The last time the New England Patriots and the Buffalo Bills met was in week five of the 2025 season on a crisp, early October evening at Highmark Stadium (aka “the Ralph”) at 1 Bills Drive in Orchard Park. The Bills at 4-0 coming into the game were rolling to what seemed to be on their way to another inevitable sixth consecutive AFC East championship.
The Patriots were 2-2 and had lost to the Raiders in week one, edged out the Dolphins in a wild, high-scoring game, turned the ball over five times in losing to the Steelers in week three, and fell behind the Panthers 6-0 in the first quarter and the boo-birds were out in Foxboro that day before Marcus Jones turned the entire season around with an 87-yard punt return touchdown leading to New England ripping off 42 straight points.
Going into Buffalo for a nationally televised prime-time game there were a lot of “yeah, but it was against Carolina” responses as the Patriots looked like a wildly inconsistent young team trying to find their footing in the first quarter of the season. Of course, that was expected. At that time, my expectation was six wins for the season with an 8-9 record look on as the best case scenario.
Flash-forward to week fifteen and New England has not lost since week three against Pittsburgh. The Patriots behind MVP candidate Drake Maye sit atop the AFC East with a chance to clinch the division with a win against Buffalo in Foxboro on Sunday afternoon.
It is simply inconceivable that the ten game win streak has taken place and the Patriots find themselves coming off the bye week in this position of strength. Suddenly the Bills, the bullies of the AFC East for the past five years, are in the position of looking up at another team ahead of them in the standings.
Sure, the 2023 Bills team were 5-5 at one point and behind the Dolphins in the standings, but Buffalo had blown out Miami earlier that year 48-20 and knew they would meet in week 18 with a chance to catch-up and run them down in the standings (that Miami defense was garbage that year as the spoiled players rant to head coach Mike McDaniel crying because mean old Vic Fangio wasn’t their friend like him and would yell at them).
Somehow, the Patriots are in position to win the AFC East even if they lose to Buffalo, as their match-up next week in Baltimore doesn’t look quite as scary as it did when the schedule came out as the Ravens are 6-7 and Lamar Jackson and the offense look out of sorts while the defense continues to struggle to mount a pass rush and got lit up last week by the previously non-existent downfield passing attack of the Steelers.
The Patriots close out the season with a trip to New Jersey to face the Jets in week 17--and who knows if it will be Tyrod Taylor, Justin Fields or Brady Cook at quarterback for that game--and then finish at home with the Dolphins--who may already be eliminated from the postseason at that point and not have a lot to play for in week 18.
Trying not to look too far into the uncertain future after what happened in Indianapolis this season with the Colts falling apart in every conceivable way after their 7-1 start, but just imagine that New England could conceivably be in play for the number one seed in the AFC going into Miami. The Broncos are tied at 11-2 right now, but the Broncos face a tough test down the stretch playing the NFC North leading Packers, the AFC South leading Jaguars, the always dangerous Chiefs in Kansas City and close out the year in what could be a game for the division lead in the AFC West against the Chargers.
Last Week:
The New England Patriots were on a bye last week so not much to report. They desperately needed the week of rest. The team was running out of gas in a hurry and injuries were starting to pile up. Credit head coach Mike Vrabel for getting this team ready to play on Monday night against the New York Giants.
In that game, the Patriots jumped out to a 17-0 lead and never looked back against New York, running their lead to 30-7 at the half. While the Giants scored at the beginning of the fourth quarter to cut the lead to 30-15, the Patriots eventually went on a 12 play drive eating the clock down to close to the two-minute warning and kicking a field goal to salt the game away with a 33-15 win.
Drake Maye led the way with 282 yards passing and a pair of touchdowns. While he was sacked three times, it was only for a combined negative six yards. TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson split the carries and combined for 107 yards on 23 carries. Hunter Henry led the way with four catches for 73 yards.
On defense, Christian Ellis set the tone with a ringing hit on a scrambling Jaxson Dart when the Giants’ rookie quarterback didn’t run out of bounds. Harold Landry added to his team-leading sack total and undrafted rookie free agent Elijah Ponder added his third sack in the last four games.
The Giants had some success running the football, as Devin Singletary and Tyrone Tracy combined for 104 yards on 22 carries, but the Patriots were not too concerned with the rushing yards with their banged-up defensive front (Milton Williams on injured reserve and Khyiris Tonga inactive with a chest injury). The pass defense was excellent, as Dart was held to 139 yards passing and never threatened.
