The New England Patriots’ Nation has been walking on sunshine all week after the biggest win since 2019. Despite struggling to get their running game in gear yet again, Drake Maye continued their ascension back to relevance with his fourth straight strong game (after a clunker versus the Raiders in week one--which feels like a million years ago now.)
The Patriots suddenly are just a game back of Buffalo and would be a Wild Card team (ahead of the 2-3 Kansas City Chiefs) if the season ended now.
With high expectations now, the Patriots face a critical four game stretch where it will be vital to stockpile victories against other rebuilding franchises. In their next four games, the Patriots will be travelling to the Big Easy to face the 1-4 New Orleans Saints and then staying in the south with a homecoming game for head coach Mike Vrabel against the 1-4 Tennessee Titans.
After those two road games, the Patriots come home to Gillette Stadium to host the 1-4 Cleveland Browns and the inconsistent 2-2 Atlanta Falcons. After beating Buffalo, the Patriots should be favored in all four games and at least a 3-1 record is vital for their playoff chances in 2025.
Last Week:
The New England Patriots won a huge game on Sunday Night Football last week against the Buffalo Bills to improve to 3-2 on the season. While the win moves New England within one game of Buffalo and gives them a 2-0 record in the division, what it really did was herald to the Nation that the Patriots are no longer a 4-13 mess and may be in the playoff picture in 2025.
While New England won by just three points, it was how they won the game that was so impressive. Buffalo had the top pass defense (yards allowed) in the NFL through four games and many expected New England would “ground and pound”
Despite a slow start on offense and yet another lost fumble for Rhamondre Stevenson, the Patriots bounced back and went into halftime with a 6-3 lead with a strong defensive performance forcing two fumbles.
After halftime, the Bills came out and drove down the field for a touchdown to take the lead and many viewers expected the Bills to ride roughshod over the Patriots.
Instead, Drake Maye drove the offense down the field on back to back drives sandwiched between a Marcus Jones red zone interception of Bills’ quarterback Josh Allen. The defense made a big stop to force Buffalo to kick a field goal to tie the game with less than four minutes to play.
Maye continued his strong play with a huge late game drive to run the clock down to 15 seconds and put the team in position for a field goal. Much-maligned rookie kicker Andres Borregales booted the 52-yard field goal for the win.
Buffalo committed 11 penalties for 90 yards and turned the ball over three times. Running back James Cook was limited to just 49 yards rushing on 15 attempts, and New England kept him out of the end zone. Buffalo leaned on tight end Dalton Kincaid who led the Bills with 108 receiving yards on six catches.
Maye threw for 273 yards and while he didn’t throw any touchdown passes, his chemistry with Stefon Diggs (ten receptions for 146 yards) was a key component for keeping the New England offense rolling in the second half. Stevenson, despite the fumble and averaging just 2.0 yards per rush, did have two rushing touchdowns.
How to Watch/Listen to the Game:
After the joy of having a top announcing duo with Mike Tirico and Cris Collinsworth on Sunday Night Football last week, the Patriots This week’s game will be broadcast by CBS and can be seen locally on WBZ-TV Channel 4 in the greater Boston area and WPRI Channel 12 in the greater Providence area. Spero Dedes will handle play-by-play duties with Adam Archuleta as the color analyst. Aditi Kinkhabwala will provide analysis from the sidelines..
Sunday’s game will be broadcast locally on the radio, but not the app, by Bigelow Tea hawking play-by-play broadcaster Bob Socci calling the action along with former Patriots quarterback and Sports Hub personality Scott Zolak providing his usual energy while delivering analysis.
Key Stats:
New England’s offense dropped to 12th in the league in points scored and 16th in total yards after a tough match-up against the Bills (all stats from Pro-Football-Reference.com, unless otherwise noted). While hardly elite, after being so bad for so long, hanging around in the middle of the pack is a big accomplishment.
New England is seventh overall in total passing yards and seventh in Net Yards per Attempt after five weeks. However, their struggles trying to run the football continue. New England is 26th in rushing yards after five weeks with just 476 yards on the ground and a 3.7 yards per rush average.
On defense, a unit that was facing the top rushing attack did not back down. Although Josh Allen made a few plays with his legs, James Cook had a quiet game. Through five games, the defense is ninth in points allowed and 18th in total yards. The Patriots have allowed the fourth fewest rushing yards through five weeks (428 yards) and opponents have averaged just 3.5 yards per rush.
What hasn’t been brought up enough from Sunday night is the New England pass defense which came into the game ranking 26th in passing yards allowed just 251 yards passing to Josh Allen and cut down on big plays as the longest completion was just 23 yards. The health of Christian Gonzalez was a huge lift, and New England needs to keep him and Carlton Davis healthy in 2025 for the defense to be at its best.
