Yes, it certainly looks like it is going to be that kind of season for the New England Patriots.
After dispatching the New York Jets on a short week with a nationally televised prime-time audience able to get the full Drake Maye experience on Amazon’s Thursday Night Football, New England survived the trap game and won handily 27-14.
The New England Patriots’ continued to find a way to win in week eleven, despite losing star defensive tackle Milton Williams to a high ankle sprain that led to him being placed on injured reserve. At 9-2, New England remains 1.5 games ahead of the 7-3 Buffalo Bills in the AFC East.
With a huge match-up with Buffalo still looming after the bye week in December, New England needs to maintain focus on the next two games heading into the bye: a trip to Cincinnati (and maybe Joe Burrow?) this Sunday and then a Monday night match-up with the New York Giants.
New England currently has a top ten offense and defense, ranking seventh in points scored and ninth in total yards on offense. On defense, the Patriots’ unit is fifth in points allowed and eighth in total yards allowed.
Yes, the Patriots have clearly taken advantage of a last-place schedule, an influx of talent in free agency, improvements via the NFL Draft, and quarterback Drake Maye’s second-year leap under offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. However, last year they were 30th in points scored and 31st in total yards on offense and 22nd in both points and yards allowed on defense.
With these increased expectations now that they are on top of the AFC East and in the race for the number one seed in the AFC and a first-round bye in the playoffs, the Patriots come off this mini-break with a matchup in Cincinnati against one of the “Joe’s” at quarterback and the resurgent Bengals offense and porous defense.
Last Week:
The New England Patriots took care of business on Thursday night, but again the defense had a slow start to the game. On the initial drive, the Jets drove 72 yards on a whopping 14 plays eating 7:40 of game clock with five rushes by Jets’ quarterback Justin Fields and just two pass attempts by Fields (three total attempts, if you count the trickery with wide receiver Isaiah Williams adding an incompletion).
The Jets mixed in rushes by Breece Hall and Isaiah Davis before Fields scooted around the right end for a touchdown and a 7-0 Jets lead. Surprisingly, the Jets were able to complete all four third-downs on the drive as the New England defense seemed unprepared for Fields’ running ability.
New England answered with a 13 play drive for 69 yards and ended up in the end zone in the beginning of the second quarter. Maye completed all six of his passes on the drive and TreVeyon Henderson rushed the ball seven times including a seven-yard touchdown rumble to tie the game at seven.
The Patriots stopped the Jets on their next drive forcing a punt after a three and out and then Maye continued his prime-time mastery. Maye completed all four of his passes on the drive including 19 and 20 yard passes on consecutive plays to Mack Hollins to set up another seven yard run for Henderson to give New England a lead they would not relinquish.
The Jets went three-and-out on their next two drives but did force a punt as Maye threw incomplete on third down after running his consecutive completions to eleven straight. New England took over with less than two minutes remaining in the half and drove down the field to kick a 45-yard field goal but rookie Andres Borregales missed, they took a 14-7 lead into the break.
In the second half, the Patriots were a little sloppy on both sides of the ball, but with Maye hitting passes of 17 yards to Mack Hollins and 21 and 18 yard gains to Stefon Diggs, New England went up 21-7.
The Jets drove down the field to cut it to 21-14 but Maye responded with a drive that stalled at the beginning of the fourth quarter when the Jets finally got to Maye for a sack. However, Borregales nailed the 44-yard field goal to give New England the 24-14 lead.
After trading punts, the Jets coughed it up as Fields fumbled the snap giving New England a short field. The offense was still out of sync and settled for a short field goal to make it 27-14. The Jets tried to mount a drive and after converting two third downs, the Jets faltered in the red zone and failed to convert on fourth down. Henderson converted a third down and the Patriots ran down the clock to finish the Jets off.
How to Watch/Listen to the Game:
After being spoiled by having CBS’ top team of Jim Nantz and Tony Romo on CBS against the Buccaneers and then Al Michaels and Kirk Herbstreit on Amazon, the Patriots don’t have the A-team, but they have the very solid B-team on CBS/Paramount Plus.