How to Watch/Listen to the Game:
The Patriots return to CBS this week as the game was likely protected from being flexed into prime time. Locally, the game is found on WBZ-TV Channel 4 in the greater Boston area and WPRI 12-CBS in the greater Providence area.
While not the top unit at CBS, at least we are spared from the “oohs” and “ahhs” and the “I don’t know, Jim!” utterances of Tony Romo. Instead, the serviceable Ian Eagle will handle play-by-play duties with former Houston Texans defensive end J.J. Watt as the color analyst. Evan Washburn will provide analysis from the sidelines.
Hopefully, Watt packed his Texans’ “letterman jacket” as we just passed the 13 year anniversary of the 11-1 Texans were riding a six game win streak and came into Foxboro with the entire team wearing them. The Patriots obliterated them, jumping out to a 28-0 lead and winning 42-14.
This week’s game will be broadcast to a national audience on the radio by Sports USA. Larry Kahn will call the game with former Bengals head coach Marvin Lewis providing analysis.
As always, Sunday’s game will be broadcast locally on the radio by Bigelow Tea hawking play-by-play broadcaster Bob Socci calling the action along with former Patriots quarterback and Sports Hub “personality” Scott “Zo” Zolak providing analysis.
The Sports Hub pregame show kicks-off at 8am with the always informative Alex Barth and Cerrone Battle. At 10am, the Patriots Pregame show begins featuring the always annoying Marc “the Beetle” Bertrand and the always informative Boston Globe columnist Chris Gasper leading up to handing it off to Socci and Zo.
Key Stats:
The Patriots are now 5-2 at Gillette Stadium and 6-0 on the road in 2025 as they host the second-place Buffalo Bills in a game with huge AFC East ramifications. The current ten-game winning streak in 2025 ties the longest winning streak in one season with the 2015 Patriots squad.
New England’s offense is averaging 27.0 points per game remaining seventh in the league in points scored, After piling up 395 total yards against the Giants’ defense, New England is up to eighth in the NFL as they approach 5,000 total yards of offense for the season (all stats from Pro-Football-Reference.com, unless otherwise noted).
New England is eighth in the league with 267 first downs and second overall in total passing yards. While 21st in the league in rushing yards, Josh McDaniels has not abandoned the running game as the team is sixth in the NFL in rushing attempts.
Maye remains the completion percentage leader as he has produced a 71.5% completion rate and 3,412 yards passing. He now has 23 touchdowns passing to just six interceptions. He is first in the league in Adjusted Yards per Attempt (factoring in touchdown passes and interceptions) with a 9.33 yards average.
New England, while second in passing yards, is 25th in the league in pass attempts, a statistic that shows how effective the downfield passing by Maye and his receivers have been this season. After all the criticism heaped on the New England wide receiver room, Stefon Diggs, Kayshon Boutte, Mack Hollins, Demario Douglas and rookie Kyle Williams have all contributed this season in the deep passing attack.
On defense, the emphasis by head coach Mike Vrabel and interim defensive coordinator Zak Kuhr (Defensive Coordinator Terrell Williams has been on medical leave much of training camp and the season) on controlling the opponent’s running game early in the season has been replaced by a team that has taken a big step forward defending opposing passing attacks.
That success will have a huge test this week with Josh Allen, but since allowing 258 yards passing to the Buccaneers, the Jets, Bengals and Giants had just 105, 187, and 128 yards through the air.
New England is up to 14th in the league in passing yards allowed and 13th in net yards allowed per attempt. Considering how the secondary got lit up by Geno Smith and the Raiders in week one, this is a dramatic improvement. The New England pass defense was 26th in passing yards allowed heading into week five.
The Patriots are still strong overall against the run, as they are third in yards allowed and second in the league with just five rushing touchdowns allowed all season. They are tenth overall in yards per attempt, allowing just a 4.0 average.
The team defense is fifth in the NFL in points allowed (18.5 points per game) and seventh in total yards allowed.
In week five against Buffalo, they allowed 363 yards of total offense, as the Bills passed for 245 yards and rushed for another 118. What made the difference that night was that New England’s defense forced a season-high three turnovers, with the third quarter interception by Marcus being the most impactful. Christian Gonzalez had a huge stop on third-and-ten with 2:31 remaining that forced Buffalo to kick a field goal.
NE Offense vs BUF Defense:
The Patriots are facing a Buffalo Bills team with revenge on their mind. After ruling the AFC East and being a perennial Super Bowl contender (always falling just short), the Bills suddenly have the best young quarterback in the league in their division. Despite back-to-back 4-13 seasons, New England’s offense is driving them to the top of the AFC East.