The Saints turned over the coaching staff at last this offseason but have struggled so far in 2025. They won last week against the Giants, which looks more impressive after the G-Men knocked off the World Champion Eagles convincingly on Thursday night.
The Saints are 28th in points scored and 24th in points allowed, or basically the 2024 Patriots. But the Saints have some strengths, as they are just ninth in passing yards allowed and 14th in rushing yards. They are 22nd on third down (26 of 68) and 29th in the Red Zone (seven touchdowns in 17 visits inside the 20).
The cynic in me would say that’s because when you include blowouts against the Bills and Seahawks into the equation, those teams are running the ball with leads and don’t care if you run the ball. However, head coach Kellen Moore has kept them competitive as the Bills game was a two point game in the fourth quarter before Buffalo woke up.
The Saints ran the ball well in their other two close losses. New Orleans has been good at limiting turnovers (Just three in five games) and forced five turnovers against the Giants last week.
NE Offense vs NO Defense:
The Patriots are catching the Saints with both teams’ confidence high. New England has to be concerned with a drop-off this week after winning an emotional primetime game against the best team in the AFC.
New England is riding high on offense in 2025, with Drake Maye making quick decisions and improved accuracy in the pocket. He remains dangerous when he tucks the ball and runs, but offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels has worked hard to have Maye keep his eyes downfield and he made some great plays last week finding his receivers outside the pocket.
Last week saw New England struggle on third down, converting just three of nine third downs against the Bills. Red Zone was again an issue.
Despite starting at the Buffalo 11-yard line after the defense forced a Keon Coleman fumble, the Patriots went backwards and kicked a field goal in the first quarter. Again, right before the half, penalties and a quick snap to try and beat the play clock and a delay of game saw an out-of-sync play miss Hunter Henry for an easy touchdown and New England had to settle for three again.
After week five, they are down from 10th to 14th in third down conversion percentage (40.4%) and down from eighth to 16th in Red Zone TD percentage with 12 of 19 trips resulting in touchdowns.
No doubt, Red Zone offense was a key point at practice as New England cannot afford to leave points on the board like they did last week.
Pass Offense:
New Orleans’ pass rush is, like the rest of the team, an odd mix of veterans and youth as the team cannot seem to commit to a full tear down and reset their salary cap. Cameron Jordan (36 years old) and Carl Granderson (29 years old) are the only Saints with more than one sack.
They have impressive 2023 first round draft pick Bryan Bresee who can bring pressure, and are getting back 2020 second overall pick Chase Young to add to the pass rush this week as he has recovered from the calf injury that held him out so far in 2025.
Tackles Morgan Moses and rookie Will Campbell have continued to improve as the season progresses in pass protection and may have had their best performance last week against Greg Rousseau and Joey Bosa. Giving Drake Maye time to operate in the pocket has opened up the passing attack in 2026 from New England and the rookie and the veteran at tackle have both played well.
The Patriots continued to have success in the short and intermediate passing game last week. Maye continues to spread the ball around on offense, with Stefon Diggs again his primary target. Unlike in previous seasons, with Maye’s mobility he is seeing teams respect his legs and play more zone. Diggs and tight end Hunter Henry have feasted against zone coverage with their veteran smarts in finding space.
Kayshon Boutte settled in as a third option and had a huge 19-yard reception on the final drive after a quiet start. DeMario Douglas showed up with two catches for 17 yards, which is decent production considering he had five receptions for 13 yards for the season coming into the game.
At some point, Kyle Williams needs to be on the field and attack a defense vertically, but New England probably needs the running backs to pile up some yards and draw in the safeties before that can happen.
The Saints’ pass defense has struggled with inconsistency and injuries in the secondary. Safety Julian Blackmon is on injured reserve after week one injury and Tyrann Mathieu (aka the Honey Badger) announced his retirement just prior to training camp this summer. The Saints pivoted and brought in veteran Justin Reid and leaned on third-round draft pick rookie Jonas Sanker at safety, but Reid is in concussion protocol this week and questionable.
At cornerback, second year player Kool-Aid McKinstrey tops the depth chart. The second-year second-round pick from Alabama was the defensive player of the week in the NFC last week with his first two career interceptions. With veteran Worcester, MA native and Boston College alumni Isaac Yiadom out this week, McKinstrey won’t have much help on the other side as veteran Michael Davis and fourth-round pick rookie Quincy Riley are next up on the depth chart.
Sanker, McKinstrey and 2022 second-round pick and slot cornerback Alontae Taylor have loads of potential and talent, but all three have been wildly inconsistent in 2025. When they played well last week against the Giants, they looked like building blocks for the future. However, two weeks earlier against Seattle, they all took turns giving up big plays.