This week’s game will be broadcast by CBS and can be seen locally on WBZ-TV Channel 4 in the greater Boston area and WPRI Channel 12 in the greater Providence area. The ever affable Kevin Harlan will handle play-by-play duties with former Rams quarterback Trent Green as the color analyst. Melanie Collins will provide updates from the sidelines.
This week’s game will be broadcast to a national audience by Sports USA. Larry Kahn will call the game with Marvin Lewis providing analysis.
As always, Sunday’s game will be broadcast locally on the radio by Bigelow Tea hawking play-by-play broadcaster Bob Socci calling the action along with former Patriots quarterback and Sports Hub “personality” Scott “Zo” Zolak providing his usual brand of what passes for analysis in these parts.
The Sports Hub pregame show kicks-off at 8am with the always informative Alex Barth and Cerrone Battle. At 10am, the Patriots Pregame show begins featuring Marc “the Beetle” Bertrand (ignore his blathering) and Boston Globe columnist Chris Gasper (he’s informative and intelligent) leading up to handing it off to Socci and Zo.
Key Stats:
The Patriots are now 4-2 at Gillette Stadium and 5-0 on the road in 2025 as they’re on to Cincinnati to try to extend their road winning streak. The current eight-game winning streak in 2025 is the longest streak since some guy named Tom Brady was under center.
New England’s offense is averaging 26.5 points per game after the win over the Jets bumping back up to seventh in the league in points scored, After racking up 336 yards against the Jets’ defense, New England jumped from 11th in total yards ninth with 3,927 total yards(all stats from Pro-Football-Reference.com, unless otherwise noted).
For the second consecutive game, Drake Maye was only sacked one time. Maye, after completion percentage leader Sam Darnold had a horrible game against the Rams’ strong defense, is back on top of the league with a 71.9% completion rate and now has 20 touchdowns passing to just five interceptions. He also is first in the league now with 2,836 yards and Adjusted Yards per Attempt (factoring in touchdown passes and interceptions).
New England, while seventh in passing yards, is 27th in the league in pass attempts, showing Josh McDaniels’ commitment to the running game to set up play action and the extraordinary efficiency and big play capability in the passing game.
They are sixth in the league with 20 passing touchdowns and ninth fewest interceptions thrown with just five through eleven games. Maye is second in the league with his 113.2 quarterback rating while averaging 8.9 yards per attempt and 12.3 yards per completion which are both second overall in the league behind Darnold.
However, despite a resurgence in the passing game, New England have allowed Maye to be sacked 36 times and are still struggling to run the ball consistently. They are 20th in rushing yards with just 1,242 yards on the ground after rushing for just 65 yards last week despite 27 attempts (counting kneeldowns).
On defense, the emphasis by head coach Mike Vrabel and interim defensive coordinator Zak Kuhr (Defensive Coordinator Terrell Williams has been on medical leave much of training camp and the season) on controlling the opponent’s running game has been phenomenal. The Jets came in with a top-five rushing offense and running back Breece Hall had just 58 yards on 14 attempts.
The team defense is fifth in the NFL in points allowed and eighth in total yards allowed. The Patriots have allowed the fewest rushing yards through eleven weeks (932 yards) and the fewest attempts (238), fewest rushing touchdowns (4), and the fifth fewest yards per attempt at 3.9 yards per rush allowed against New England this season.
The passing defense--which struggled during the 1-2 stretch to open the season before Christian Gonzalez got healthy and returned to the lineup--has improved dramatically since their number one cornerback got on the field. The Jets are horrible in passing, so not a real test, but Fields had just 116 yards through the air--with 41 of those yards coming in garbage time on their final drive of the game.
The New England pass defense was 26th in passing yards allowed heading into week five. After eleven weeks, they’ve improved to 17th in passing yards allowed. They’ve cut down somewhat on the big chunk plays allowed and are 20th in net yards allowed per attempt (after being as bad as 29th earlier in the season).
NE Offense vs CIN Defense:
The Patriots are facing a Cincinnati Bengals team also coming off a crushing defeat against Pittsburgh for their third straight defeat. Cincinnati basically had to run the table after their bye week in order to get into the playoff race, but at 3-7 and games at Baltimore and Buffalo after this Sunday, things are not looking good for Cincinnati staying in contention while Joe Burrow is out injured and now Ja’marr Chase is suspended.
