The New England Patriots are in the AFC Championship Game and one win from reaching the Super Bowl.
Let that sink in for a second.
After an interminable wait since January 20, 2019 when they defeated Patrik Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium, the New England Patriots are back playing for the right to play in another Super Bowl.
Speaking of Kansas City, most assumed before the season that this AFC Championship game would again feature the Chiefs and one of the superstar quarterbacks in the conference such as Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, Josh Allen and the Bills, Joe Burrow and the Bengals or C.J. Stroud and the Texans.
Heck, many pundits tabbed the Steelers to have a renaissance adding future Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers to their roster. However, the Chiefs faltered long before Mahomes tore his ACL and MCL and was lost for the season and Joe Burrow tore a tendon in his toe in week two which torpedoed the Bengals’ season despite his return in week 12.
Lamar Jackson had a litany of injuries that derailed his season and the Ravens suffered a devastating loss to Pittsburgh in week 18 that saw them miss the playoffs like the Bengals and Chiefs. In their best chance without the trio of terrors that derailed them, Buffalo ended up a wild card team playing on the road as they finished second in the AFC East and fell in the playoffs.
Instead it is Drake Maye and the Patriots facing off against the Denver Broncos, who are without their quarterback from that 2024 NFL Draft class as starter Bo Nix has been sidelined with a broken bone in his ankle that required surgery this week.
Instead, the “story” about this game focuses now on Denver back-up quarterback and 2019 fourth-round draft pick Jarrett Stidham. Stidham, once assumed to be the heir apparent to Tom Brady, was the back-up as a rookie behind Brady in current offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels’ offense in 2019.
In 2020 he lost out to Cam Newton in the starting quarterback training camp battle and dropped to third-string behind Brian Hoyer to start the season. In Mac Jones’ rookie season the next year, Stidham was the forgotten quarterback staying on injured reserve past midseason due to a back injury that he had surgery on in the offseason and he fell to third-string and never played the entire season.
In 2022, Stidham was reunited with McDaniels in Las Vegas as he joined the raiders as the back-up to Derek Carr and started a pair of games at the end of the season. He joined the Broncos in free agency and backed up Russell Wilson that year, again starting at the end of the year.
He remained in Denver when Sean Payton became head coach in 2024 and lost out to Nix in another training camp battle. He has been the back-up for two seasons without attempting a single pass in two years and now is suddenly thrust into the spotlight as the starting quarterback against the team that drafted him in the AFC Championship game.
Last Week:
Last week the Patriots won in the divisional round against the Houston Texans. After having to hear about strength of schedule all season long because 31 other NFL markets can’t handle the resurgence of the New England Patriots, the Patriots’ defense bloodied and bruised two of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL in Justin Herbert and C.J. Stroud while the offense overcame a flurry of turnovers to defeat a pair of top-ten defenses.
The Texans were ahead 10-7 in this game in the second quarter after they took advantage of a short field after a botched hand-off where Drake Maye tried to run up the middle and fumbled, giving Houston the ball at the New England 27 yard line.
New England’s first touchdown came after a key 13 yard catch by Stefon Diggs on third-and-fourteen as Houston brought a cover-zero blitz on fourth-and-one and Maye found DeMario Douglas on a crossing route and with no safety he jetted into the end zone for six points.
Both defenses were aggressive, hard-hitting and made plays in the run and pass game. Both Drake Maye and C.J. Stroud turned the ball over and had short drives resulting in punts.
New England punted eight times and and lost two fumbles (they had an interception on a hail mary on the last play of the first half which was completely harmless). Houston punted five times, was intercepted four times and lost a fumble.
The Patriots had three offensive touchdowns and a Marcus Jones pick-six to account for their 28 points. Houston had the one touchdown on the short field but otherwise settled for three field goals.
Ka’imi Fairbairn nailed a 51-yard field goal as Houston just started heaving the ball downfield trying to draw defensive pass interference calls to move the ball in desperation. That cut the New England lead to 21-16 headed to the fourth quarter.