Run Offense:
The Patriots continued to be inconsistent in the running game in 2025 last week. Rhamondre Stevenson again put the football on the ground and only averaged 2.0 yards per rush. Antonio Gibson tore his ACL and is out for the year, and TreVeyon Henderson still looks like he is thinking instead of reacting and hasn’t had an impact as a rusher, receiver, blocker or returner as expected.
While Stevenson did add two strong touchdown runs in the red zone later, the offense desperately needs the running game to produce to open up the play-action passing attack in the Josh McDaniels offense and create big strikes down the field. A few big runs into the secondary will help a very good passing attack take the next step.
Buffalo had been terrible against the run in 2025 but shut down the Patriots. The Saints have been inconsistent in the run defense. Big play opportunities should be there for this running back group in New England as the Saints lack speed on defense.
Old friend Davon Godchaux is the run stuffer in the middle for New Orleans and teams with another 30 and older club member Nathan Shepherd up front. Fellow 30 plus year old defensive linemen Jonah Williams and Jonathan Bullard also will rotate in along with Christ Rumph (feeling young at just 27 years old).
At linebacker, 2021 second-round pick Pete Werner teams up with former Jets linebacker Demario Davis. I know what you’re thinking, “Demario Davis played for those Rex Ryan Jets a dozen years ago. This is his kid, right?”. Nope, joining Cameron Jordan as 36-year old cornerstones on the defense, the Saints League of Extraordinary (Older) Gentlemen on defense continue to be counted on to contribute.
NO Offense vs NE Defense
The Saints offense looks like another strange mix of youth and veterans as the “reloading not rebuilding” mantra continues for a fifth season after Drew Brees retired after the 2020 season and the Saints had lost any realistic chance to contend in the NFC since then.
Somehow, General Manager Mickey Loomis has been allowed by the Benson family to keep his job through all this and got to bring in Kellen Moore to lead the team after the failed Dennis Allen experience. Instead of sweeping out the long-in-tooth players on both sides of the ball, Loomis continued to bring more veterans in hold out hope for something to magically change.
While quarterback Spencer Rattler has been better than expected working with the highly respected Moore, he is still limited. Moore has cut down his turnovers drastically, and Rattler has a 67% completion percentage with six passing touchdowns and just one interception so far in 2025. With second-round draft pick Tyler Shough waiting in the wings (Shough is a 26 year old rookie, Rattler played five seasons in college and is in his second season in the NFL and is a year younger than Shough!), Rattler is likely a placeholder in the role.
Pass Defense:
The Patriots have starting cornerback Christian Gonzalez back, although he is questionable this week on the injury report with a shoulder injury. He was back to his lockdown corner ways against Buffalo as he and Carlton Davis both had strong games and Marcus Jones added a huge interception as Allen went away from Davis and Gonzalez when he could.
Chris Olave is the top option for quarterback Spencer Rattler and should have Gonzalez draped on him (provided this popping up on the injury report is actually just recovery management from this training camp injury) as Olave’s 54 targets are the second most in NFL through five weeks behind just the Rams' workhorse Puka Nacua’s 63 targets (per ESPN Research)
Rashid Shaheed is a big play receiver who had an 87-yard touchdown reception last week. Veteran Brandin Cooks is back in New Orleans as the third receiver and veteran Devaughn Vele will play in four-receiver sets. As an owner of tight end Juwan Johnson in one of my fantasy leagues and forced to play him due to injury, I can attest that the 29-year old veteran is neither consistent nor a big play threat.
For New England, getting the pass rush going is going to be key. The New England pass rush has been inconsistent in 2025 so far. The Patriots are middle of the pack with blitz rates, and with Milton Wiliams and Christian Barmore wrecking opposing offensive lines, the push has been coming up the gut. Barmore is healthy and on a mission and with Williams they are driving the defense right now.
Harold Landry had a quiet game last week against the strong Bills offensive line and K’Lavon Chaisson missed the game due to injury. New England has already ruled out edge rusher Keion White (elbow) and fellow backup Anfernee Jennings (ankle), meaning undrafted rookie free agent Elijah Ponder may have to take a larger role or draft pick out of LSU, Bradyn Swinson, could be elevated from the practice squad to contribute.
The Patriots faced an elite offensive line last week. This week Saints may get veteran guard Cesar Ruiz back as he started practicing this week. The interior of the offensive line is the Saints’ strength as fellow veteran Erik McCoy is solid at center and washed out left tackle Trevor Penning is settling in at left guard.