For the offense, anything less than four or five touchdowns this week is a massive failure. This Cincinnati defense is historically bad. With former defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo turning around the Indianapolis defense and vaulting them into first place in the AFC South, the Bengals look foolish for firing him instead of placing the blame for drafting bad players on defense on the front office.
Trey Hendrickson is a premier pass rusher, B.J. Hill is a serviceable defensive tackle and breakout star cornerback DJ Turner could be the only other player out on the field that could start for the other 31 NFL teams. The rest of the defense is mostly high draft picks who they whiffed on completely.
Somehow, the Bengals have allowed the most points, the most yards, the most first downs, the second-most passing yards, the most passing touchdowns and the most rushing yards so far in 2025. Other than week one against the Browns, the Bengals haven’t held an opponent under 27 points this season.
Futility at that level is almost impossible.
The New England offense is now sixth in the league on third down conversion percentage (42.7%) and are excellent on fourth down (13 of 16 conversions for an 81.3%) ranking number one in the league in fourth down conversion percentage. The aggressive approach from Mike Vrabel and trust in the offense to convert on fourth down is a breath of fresh air in Foxboro.
The Red Zone should continue to be a point of emphasis for the offense. New England is middle of the pack ranking 17th in Red Zone TD percentage (down from 14th a few weeks ago) with just 23 of 40 trips resulting in touchdowns (57.5%). I vote for more Khyris Tonga at fullback in the Red Zone.
New York’s defense is 11th in the NFL on third down percentage, allowing just a 34.2% conversion rate (40 of 117). On fourth down, they’ve allowed seven of ten conversions. In the Red Zone, the defense has held strong in 2025 allowing touchdowns on just 18 of 31 trips ranking 13th in the league.
While nothing seems to work for the Bengals’ defense, they do not like to blitz and are dead last in the NFL (15.8%) in blitz rate (per Sharp Football Analysis). Likely, that is due to not trusting the lousy defense. They are middle of the pack as far as man/zone coverages, as neither seems too well for them.
Pass Offense:
The Bengals’ pass rush comes from Hendrickson. That’s about it. Seriously. They are third-from-last in pressure rate (29.9%). Hendrickson has fought injuries and has four sacks in seven games. The rest of the defense has ten total sacks for the season.
Joseph Ossai was re-signed this offseason and is second in sacks with three. First round draft pick in 2023 Myles Murphy has 2.5 and veteran tackle B.J. Hill has two. They struggle to generate pressure without blitzing, and outside of DJ Turner at cornerback the secondary has been terrible so the Bengals can’t trust matching up one-on-one.
Tackling has been a huge issue in Cincinnati on defense, as no one has been able to bring opponents down. Instead of bringing in their younger players and emptying the practice squad to see what some of these players can do on Sunday, the Bengals keep interesting college producers Howard Cross, Barlyn Lux, Brian Asamoah, Cedric Johnson and Josh Newton buried on the practice squad or on the bench.
First round draft pick last year and edge rusher Shemar Stewart is on injured reserve, but the rest of the defense is healthy. The secondary is littered with top-100 draft picks (safety Jordan Battle - 3rd round 2023; cornerback Cam Taylor-Britt - 2nd round 2022; nickelback Dax Hill - 1st round 2022; and DJ Turner (their only good cover corner) - 2nd round 2023).
They’ve got high picks up front with Murphy (2023 1st round) and Ossai (2021 3rd round) and they have McKinnley Jackson (3rd round 2023) and Kris Jenkins (2nd round 2024) sitting on the bench at defensive tackle behind free agent pick ups Hill and T.J. Slaton.
It’s not working on defense in Cincinnati, but the changes aren’t coming for some bizarre reason. At least one change is likely, as starting cornerback Cam Taylor-Britt injured his foot and may require surgery and is not expected to play on Sunday and it is likely he is done for the season (or done forever in Cincinnati!).
The New England offensive line gave up some pressure but only one sack again last week as after some porous performances they have tightened up considerably. The Jets had some excellent edge rushers and the Patriots stood up to the challenge for the most part.