The New England offense is eighth in the league on third down conversion percentage (42.7%) but have been excellent on fourth down attempts. They are 14 of 18 on their fourth down conversions for an amazing 77.8% success rate for the season, easily ranking first in the league in fourth down conversion percentage.
The Red Zone problems continue as the Patriots are 25th in Red Zone TD percentage (down from 14th a month ago) with just 24 of 47 trips resulting in touchdowns (51.1%). The first drive of the game against the Giants, the Patriots had first and goal at the seven yard line and settled for a field goal.
Buffalo has had a topsy-turvy season, as despite being 9-4, they have had inconsistencies on both sides of the ball. The Bills are fifth in points scored, but while they have seven games scoring over 30 points (and 40 or more three times), they also have four games scoring 20 or less. No surprise, those are their four losses.
That points to a defense that needs the offense to carry the load for them. Last week, the Bills allowed 34 points to Cincinnati, a week after they made Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers’ offense look incompetent. The defense gave up 40 points in week one to Baltimore and then allowed 30 points to Miami and 32 points to Tampa Bay in back to back weeks prior to the Steelers game.
Tendencies-wise on defense, the Bills are near the bottom of the pack blitzing, bringing extra pressure just 20.2% of the time, ranking 27th in the league. Buffalo prefers to have extra defensive backs on the field just like the New England defense and are tied for fifth in the league on Sub Package Rate, with 80% of their defensive snaps having an extra defensive back (per Sharp Football Analysis).
Pass Offense:
The Buffalo pass defense has surprisingly been one of the surprises of this season. They currently rank second in the NFL in fewest passing yards allowed. They’re seventh in fewest touchdowns allowed and eighth in net yards per attempt allowed. Despite these gaudy numbers, they’re not highly regarded.
Sharp Football Analysis ranked Buffalo as 20th in the league with their initial ranking of the Buffalo secondary. Pro Football Focus ranked them right in the middle at 14th in the NFL.
The Bills’ secondary features Christian Benford, probably the most underrated cornerback in the NFL, and a lot of other parts that seem a mishmash that somehow works. Benford is the number one cornerback capable of following any receiver or locking down a side. He is excellent in man coverage and a ball-hawk in zone coverage.
Benford has been playing at a high level, especially in the last month. However, he landed on the injury list this week as he injured a toe at practice. He did not practice on Friday and his status is up in the air for Sunday. If Benford misses the game, it could be a catastrophic loss for Buffalo.
Beyond Benford at cornerback, Tre’davious White was excellent six years ago, but is long in the tooth and has lost a step. Undersized first round draft pick Maxwell Hairston was injured much of the first half of the season and has been struggling to stay on the field. He has been very inconsistent, looking like a star on one drive and being burned on the next.
Nickel cornerback Taron Johnson is solid and has been a stabilizing force at nickelback, where Cameron Lewis will also contribute. Second-year safety Cole Bishop has been the breakout star of the secondary, but fellow rookies Jordan Hancock and Sam Franklin have struggled to win a role on the defense and Buffalo had to lure greybeard Jordan Poyer out of retirement.
The Bills attempted to claim Darius Slay on waivers--but he did not report to the team. The front office and coaching staff understand that the secondary is vulnerable.
Buffalo plays man and zone coverage fairly equally and regularly have extra defensive backs on the field. They have excellent coverage linebackers in Matt Milano, Terrell Bernard, and Shaq Thompson who can match-up with tight ends and play zone defense well. Bernard has been limited this week at practice with an elbow injury and is questionable for Sunday.
Rushing the passer, the Bills (28) are one sack ahead of the Patriots (27) for the season and both squads in the bottom half of the league. However, sacks are only part of the story. Pressure rate is much more important and Buffalo (37.1%) is just behind New England (38.2%) just outside the top ten.
The Bills have veteran Joey Bosa leading the way with five sacks this season. The former Charger has only missed one game, which is remarkable considering he lasted a full season last in 2021. Robbed of his next-level explosiveness of his first few years with the Chargers due to the accumulation of injuries, he has become more of a technician and wily veteran.
Bosa should return this week from his hamstring injury, and the Bills clearly missed him desperately last week. The season-ending injury to Ed Oliver has been the biggest loss on defense as he came back from an early season ankle injury and then tore his biceps.
Gregory Rousseau remains a one-trick pony rushing the passer and hasn’t elevated his game to match his contract. A.J. Epenesa flashes pass rush prowess enough to stay on the roster, but at age 27 it appears he’s a depth piece at best who may come up with a big sack on occasion.