The tackle play is where the Saints had question marks coming into the season with second-year first round-pick Taliese Fuaga on the right side and 2025 first-round pick Kelvin Banks on the left side. Banks and Fuaga have both exceeded expectations, and Banks was exceptional last week against the powerful Giants’ pass rush.
A few turnovers created by the Patriots could throw the Saints’ offense out of whack. However, don’t sleep on the Saints. This improving offensive line and better than expected quarterback play have them improved over 2024, despite the 1-4 record.
Run Defense:
The New England run defense gave up over 100 yards rushing last week for the second straight game in 2025, but most of those yards were Josh Allen doing Josh Allen things. The Patriots actually were excellent against the run being the first team to bottle up James Cook and the strong Buffalo rushing attack.
New Orleans has Kendre Miller, a third-round draft pick in 2023 still languishing behind Alvin Kamara. Kamara, at 30 years old, should be the third down back but remains the bell cow in New Orleans. He’s averaging just 3.9 yards per rush and hasn’t broken a run for 20 yards or more all season.
If guard Cesar Ruiz plays, he should help the run game for New Orleans. They’ve leaned on undrafted rookie Torricelli Simpkins so far in 2025 and the results have not been pretty.
Also expect some plays with tight end/quarterback/gadget guy Taysom Hill in the backfield now that he’s returned from injury. With his team-high $14 million cap hit, the Saints need some bang for their buck from the 36-year old overpaid player. FYI, they get out of his contract next year, but still have a $13 million dead money charge on their cap per OvertheCap.com).
For the Patriots, Milton Williams and Christian Barmore have continued attacking up the field and penetrating to blow up running plays. I expected inside linebacker Christian Elliss to lose time to veteran Jack Gibbens last week, but he still was out there on defense. Veteran Jahlani Tavai returned and was in for obvious rushing downs, which is his best fit.
Safety Jaylinn Hawkins has been a major contributor in the run defense coming up from the safety position but he has been ruled out Sunday with a hamstring injury. Dell Pettus and Kyle Dugger are expected to pick up those snaps, but keep an eye out for special teams ace Brenden Schooler as he logged a few snaps as the quarterback spy on defense and could be in that role again without Hawkins.
Other Factors:
New England Patriots rookie sixth-round draft pick kicker Andy Borregales nailed all three field goals on Sunday night in Buffalo, including a 52-yarder to win the game. For Borregales, who had struggled earlier in the season, hopefully this is the rookie turning a corner and kicking with confidence going forward.
Punter Bryce Baringer remains solid and, I guess, the rookie long snapper, Julian Ashby, has been fine. Not much to report here, which is good news.
Buffalo clearly respected New England punt returner Marcus Jones as the "Boomin’ Onion" intentionally punted short and high and clearly the Bills didn’t want to give him a chance to return a punt. With Antonio Gibson out for the season, last week we saw TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson both back to return kicks.
New Orleans saw Kendre Miller flub a kick return in the fourth quarter and give Seattle a free touchdown earlier this season. He and Velus Jones handle those duties while speedster Rashid Shaheed is their big play threat returning punts.
Blake Grupe is the kicker and he’s only made 10 of 15 field goals (66.7%) and only two of six from 40 yards plus. He did make a touchdown saving tackle on a kick return a few weeks back, so he has that and not missing an extra point this season going for him.
Undrafted rookie free agent Kai Kroeger has been…adequate. The special teams are just okay in New Orleans. They’re not great, but they’re adequate outside of Shaheed. This should be a big plus for New England this week on returns and defending returns.
Game Pick:
Last week was a great win for the Patriots. But everyone needs to take a deep breath. This team lost to the Raiders in week one, and the Raiders are terrible. They imploded with five turnovers in Pittsburgh in week three. This is a young and flawed team without much depth to withstand injuries.
That said, the win last week was huge and I understand getting ahead and thinking about the next four games being against bad teams with the Saints this week, followed by the Titans, Browns and Falcons. For those who consider the Falcons a good team, remember they lost to the Panthers this season 30-0. ‘Nuff said.
The Saints are a bizarre team. The roster construction seems like they think they’re a Super Bowl contender with all those veterans, but for a team in salary cap jail they need to make a youth movement and clean out but won’t pull the trigger. They’re already $15 million over the cap next year and have over $100 million in dead money and void years.
Regardless, the Patriots are going into New Orleans with some key injuries and the Saints have some good players mixed in on both sides of the ball. If New England takes them lightly, the Saints can make them pay.
I want to believe that this Patriots team can rack up some wins against bad teams with this easy schedule and this should be a very winnable game. Although apprehensive of them playing poorly after such a big emotional win last week, I will go with what my eyes see and pick the Patriots to win and cover on the road.
Patriots (-3.5) 31 at Saints 21
Comments