Again, like against Tampa the week before, Drake Maye showed he is able to learn and grow during the season as a quarterback, which is so much fun to recognize and see the progression. Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels’ message got through to Maye to throw the ball away and not take the sack instead of trying to extend every play and risk losing yardage (and the dreaded sack and fumble).
Tackles Morgan Moses and rookie Will Campbell have been solid in pass protection the past two weeks and both will likely see Hendrickson (who is on the injury report with a sports hernia and is doubtful to play after missing the game last week versus the Steelers). Murphy and Ossai are only on the field because they lack better options as both are disappointments who have not lived up to their draft status. Cedric Johsnon, in very limited snaps this season, has been one of the few sure tacklers and competent defenders.
Hill can be a handful for the interior linemen, but fellow defensive tackle T.J. Slaton and linebackers Oren Burks and rookies Barrett Carter and Demetrius Knight get swept up on passing downs and stonewalled at the line of scrimmage as opposing offensive lines overwhelm them.
The New England wide receivers and tight ends (Austin Hooper is off the injury report after missing the Jets game) will be looking for the ball anytime other than DJ Turner is in coverage. Last week, Pittsburgh--with a declining Aaron Rodgers and benchwarmer Mason Rudolph--carved up the secondary completing 21 of 31 passes for 243 yards and 13 first downs through the air and two touchdowns.
👉What should a quarterback like Drake Maye--light years ahead of that Pittsburgh duo--do against this secondary?👈
Stefon Diggs continued his strong play last week as he again topped 100 yards receiving hauling in five targets for 105 yards on a windy Thursday night. Mack Hollins again stepped up in the absence of Kayshon Boutte (who is trending towards returning from his hamstring injury on Sunday) and tight end Hunter Henry and slot receiver Demario Douglas made the most of their opportunities in the passing game.
The Steelers running backs last week combined for nine receptions for 86 yards and two touchdowns against the Bengals. That portends well for TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson in the passing game.
Tight ends Pat Friermuth and Darnell Washington also had a combined five receptions for 86 yards as the Bengals focused on trying to contain D.K. Metcalf. The other wide receivers for Pittsburgh are subpar and Rodgers is hesitant to throw the ball downfield, or else they may have made more of their opportunities.
Five teams have already topped 400 total yards of offense in a game versus the Bengals in 2025, with three surpassing 500 yards. The Bengals haven’t created a turnover in three games although they have eight interceptions as a team, although two of them came in week one against their current quarterback when he was a Cleveland Brown.
DJ Turner pitched a shutout last week for Cincinnati, as he allowed no completions on three targets. In other words, the rest of the defense combined to allow 21 of 28 completions to a pair of mediocre quarterbacks.
The Patriots catch a huge break getting the Bengals defense with Hendrickson out or extremely limited if he plays at all. Anything less than 250 passing yards and 35 or more points by the New England offense would be considered a disappointment.
Run Offense:
The Patriots continued to be inconsistent in the running game in 2025 and after a few strong performances against Tennessee, Cleveland, Atlanta and Tampa Bay, the inconsistencies showed up against the Jets on Thursday night.
Although rookie TreVeyon Henderson had a pair of touchdown runs, as a team they gained 65 yards on 27 carries (25 rushes for 68 yards not counting the pair of kneeldowns at the end of the game), which is less than three yards per rush. The Jets defense had struggled against the run most of the season, making this inconsistency more troubling.
Fortunately, the Bengals are just terrible against the run. Missed tackles are everywhere on their game film. Hop on a Bengals thread on Twitter (I refuse to call it “X”) and the poor fans are apoplectic about the missed tackles.
Per the Dayton Daily News: 👇
“Cincinnati had 16 missed tackles Sunday and is up to 109 missed tackles this season — 28 more than any other team"
For New England, with such a poor tackling opponent, there should be the opportunity for another TreVeyon Henderson lightning strike touchdown run. Add in Rhamondre Stevenson returning from injury with his hard running style running into a defense that does not tackle well (again, 16 missed tackles last week!) and
CIN Offense vs NE Defense
One week after the Jets’ offense was without standout wide receiver Garrett Wilson on Thursday night after he reinjured his knee, The Patriots get another break with the schedule with Ja’Marr Chase suspended for the game for what turned out to be a half-million dollar loogey.