Inside, ageless wonder DaQuan Jones has held the fort up front with youngsters Deone Walker and T.J. Sanders. Veteran run-stuffer Jordan Phillips and washed-up Larry Ogunjobi back them up inside. The lack of interior pass rush has been an issue with this group.
Buffalo has allowed more than 250 yards passing just twice this season--in their week five loss to Drake Maye and the Patriots and last week in their shootout win over the Bengals and Joe Burrow.
The Bills--like most NFL teams--win when they win the turnover battle. The Bills went 4-0 to start the season at +3 in turnovers. They lost to New England in week five and Falcons in week six at -4 in turnovers.
Since the bye week, the Bills are +4 in turnovers in their five wins and -4 in their two losses. So if this defense is not forcing turnovers, the Bills aren’t winning in 2025.
The New England offensive line was undermanned against the Giants but still played well against a strong pass rush. With rookie left tackle Will Campbell on injured reserve, local whipping boy Vedarian Lowe stepped in and actually played pretty well. ProFootballFocus.com rated him with a solid 65.7 grade and had him allowing three hurries, no sacks and no hits on 38 snaps in pass protection.
Lowe was abysmal last season. He didn’t make any excuses last year as he was eviscerated weekly in the press, but Lowe recently revealed that he played most of 2024 with a torn labrum in his shoulder and had surgery in the offseason. In that context, it explains his lack of power in pass protection and his character suiting up for a losing team while seriously injured and fighting through the pain.
Veteran Ben Brown took over at left guard after rookie Jared Wilson missed the game. Brown held up well, and is the kind of interior back-up every team needs. He’s not the strongest or most athletic, but he can play center and guard and fill in for a game or two without much disruption. Getting the athletic Wilson back healthy is a big boost.
The Patriots went back to their “whoever is open” offensive passing attack against the Giants, to the detriment of any fantasy football owner with a New England receiver.
Hunter Henry was the top target against the Giants working against their weak middle defense. The New England tight end stepped up leading the team with four catches for 73 yards. Kayshon Boutte led the wide receiver group with four catches for 35 yards and another touchdown.
However, Mack Hollins, Stefon Diggs, and Demario Douglas all had three receptions apiece. Rookie Kyle Williams had a pretty 33-yard touchdown, and the running backs stepped up in the passing game with Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson chipping in with three receptions apiece.
Run Offense:
The Patriots continued to be inconsistent in the running game in 2025 but with Rhamondre Stevenson back to health they show no signs of stopping. For the Josh McDaniels offense, the results aren’t as important as the effect on the defense. As long as defenses are forced to react to the run, the play action game opens up big plays downfield for the passing attack.
Rookie running back TreVeyon Henderson led the team in rushing, with 11 carries for 67 yards with a long of 26 yards in the fourth quarter that effectively ended the game and let the Patriots eat time off the clock and kick a field goal to make it a three score game with less than three minutes to play.
Rhamondre Stevenson had 12 carries for 40 yards. Terrell Jennings had a 39 yard kickoff return but suffered a concussion and is out against the Bills. In fact, he will be going on injured reserve and missing the rest of the regular season. Former Browns running back D’Ernest Johnson will be the third running back against Buffalo and for the rest of the regular season.
The Bills run defense runs hot and cold. They have five games where they’ve allowed 189 or more rushing yards this season. They also have four games allowing less than 100 yards rushing including the last two weeks.
Buffalo is 28th in rushing yards allowed and 29th in yards per attempt allowed at 5.1 yards per rush. The Patriots game in week five was the only one of the four games they held opponents under 100 yards rushing that they lost. In their other three losses, the Bills allowed 210, 197 and 108 rushing yards.
Linebacker Terrel Bernard has missed two games but should be back for Sunday. With veteran and Boston College alumni Matt Milano, they make for a solid run stuffing duo usually. Veteran Shaq Thompson slid in the past two games and vastly improved the run defense in Bernard’s absence. It will be interesting to see how Buffalo splits the snaps between the two as Bernard is much better in pass defense than Thompson.
On the defensive line, Daquan Jones is one of their best run defenders, as he is strong, experienced and a handful for interior offensive linemen. Rookie Deone Walker was not highly regarded coming out of Kentucky, but at six-foot-seven and 331 lbs, the man-mountain has taken advantage of his opportunities and shows no signs of giving up his role at nose tackle.