Maye targeted Kayshon Boutte twice on the drive in single-coverage against All-Pro cornerback Derek Stingley. The first was on third-and-eight as the Texans blitzed and was a blatant defensive pass interference penalty on Stingley in man-coverage that was far worse than the DPI called on Carlton Davis in coverage on the prior drive that set-up Houston in field goal range.
The second was the same play call, another go-route with man-coverage and no help as the Texans blitzed on third down again, and Maye laid out a perfect drop-in-the-bucket pass in the end zone that Boutte brought in with an amazing one-handed catch. The extra point made it 28-16 and the Patriots’ defense teed off on Stroud the rest of the way leaving that the final score.
How to Watch/Listen to the Game:
Nothing but the top teams now for the Patriots on television. This week’s game will be broadcast by CBS and can be seen locally in the greater Boston area on WBZ-TV Channel 4 and in the greater Providence, RI area on WPRI-12. The excellent Jim Nantz will handle play-by-play duties with the highly paid but horrible to listen to Tony Romo as the color analyst. Tracy Wolfson and Evan Washburn will report from the sidelines.
Nantz and Romo called the week ten game against Tampa Bay, but otherwise the greater Boston and Providence area have been spared the constant “oohs” and “ahhs” and caveman grunts instead of actual commentary--which Patriots fans can get Scott Zolak on the local broadcast anytime. Fun drinking game: take a drink every time Romo shouts out some variation of “I don’t know, Jim!” throughout the game instead of actually making a comment.
This week's game will be broadcast to a national audience on Westwood One. Ryan Radtke will call the game with former NFL star Mike Golic providing analysis. Laura Okmin will work from the sidelines. Radtke did the week five Sunday night game against the Bills and the week 16 Sunday night game against the Ravens. Hopefully the third time is a charm with Radtke calling the Patriots.
98.5 The Sports Hub serves the greater New England area as the flagship station for the Patriots Radio Network. The network partners with 32 stations across New England to broadcast the game (and WHTK-1280AM in Rochester, NY).
Play-by-play broadcaster Bob Socci, between spots hawking Bigelow Tea, will call the action along with former Patriots quarterback and Sports Hub “personality” and mid-day show host Scott Zolak, who will provide his usual unique brand of color analysis, but at least will be be a better listen than Romo!
Key Stats:
New England Patriots
The Patriots offense finished second in points scored (490) and third in yards (6,449) in 2025 (all statistics from Pro-Football-Reference.com unless otherwise noted). They averaged 6.2 yards per play on offense led by the fourth most passing yards (4,258) and 31 passing touchdowns. The running game added the sixth-most rushing yards (2,191) and 4.4 yards per rush.
The Patriots have been hurt by turnovers at times, and finished the regular season ninth in turnovers with 16. They were 18th with eight lost fumbles and fourth with just eight interceptions.
The New England defense finished fourth in points allowed (320) and eighth in yards allowed (5,019). They allowed just 5.2 yards per play and were ninth in the NFL allowing just 3,290 passing yards. They were 14th allowing 25 passing touchdowns. The run defense allowed the sixth-fewest yards (1,729) and the fourth fewest rushing touchdowns (11) while allowing 4.2 yards per rush.
New England’s defense was 19th in forcing turnovers with just 19. They were 10th in fumbles forced, with nine. They were 18th in the league with ten interceptions.
In the playoffs so far, they have outscored their opponents 44-19 over two games. Although New England turned the ball over twice against Los Angeles and three times (if you count the Hail Mary interception before halftime) against the Texans. However, the defense forced just one turnover against the Chargers, the Texans coughed it up five times as C.J. Stroud threw five interceptions.