If they are really lucky, the Bengals will hold out Joe Burrow until Thanksgiving and play Joe Flacco at quarterback this weekend. However, Flacco has been nursing a shoulder injury for the past few weeks and Burrow has been a full participant at practices during the week which portends for him being activated from injured reserve and facing New England on Sunday as the Bengals are at their most desperate with any loss the rest of the way effectively eliminating them from the playoff picture.
The Bengals’ offense has been the best part of their season, and it has been inconsistent and often stuck in neutral. With Burrow out after just two games (both wins), the team turned to back-up Jake Browning. Although he had weathered the Burrow injury in the past with success, he was terrible throwing eight interceptions in three losses and just 37 points scored total in those games.
To try and turn things around, the Bengals pulled the trigger on an inter-divisional trade getting Joe Flacco from Cleveland. Flacco has fought injuries but still marched out there for five straight starts at age 40. He has stabilized the quarterback position averaging 290 yards passing and throwing a dozen touchdowns with just three interceptions.
One thing Cincinnati has done well on offense is convert on third down. They are tenth in the NFL converting 41.1% of their third downs (51 of 124) and are fifth on fourth down converting five of seven attempts this year.
After a rough week eleven, the Patriots are down to 11th in third down defense as they struggled to get the Jets off the field at times. They have allowed opponents to convert 45 of 122 third downs (36.9%) but remain strong on fourth down, allowing just five conversions on a whopping 16 attempts (31.3%).
The struggle on defense in New England has been the Red Zone. Opponents have 18 touchdowns on 25 trips for a 72% conversion rate. The Patriots have to tighten up inside the twenty. While they have done well to prevent opponents from reaching the Red Zone, they must perform better going forward.
New England will need to follow their game plan for all season to stuff the running game early, which they struggled to do against the Jets last week, and force Flacco to try to test Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis with wide receivers Tre Higgins, Andrei Iosivas and preseason star/regular season special teamer Mitchell Tinsley.
Tinsley is easy to root for. He was unranked out of high school and spent two years at a community college before he starred at Western Kentucky catching passes from Bailey Zappe. He transferred to Penn State and went undrafted and signed in Washington, playing two games in 2023 and spending all of 2024 on their practice squad. He was signed this offseason by the Bengals and broke out during the Monday Night preseason game versus the Commanders with five catches for 73 yards in the first half and has been on the active roster as their fourth receiver.
Tinsley is likely to get a chunk of playing time against the Patriots with Chase suspended. He’s only had three receptions for 49 yards while playing just 89 snaps. However, he made the roster due to his size (six-foot-one and 205 lbs.) and athleticism and ability to make difficult catches throughout training camp and the preseason.
Tee Higgins obviously gets the spotlight for the Bengals and Andrei Iosivas will be important as well. However, Cincinnati plays a whopping 75.3% of their offensive snaps with three wide receivers so while Higgins and Iosivas rarely leave the field, that leaves Tinsley next in line to basically be a starter on offense.
The big question is Joe Burrow. If he plays, he elevates the entire team and gives them a lift on both sides of the ball and belief they outscore anyone.
Pass Defense:
The Patriots have improved their pass defense throughout the season after getting lit up by Geno Smith and Tua Tagovailoa for a combined 630 yards through the air in the first two weeks of the season. While that seems like a million years ago, let’s remember that this unit has not exactly been facing MVP candidates each week.
Yes, they played very well on a cold night in Foxboro against the MVP himself, Josh Allen, on the first Sunday of October and the real turning point of the season. Since that game, only Baker Mayfield has topped 250 total yards passing. However, the decrepit corpse of Aaron Rodgers, Bryce Young, Spencer Rattler, Cam Ward, Dillon Gabriel, Michael Penix and Justin Fields are about what you’d get if you were trying to round up some of the worst quarterbacks in the league.
