first drive of the game for the third time in four games this season, and then the Patriots going three-and-out on the opening drive, the boo birds were out at Foxboro. Seriously? That is a high (and unfair) bar to be judging this team.
The development of Drake Maye is all that really matters. What could he do with a few competent wide receivers and an average offensive line? Right now, he looks like a top-10 quarterback in the NFL in 2025 and maybe the pushing Jayden Daniels and C.J. Stroud for the title of best young quarterback in the league.
Of course, he gets a legitimate test this week with Buffalo’s top rated pass defense in a prime time game on the road. I predict and fully expect some struggles by Maye and the offense.
And, hey, Patriots fans: that’s okay! He is still learning. He hasn’t started 17 NFL games yet. He didn’t play 61 games in college like Bo Nix, he’s already had to learn an entirely new offense with a new staff in his second season in the NFL, this is still a work in progress.
So enjoy the Patriots in prime time (there is likely a close to 100% chance that the Monday night game in December versus the Giants gets flexed out for another game) and see how the offense measures up against a strong pass defense and how New England fares on defense against an MVP caliber opponent and the best rushing attack in the NFL.
I don’t think New England wins, but they shouldn’t be overwhelmed and blown out by Buffalo and be able to make the game entertaining and hopefully a learning experience for the younger Patriots to build on. I’ll say the defense makes a couple of plays and maybe a special teams big play can keep them close, but Josh Allen and James Cook are just too much and the Bills win a closer than expected and competitive game.
Patriots 21 at Bills 28 (-8.5)
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