Second-round draft pick T.J. Sanders hasn’t had the impact of Walker, but is part of the rotation inside with Jordan Phillips and Larry Ogunjobi. Phillips can still contribute on defense for 15-20 early down snaps stopping the run. Ogunjobi was brought in to help in the pass rush and has been a liability in the pass rush and run defense since returning from suspension.
For New England, Josh McDaniels is not going to abandon the running game, especially with injuries along the offensive line. The Patriots have been committed even without success to set-up play action passing. The Patriots have the sixth most rushing attempts in the league despite being just 14th in total yards and 27th in yards per attempt at 3.9.
With Rhamondre Stevenson back to full health after his toe injury allows the Patriots to have their “thunder and lightning” running back rotation. With both Stevenson and Henderson having above-average receiving skills, the duo allows the McDaniels to dial up almost any play without having to sub out the running back.
BUF Offense vs NE Defense
Buffalo’s offense has scored 30 or more points seven times in 2025. In all four losses, they scored 20 or fewer points. With their inconsistent defense, the pressure is on the offense to score enough to win.
That strategy worked in week one, beating Baltimore 41-40. It worked against Tampa Bay, outlasting them 44-32. It even worked last week, as a furious fourth quarter comeback allowed them to beat Cincinnati 39-34.
They lit up lightweights like the Jets (30-10), the Saints (31-19), earlier in the season Carolina (40-9), and the Dolphins early in the season (31-21), but struggled against stronger defenses losing to the Patriots in week five (23-20) and Houston (23-19). Add in two inexplicable and unexpected losses (Atlanta and Miami) and the Bills sit at 9-4 and are eliminated from a repeat of AFC East champions with a loss.
Josh Allen gets the headlines, and rightfully so as one of the top three quarterbacks in the NFL. He has become pin-point accurate in all three levels as a passer and is a threat running the ball as well. With the growth of running back James Cook, the Bills have been able to remove some of the pressure from Allen having to be Super-Man each week.
The Patriots have been so dependent on the defense being able to get off the field on third down and get the ball back to the offense. They are seventh in the NFL now allowing just 35.6% of third downs. After stopping the Giants three times on fourth down, the Patriots are third best in the NFL with just seven conversions on 22 fourth down attempts allowed (31.8%).
The struggle on defense in New England has remained to be the Red Zone where they rank dead last. Opponents have 19 touchdowns on 26 trips for a 73.1% conversion rate. For all the Red Zone struggles on offense that have been written about recently, the defenses’ struggles in the Red Zone is the real story.
New England played pretty well on defense against the Bills in the first matchup. The key was shutting down Cooks (15 rushes for 49 yards), although Allen was disruptive running the ball (9 rushes for 53 yards).
Tight end Dalton Kincaid has six receptions for 108 yards and Curtis Samuel and Keon Coleman had touchdown receptions. The defense only forced two punts, but two fumble recoveries and an interception kept the Bills off the scoreboard enough.
Pass Defense:
The Bills primarily line up in a three wide receiver alignment, which seems odd with three very good tight ends on the roster. They are 19th in the league in multi-tight end usage(per Sharp Football Analysis). They do use a traditional fullback with Reggie Gillam and are sixth in multiple back rate.
Like the Bills’ defense, New England prefers the extra secondary players look and prefers having multiple secondary defenders on the field (usually three cornerbacks and two safeties). The Patriots are fifth in the NFL as far as Sub Package Rate (five or more defensive backs) and any defensive alignment without their three cornerbacks on it does not bode well for the Patriots playing to their strengths.
If Buffalo were smart, they would be loading up with heavy multi-tight end sets and doubling down with the fullback. They should be playing smashmouth football and daring the Patriots to get out of their sub package and devote an extra linebacker and then attack with the tight ends in the passing game from jumbo packages.
The Bills passing offense has yet to replace Stefon Diggs. Diggs’ skill set was the perfect fit in the Buffalo offense, opening things over the middle by taking safeties with him to create holes for slot receivers and tight ends to find room. Without Diggs, the tight end trio has had to take a larger role in 2025 with Dalton Kincaid (vertical attack), Dawson Knox (zone beater) and rookie Jackson Hawes (blocker/goal line) taking on a larger role.
The wide receivers all have very specific roles as well. Gabe Davis has returned after washing out in Jacksonville and is the big boundary receiver taking snaps from second-year headache Keon Coleman. Coleman was supposed to fill that role, but maturity issues and lack of production has limited his role in what was expected to be a breakout season.
Khalil Shakir is excellent in the slot, but his lack of size and strength limits him in tight coverage as he has to have separation to be effective. Joshua Palmer has struggled with injuries and chemistry since joining in free agency from the Chargers and is still trying to settle into the deep threat role. After five catches in week one, he has yet to top two receptions in a game and has no touchdowns.