No matter about the past, this week the competition is stepping up. While not facing Ja’Marr Chase is another lucky bounce in a season full of them for the Patriots, having to potentially face Joe Burrow is one of their first bad bounces. Even if the Burrow practice displays are just mind games from Zac Taylor as he suddenly has a tenuous hold on his job as head coach, Joe Flacco is a step up from most of the quarterbacks faced so far in 2025.
One point that has been made this week in all the media outlets is that Cincinnati remains very effective on offense without Chase in the lineup. Mainly, that is due to Tee Higgins. Higgins is really a number one wide receiver on a team with two young number ones. New England fans had high hopes Higgins would test free agency and look for a landing spot where he could be the clear cut number one, but he passed up the opportunity to stay in Cincinnati.
Without Chase, it is still a challenging match-up for cornerbacks Christian Gonzalez, Carlton Davis and Marcus Jones this week. One thing that New England did so well with Bill Belichick was design defense where his top man-press cornerback could follow an opponent’s top receiver anywhere on the field.
What gets overlooked is that very few teams can do that, because it requires the rest of the defense to basically be playing an entirely different defensive match-up. Fans have lamented that Gonzalez has not been following the opponent’s top wideout, but that disrupts the rest of the secondary’s coverage. It is not easy and it is why unless your defensive system has been in place with the same players running it for years, it is difficult to pull off.
Teams have run bunch formations and attempted to isolate Gonzalez on a tight end in three-by-one formations this year to keep him away from their top wide receiver. Last week, the Jets did that to get AD Mitchell and John Metchie away from matchups with Gonzalez, just as Atlanta and Tampa Bay had done to get more favorable matchups for Drake London and Emeka Ebuka.
Throw out just about anything from last Thursday in the passing game. The Jets were running a high school offense. Even without Chase, this is a very difficult series of match-ups for New England.
One thing about the Bengals receivers is that they all have size. Marcus Jones is in for a tough game no matter who he draws. Cincinnati has Higgins (six-foot-four), Iosivas (six-foot-four), and Tinsley (six-foot-one but uber athletic) at the wide receiver positions and with Noah Fant (six-foot-four) and possibly old friend Mike Gesicki (six-foot-six) back, the Bengals have the height advantage across the board.
The New England pass rush will have extra pressure on them to step up as the secondary needs to limit the time in coverage with the matchup issues.
The big issue is that interior pass rusher Milton Williams is on injured reserve with a high ankle sprain and out the next four games. While Christian Barmore should be a disruptive force, he loses his running mate and what made them a dynamic duo rushing from the interior.
Fourth-round draft pick Joshua Farmer and unexpected contributor Cory Durden will have a little extra on their plate this week and for the next month as they will be counted on to take Williams’ snaps. On the edge, Harold Landry--who has seen his pressure rate drop since tweaking his knee a few weeks back--needs to get back to getting to the quarterback.
He and K’Lavon Chaisson, who looked impressive early in the season, have both seemingly hit a wall. Whether fifth-round draft pick Bradyn Swinson or undrafted rookie Elijah Ponder gets some playing time on the edge to try and generate pressure, it will be necessary regardless of whether it is the veteran Joe Flacco or Joe Burrow.
The numbers don’t tell much with Cincinnati as they are without Ja’Marr Chase and the offense was non-functional when Jake Browning was under center for three games. Flacco or Burrow under center, it is a dangerous unit. One thing that stands out is that they are excellent on third down (tenth in the NFL with a 41.1% conversion rate) and they don’t waste much time running the ball as they’re second in the league in pass attempts.
What is clear watching the Bengals in 2025 is that for the first time in a long time the offensive line is not the root of their problems. While hardly a top-ten unit, the group is respectable and not the porous sieve that so many other Cincinnati blocking units were in the past.
The Bengals have solidified the tackles with big Orlando Brown Jr. (son of Zeus!) and 2024 first round pick Amarius Mims. Mims is a bit of a work in progress and can be inconsistent and have bad plays, bad drives and bad games, but overall is a future staple on the right side. He is big and strong and a mauler who can be susceptible to a speed rush.
Brown was very good last year but has struggled this year. Even at his best in Baltimore and Kansas City, Brown never unlocked his full potential. He’s seemingly regressing in 2025 the Bengals may be forced to flip tackles next season and try Mims on the left side to protect Burrow’s blind side.