Denver Broncos
The Broncos’ offense finished 14th in points scored (401) and tenth in yards (5,825) in 2025. They averaged 5.3 yards per play on offense and had the 16th most passing yards (3,807) and 25 passing touchdowns. The running game was also right in the middle of the pack with the 16th-most rushing yards (2,018) and averaged 4.4 yards per rush.
The Denver offense limited turnovers in 2025 with ranking 11th in the NFL with just 17 turnovers. They were sixth overall with just six lost fumbles for the season and 13th with 11 interceptions.
The Denver defense finished one spot ahead of the New England defense as third in points allowed (311) and were second in the league in yards allowed (4,730). They allowed just 4.5 yards per play and were seventh in the NFL allowing just 3,182 passing yards. They were also fourth with just 18 passing touchdowns allowed. The run defense allowed the second-fewest yards (1,548) and the fourth fewest rushing touchdowns (11) while allowing 3.9 yards per rush.
Denver’s defense was only 26th in forcing turnovers with just 14. They were 28th in fumbles recovered with four. They were 18th in the league with ten interceptions.
In the playoffs so far, they only had to play one game against Buffalo due to having the number one seed and a bye week. They outscored Buffalo 33-30 in what was a much higher scoring game than anyone anticipated. The defense forced five turnovers (three fumbles and two interceptions), easily a season-high, but still allowed the Bills to pile up 449 yards of offense, including a season-high 183 yards allowed on the ground.
The Denver offense had to step up against Buffalo, piling up 349 yards but only 70 rushing yards. However, they only had one turnover. But Bo Nix was both the leader passer (26-46-279-3-1) and rusher (12-29) for Denver in that win over Buffalo and is sidelined for the AFC Championship game.
NE Offense vs DEN Defense:
“Oh yeah, that easy schedule for the Patriots, but wait until you face a quarterback like Justin Herbert and a defense like the Chargers!”
Beat Chargers 16-3.
“Oh yeah, but wait until you face C.J. Stroud and a defense like the Texans--that’s a HISTORICAL defense!”
Beat Texans 28-16.
“Oh yeah, but wait until you face Sean Payton’s offense and the Broncos defense.
Enough already.
Look, it’s the playoffs. The only sure thing is when you have a bye week. All of these teams are good.
The Broncos have a very good defense and Vance Joseph is a mad genius who dials up blitzes and other exotic pressures. Denver plays the second-highest rate of man coverage (32.1%) and blitzes at the fifth-highest rate in the league (31.9%) per Sharp Football Analysis.
The Broncos were second in the NFL in third down defense (33.8% conversion rate), and were the top Red Zone defense (42.6% Red Zone touchdown rate allowed).
A great coach, a great scheme and a strong pass rush and one of the best coverage cornerbacks in the league in Pat Surtain Jr. This is a tough test for New England, but they are running the ball better and Drake Maye has stepped up in the second half of each game to make the big plays necessary to secure the win.
Pass Offense:
This is a strength against strength match-up as the Broncos have done well against opposing quarterbacks while the Patriots have one the best passing attacks in the NFL.
For all the criticism of the Patriots going 14-3 against weak competition, the Broncos have had their share of sub-par quarterbacks without the national media outcry that has been the storyline for New England this year.
The Broncos saw rookie Cam Ward in his first career NFL start and later faced Jake Browning before the elite Joe Flacco was brought in. They beat Justin Fields and also had Geno Smith and Kenny Pickett at quarterback when facing the Raiders (twice). They faced Davis Mills when they played the Texans and Marcus Mariota against the Commanders.
The defense was lit up by Justin Herbert and Daniel Jones early in the season. They did face Dak Prescott, Jordan Love, Trevor Lawrence and Patrick Mahomes. However, they closed out the season facing Chris Oladokun and Trey Lance.
The defense, which had started showing cracks down the stretch, really struggled last week against Josh Allen. Allen threw three touchdowns and rushed for 66 yards but his two fumbles and pair of interceptions had the Bills beating themselves in the game. Despite the turnovers, Buffalo scored 30 points on the Broncos and never punted.