Tyrell Shavers makes up in effort what he lacks in talent. While he will never be a volume receiver, the Bills love his downfield blocking and he has continued to steal snaps as the big receiver continues to earn more snaps where his big frame helps in the running game and blocking for screens.
The Bills added veteran Brandon Cooks, who really is a depth piece behind Shakir in the slot. Although he was a boundary receiver in New England, that was almost eight years ago. Cooks is an insurance policy at this point of his career.
Running back James Cook has the ability to be a running/receiving threat like Christian McCaffrey in San Francisco. However, the Bills are reluctant to involve him in the passing game. After the week five loss to New England (no receptions), Cook has been targeted in the passing game more than three times just once (in the loss to Miami) despite his soft hands and solid route running.
The New England secondary was not seriously tested by Jaxson Dart and the Giants in their last game. The Giants had no answers through the air and other than the 30-yard touchdown when New England sent the cover-zero blitz and Slayton caught a short pass and was able to run the last twenty yards into the end zone
This week, Josh Allen brings a much higher skill level than a rookie in a broken offense. Christian Gonzalez is unlikely to follow any specific receiver. With his length and play-strength, Carlton Davis should see plenty of Gabe Davis and Keon Coleman. Marcus Jones in the slot will see Shakir and Cooks.
Covering the tight ends is the biggest headache. I still can’t figure out why Dalton Kincaid is not the high-volume focus of the offense with his ability to stretch the middle of the field. If I were running the Buffalo offense, I’d make sure Kincaid was in position to be getting 10-12 targets per game.
With interior pass rusher Milton Williams on injured reserve with a high ankle sprain and out for a while, the Patriots need Christian Barmore to be a disruptive force with inside pressure. Cory Durden, Joshua Farmer and Eric Gregory are not even close to the pass rushing force that Milton is for the Patriots. However, they need to find a way to contain Allen and keep him from escaping the pocket and running for first downs.
Harold Landry is still banged up and K’Lavon Chaisson has cooled after a strong start to the season. Whether it is fifth-round draft pick Bradyn Swinson or undrafted rookie Elijah Ponder, New England needs to get the youngsters some opportunity to get their young and fresh legs on the field and not wear out Chaisson and Landry before the postseason.
It all starts in Buffalo on the offensive line with left tackle Dion Dawkins. Dawkins has dominated at left tackle since taking over there in 2018 after being a second-round pick in 2017. Right tackle Spencer Brown is their best run blocker and should be back from injury for this game.
On the interior, former Cowboy Connor McGovern is tough and gritty. Veteran David Edwards is solid on the left side at guard, but right guard O’Cyrus Torrence is the future star at right guard. A second-round pick in 2023, he is just starting to find the consistency in his game to take the next step and reach his potential as a perennial Pro Bowl guard.
The Bills are 14th in pressure rate allowed and 15th in no blitz pressure rate per Sharp Football Analysis, While the offensive line is better in run blocking, they are more than adequate at pass protection.
Run Defense:
The Bills are going to come into Foxboro on Sunday afternoon intent on testing the New England run defense. There is no doubt about that. In week five, the Bills were shut down by Khyiris Tonga and the New England interior defenders. The run defense was springing leaks before Milton Williams went on injured reserve,
Tonga missed the Giants game, but is expected back this weekend. With Christian Barmore and Cory Durden, the Patriots have the beef up front to slow the Bills rushing attack. Edge rushers K’Lavon Chaisson and Harold Landry (who is questionable with a lingering knee injury) are solid setting the edge, although New England likes to bring in Anfernee Jennings who is one of the best edge run defenders around.
Linebacker Robert Spillane is questionable for the game and would be a huge loss if he is unable to go on Sunday. Spillane is the heart and soul of the defense in the middle handling assignments and above-average as a pass defender beyond his hard-hitting run stuffing ability. If Spillane cannot go, Jahlani Tavai and Jack Gibbens pick up more snaps.
The New England run defense has struggled the past month after being the strength of the defense for the first half of the season. The Giants (111 yards) became the sixth team to top 100 yards rushing so far in 2025 against New England joining Carolina (129 yards), Buffalo (118 yards), Tampa Bay (113 yards), the Jets (140 yards) and the Bengals (120 yards).
However, there are a few caveats to those numbers as New England won all five games. Carolina was behind 42-6 in the fourth quarter and ran for 45 yards in garbage time. Buffalo’s star running back James Cook had just 49 yards on 15 carries and it was quarterback Josh Allen (nine rushes for 53 yards) doing the damage by scrambling.