Old friend Ted Karras mans the center position. While undersized and lacking athleticism, Karras is one of the smartest and toughest players in the league and makes up in brains what he lacks in brawn. His veteran leadership is a big reason for the offensive line playing well.
At guard, the Bengals have been going with two rookies with third round draft pick Dylan Fairchild on the left side and fifth round draft pick Jalen Rivers holding off veteran Dalton Risner after Risner flunked his early season audition at right guard. While Fairchild and Rivers have been surprisingly solid, Rivers had an ankle injury last week against Pittsburgh and the line play declined with Risner stepping in.
Regardless of which Joe is at quarterback, the Cincinnati passing offense is a tough test for the pass defense. Another factor that could help New England is that the Bengals don’t do much to disguise or motion on offense. What you see is what you get.
Per Sharp Football Analysis, the Bengals are in the bottom ten in Motion Rate and second-to-last in play action rate with only the Falcons running less. They are third in the NFL in shotgun rate, lining up in shotgun over 84% percent of their snaps. And as far as the hurry-up offense, it is nearly non-existent. They run it just 3.7% of the snaps, the fourth lowest in the NFL.
Run Defense:
The New England run defense has declined slightly from its hot start, but this week is kind of irrelevant. As a Chase Brown fantasy league owner, his inconsistent usage has basically torpedoed my season. Now I know no one cares about someone else’s fantasy team roster, but the point being made is that Brown was a big part of the success in 2024 but has been handcuffed by the Bengals abandoning the run early and often.
Brown is a decent back and can catch the ball out of the backfield. He had a rough start to 2025 being bottled up in week one by the Browns. He has only hit 50 yards rushing in a game against Pittsburgh and the Jets and has just two rushing touchdowns for the entire season.
Samaje Perine is the backup and a capable runner, receiver and blocker--although he has lost a step over the years. He makes up for it now with his veteran experience and is excellent at converting third downs through the air and on draw plays.
New England had some leakage in the run defense the past two weeks, although Tampa caught them a couple times with extra defensive backs on the field and the Jets success was for the most part with quarterback option runs.
The Jets became the fourth team to top 75 yards rushing so far in 2025 against New England joining Carolina (129 yards), Buffalo (118 yards) and Tampa (113 yards) topping 100 yards on the ground. The Jets piled up a season-high 140 yards rushing allowed--which looks bad until you realize they had just 105 yards passing and New England won handily.
The Bengals have rushed for 100 or more yards in a game just three times all season. After not cracking 85 yards in a game in any of the first six weeks of the season, they broke through twice against the Steelers’ declining defense and against the Jets’ inconsistent run defense.
For the Patriots, Milton Williams being out obviously impacts the run defense as he has made some big plays penetrating in the backfield so far in 2025. Christian Barmore will have to pick up the slack there as well as in the pass rush.
Nose tackle Khyris Tonga continues to be a consistent force while filling the middle of the defense and giving opposing teams no space to run. New England needs to get a contract offer ready for the big Samoan run stuffer as he is playing on a one-year $2.1 million contract that he has outplayed.
Linebackers Robert Spillane, Jack Gibbens and now Jahlani Tavai (taking over for an injured Christian Ellis) have taken advantage of their opportunities cleaning up running backs behind or near the line of scrimmage for the most part this season. There were tackling issues earlier in the season that they’ve cleaned up for the most part.
Safety Jaylinn Hawkins has been a major contributor in the run defense coming up from the safety position and his hard hits often set the tone on defense. Rookie Craig Woodson and the cornerbacks have been willing tacklers in the run defense as well and all eleven pulling together is a big reason for their success in 2025.
For New England, the game plan revolves around the passing attack, not the running game. No doubt, they would be ecstatic to see Cincinnati go against form and spend much of their time trying to get the 30th ranked rushing attack in gear. So far in 2025, the Bengals are 30th in rushing yards, dead last in rushing attempts and 26th in rushing touchdowns.
Other Factors:
The Bengals have the most underused punt returner in the league, as no defense forces fewer punts. We’ve reached week 12 and Cincinnati has just nine punt returns total for the entire season. Charlie Jones has all nine and has been about average.
That said, their kick returners are exhausted, as they’ve been overworked from opponents scoring on their defense. Jones does have a 98 yard touchdown return and Samaje Perine also is often back to return kicks. On occasion, rookie Tahj Brooks may be back deep to return a kickoff.
The Patriots coverage units have been solid if not spectacular. They gave up a punt return touchdown to the Dolphins in week two with Malik Washington returning the punt 74 yards.
👀Are the Patriots good or bad on return coverage?👀
You’d never know with the Boston media coverage focused entirely on stupid crap like what Cam Newton said about the Patriots on some ESPN talking heads show.
I had to turn to my friends at The Football Database to get my hands on some special teams stats to validate what I’ve seen with my eyes this season. New England is seventh in the NFL in kick return coverage, allowing just 24.09 yards average and a long of just 34 yards on kick returns.
Punt coverage is where the worries are for the Patriots’ special teams. They have improved in the past few weeks as I started digging into the punt coverage and paying more attention. They are no longer the worst but just the ninth worst punt coverage unit allowing 13.29 yards per return.
In the kicking game, New England Patriots rookie sixth-round draft pick kicker Andy Borregales has continued to improve each week after a shaky start to his career in New England. The rookie is kicking with confidence and has been steady with extra points, field goals and kickoffs.
Punter Bryce Baringer remains solid despite the occasional side-of-foot short wobbler. More consistency, more hang time, and less returns are needed from Baringer. He does have 12 punts that resulted in a fair catch, which out of 29 punts is a decent average.
Who can tell unless he airmails or dirt-hops a snap, but the rookie long snapper, Julian Ashby, has been fine as far as I’ve seen so far.
Efton Chism has been on the active roster to return kicks and has been…just okay. The Patriots are middle of the pack average on returns averaging 25.26 yards per return per The Football Database.
New England is sixth in the NFL in punt returns at 15.6 yards per return. Marcus Jones remains a threat to return a punt to the house anytime and has had very limited opportunities in November as teams just refuse to give him a chance to return a punt.
Game Pick:
The Patriots have been churning through bad teams all season and racking up victories. Other than the Bills in week five and two weeks ago against Tampa, they’ve played the schedule they earned as one of the worst teams over 2023 and 2024.
I was pretty close on my score prediction last week (27-11 and it was 27-14) as I had the Patriots winning, covering the spread and hitting the under (barely).
The Patriots have some uncertainty as to who is lining up in the shotgun behind old friend Ted Karras on Sunday. I fully expect the Bengals to rush back Burrow this week. If he can walk and throw on the toe, they are at the point of their season where at 3-7 one more loss ends their playoff chances, which are slim to begin with right now.
I am leaning into the Patriots covering the spread and the team’s hitting the over on the under/over this week. The Bengals’ passing attack, even without Ja’Marr Chase and even if for some reason it is Flacco at quarterback, is still going to make plays and put some points on the board. The receivers and tight ends are tough to cover with their decided size advantage.
That said, the defense is trash. Joe Burrow is not going to play defense. Yes, he should give the entire team a boost, but that won’t help them tackle better. Add in a secondary where only one player is playing well and they are down a starter at cornerback, missing their top pass rushers, and the linebackers have struggled with missed tackles and I am wondering why I don’t have the Patriots topping 50 points scored.
The Joe Burrow fever is driving bets on the Bengals--the spread is down to 7 points after being at 8.5 just 48 hours ago. The over/under hopped up a full point and the moneyline is going to Cincinnati. That's fine with me, as I still have New England winning by two touchdowns. Vegas must be loving all these "Burrow is Back, Baby!" bets coming out of Ohio!
PATRIOTS 38 @ BENGALS 24
Spread: Patriots -7: Patriots
Moneyline: Patriots -340, Bengals +270: Patriots
Over/Under: 51.5: Over
Bonus Patriots 4 Leg Parlay Pick of the Week:
- Patriots -7
- Over 51.5
- TreVeyon Henderson Rushing Yards 40+
- Drake Maye Passing Yards 250+
DraftKings +525 - $10 bet = $62.50 total payout
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