These last four games, however, there are no caveats. The Buccaneers offensive line was winning up front and making room for Sean Tucker and Rachaad White. Jets were a load with Justin Fields and Breece Hall before they inexplicably stopped using Fields as a dual threat runner.
The Bengals took advantage of New England losing Khyiris Tonga and already missing Milton Williams to pile up 120 yards on just 23 carries. Running back Chase Brown topped 100 yards rushing as the first running back to do so this season against New England. The Giants were led by former Bills running back Devin Singletary rushing for 68 yards with Tyrone Tracy adding 36 yards on the ground.
For the Patriots, Milton Williams being out obviously impacted the run defense as he has made plenty of plays penetrating in the backfield to disrupt the running game. Christian Barmore is much more effective as a pass rusher than run defender.
Nose tackle Khyiris Tonga being out was a huge loss. He had a chest injury and left early against Cincinnati and missed the Giants Monday night game. With an extra week off for the bye week, the expectation is he should be back and ready to go.
Veteran Eric Gregory and big body Jeremiah Pharms (if elevated from the practice squad again) should see time filling in for Tonga. Also, expect a continuing big role for Cory Durden as the former undrafted free agent who bounced from the Lions to the Rams to the Giants seems to have found a regular role and now is picking up extra playing time in Milton Williams’ absence.
Buffalo has a one-two punch of running back James Cook and quarterback Josh Allen. Cook has followed-up his 16 touchdown campaign last season with an increased role in 2025 as the focal point of the Buffalo offense. He is averaging 100.6 yards per game having piled up 1,308 yards in just 13 games.
Allen remains the most dangerous quarterback not named Lamar Jackson with the ball tucked and headed up field. Allen had 78 yards rushing last week on just nine carries. With 12 rushing touchdowns and 487 yards on the ground, Allen is a threat not only to extend plays and make plays in the passing game, but a threat to make an impact rushing the ball.
Buffalo will give Cook rest with running backs Ty Johnson and Ray Davis. Neither gets much work with Cook being one of the few true RB1s left in the league. If Buffalo is able to get the ground game going and keep Drake Maye and the New England offense on the bench, it would be the ideal strategy for the Bills.
For New England, the game plan will revert to their season-long strategy regardless of who is on the field. They are going to attempt to stop the Bills’ number one ranked rushing attack (most yards rushing in the NFL with just 2,051) by bottling up Cook and trying to keep Allen from using his legs as a weapon, and then make them one-dimensional and use their superior cornerback trio to get the ball back to their offense.
It all starts with stopping the run. I expect there was extra focus from acting defensive coordinator Zak Kuhr to shoring up that part of the game plan during the bye week and all of the past week at practice. If they can do that, it will go a long way towards whether they can clinch the AFC East this weekend.
Other Factors:
The Bills are used to bad weather and aren’t going to be bothered by the potential snow and winds forecast for Sunday. Veteran kicker Matt Prater may be 41 years old, but his leg remains one of the strongest and he has made 18 of 20 field goals and 38 of 41 extra points. Running back Ray Davis is the emergency kicker and has one kickoff this season.
The Bills have had three punters and currently veteran Mitch Wishnowsky has settled into the role. The Australian native nicknamed the Boomin’ Onion (last week the Scottish Hammer, this week the Boomin’ Onion) got the week off against Cincinnati just handling holding duties and not having to punt.
Wishnowsky took over the job for the last matchup against New England after Buffalo dealt with a bad performance from Brad Robbins in week one leading to his release and replacement Cameron Johnson was injured against the Saints. Wishnowsky has just one touchback in nine games and landed 12 of his 25 punts inside the 20.
Buffalo’s punt returners are last in the NFL with a 5.35 yards per return average. They are much better on kickoff returns, averaging 27.41 yards per return which is good for seventh in the NFL (per The Football Database). Ray Davis had a 97 yard kickoff return for a touchdown this season and Mecole Hardman had a 61 yard return as well.
Buffalo has cycled through four different punt returners and seem to have settled in on having Shakir handled punt returns and Davis and fellow running back Ty Johnson back to handle kick returns.
The Patriots coverage units have been solid if not spectacular. Per The Football Database, New England is fifth in the NFL in kick return coverage, allowing just 23.96 yards per return average. Punt coverage is where the worries are for the Patriots’ special teams. They have improved in the past few weeks as I started digging into the punt coverage and paying more attention. They are no longer the worst but rank 24th in punt coverage allowing 12.63 yards per return.
The Patriots are middle of the pack in kickoff returns, averaging 25.27 yards per return. Antonio Gibson was fantastic in the kick return game and had a 90-yard touchdown return against Miami. However, since he went to injured reserve the Patriots have had TreVeyon Henderson, Kyle Williams, Terrell Jennnings, Rhamondre Stevenson and Efton Chism (who is on the practice squad) as the returner with mixed results. It seems like Williams is going to get a chance to handle the job.
The number two ranked punt return unit (18.84 yards per return) in the NFL belongs to Marcus Jones as he has handled all the punts. He had an 87-yard return against Carolina for a touchdown and almost broke another as he took it 61 yards. Against the Giants, he broke open the floodgates with a 94-yard touchdown return where the blocking allowed him to run untouched until the Scottish Hammer got a fingernail on him as the last man to beat.
In the kicking game, New England Patriots rookie sixth-round draft pick kicker Andy Borregales has really settled in after a rough start to his rookie season. He missed two extra points in week two and missed a field goal in week one. Since week two he has been perfect on extra points and has missed just a pair of field goals. Borregales missed a 45-yard field goal before half time with the Patriots already ahead 30-7 against the Giants but tacked on a total of four made field goals from 30 yards or less in the game as well as all three extra points.
Punter Bryce Baringer still had an inconvenient wobbler every once in a while but overall has been solid. He has just four touchbacks, has landed 17 of his 42 punts inside the 20-yard line, and is averaging 46.6 yards per punt and a net average of 39.0 per punt.
Who can tell unless he air-mails or dirt-hops a snap, but the rookie long snapper, Julian Ashby, has been fine as far as I’ve seen so far. I don’t want to jinx the kid, but if you draft a long-snapper, you expect perfection.
Game Pick:
The Patriots have been churning through bad teams all season and doing their job and simply racking up victories in games that they were favored. Other than the Bills in week five and in week ten against Tampa, they’ve played the schedule they earned as one of the worst teams over 2023 and 2024.
The Patriots are coming out of their bye week and while they’ve handled the trap games, they’re not sneaking up on the Bills this week like they did on Sunday night in week five. Buffalo is two games behind New England and feeling the sting of looking up at the Patriots in the AFC East standings after having seemingly exorcised the Brady/Belichick demons these past five years.
Yes, I know I picked against the Patriots the first time they played Buffalo, and against the Buccaneers, and warned everyone about all these trap games, but I also acknowledge that this Patriots coaching staff and team deserve a ton of credit for stepping up and winning all these games even when they were in less than impressive fashion (cough, cough, Jets, Falcons, Bengals, cough, cough).
I will be rooting for the Patriots to win an eleventh consecutive game just because of Drake “Drake Maye” Maye at quarterback. While I am picking the Bills to win, it is only because they are going to be desperate to win. If they lose, they are on the road for probably all of the playoffs.
Buffalo needs to play at home in January as they have struggled mightily on the road in the playoffs with Josh Allen and Sean McDermott. This is a road game they need, and they have three losses on the road already. They lost in Atlanta, Miami and Houston, while winning on the road only against the Jets, Carolina and Pittsburgh.
Last year they won two home playoff games and lost in Kansas City. In 2023 they won at home against Pittsburgh and lost at home to Kansas City. In 2022 the Bills beat Miami and Skylar Thompson at home and lost to the Bengals at home. In 2021 they crushed Mac Jones 47-17 in Buffalo and then went into Kansas City and lost in overtime. In 2020, Sean McDermott’s squad won two home playoff games and went into Kansas City…well, you can guess what happened! Finally, in 2019, they lost to Deshaun Watson on the road in overtime.
Buffalo is entirely capable of running the table if they beat New England with a road trip to Cleveland and then finishing up at home against the Eagles and Jets. That leaves the Patriots little wiggle room to end the season.
Again, the Patriots, while hardly battle tested, are capable of beating the Bills, especially in Foxboro. I worry about the Red Zone offense and Red Zone defense not being up to snuff and absent a big special teams play or forcing numerous turnovers again, that Josh Allen is going to find a way to pull a rabbit out of his hat this weekend.
Also, kudos to myself for making it through almost 7,500 words without making and "Drake and Josh" joke during the entire game preview.
Drake Maye--prove me wrong on Sunday afternoon!
BILLS 27 @ PATRIOTS 24
Spread: Bills -1.5: Bills
Moneyline: Bills -105, Patriots -115: Bills
O/U: 50.5: Over
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