Like they likely will do with the New England offense, Denver dared Buffalo to put together extended drives. Buffalo did, repeatedly, with six scoring drives of 67 or more yards. The turnovers were an interesting occurrence in the game, as Denver has struggled to create turnovers much of the season (five in the last six weeks of the season) and got five in the Divisional playoff game.
Denver brings the pass rush, Zach Allen (7 sacks) and former Jet John Franklin-Myers (7.5 sacks) bring the pressure up the middle. Even nose tackle Malcolm Roach (4 sacks) can bring the pressure. On the edge, Nik Bonitto (14 sacks) is a premier speed rusher and Jonathan Cooper (8 sacks) is solid on the other edge.
Unlike the Chargers and Texans, Allen, Franklin-Myers and Roach will stress the interior of the offensive line. That means rookie left guard Jared Wilson, center Garrett Bradbury (seemingly fine after an illness during the week caused him to miss practice time) and Michael Onwenu will be expected to hold strong in the passing game.
On the edges, Cooper and Bonitto are both a handful with speed and power moves in their arsenal. Jonah Ellis and Dondrea Tillman rotate in and both have had little dropoff as they’ve combined for 6.5 sacks. The ray of sunshine for New England? Will Campbell will see a lot of Bonitto, who stays on his side, but the smaller pass rusher is not the long-armed, hulking edge with size, speed and reach that has given him trouble all season.
In the secondary, Pat Surtain is a four time Pro Bowl and two time All Pro cornerback who was the defensive player of the year in 2024. Most teams will attack the other outside cornerback, Riley Moss. The Patriots can hope to see more of first round pick Jahdae Barron, but after numerous opportunities during the season, he has joined back-up Kris Abrams-Draine in the “do not open unless due to emergency” role.
The Broncos are without starting safety Brandon Jones in the playoffs as he tore his pectoral in week 15 and needed surgery. P.J. Locke stepped in and after a rough first game has improved. Locke had a huge interception of Josh Allen in the third quarter when it looked like Buffalo was going to drive down and take the lead and shift momentum of the game.
With New England getting Mack Hollins back, he and Kayshon Boutte should see a lot of Surtain and Moss on Sunday. New England will continue to play Kyle Williams and he’s always an option for a deep shot.
The tight ends Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper along with running backs TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson could be x-factors in the passing game. Talanoa Hufanga is a big hitter, but not strong in coverage. Both linebackers, Alex Singleton and Dre Greenlaw, struggle in man coverage.
Key Match-up: Stefon Diggs vs Ja’Quan McMillian
When Denver spent their first round draft pick this year on cornerback Jahdae Barron, it was expected he would team up with Surtain and Moss to be the most formidable cornerback group. Instead, slot cornerback Ja’Quan McMillian has kept a strangle-hold on the position. The former undrafted free agent out of East Carolina has risen from the practice squad in 2022 to impending free agency with his best season and his Divisional round interception in overtime against Buffalo has him ready to cash in during free agency.
This week, McMillian is likely to spend a lot of time opposite Diggs in the slot. Expect New England to use motion to get the match-ups and mix up the Denver secondary--they’ve had issues with bunch formations this season. Also, New England will try to get Diggs on Moss where his quickness and savvy are a big advantage.
McMillian had the interception in overtime but otherwise was the real lock-down corner against Buffalo. Buffalo used motion to get slot cornerback Khalil Shakir matched up on anyone but McMillian to great success.
Run Offense:
Last week Buffalo’s James Cook ran 24 times for 117 yards while quarterback Josh Allen added another 66 yards rushing. Fortunately for Denver, both players lost fumbles and swung momentum Denver’s way multiple times during the game. Denver had struggled forcing fumbles during the season, so it was a surprise seeing the ball on the ground so often.
Of course, that has been the case with New England as well. However, the likely culprit, Rhamondre Stevenson, has not been to blame. Instead, it has been quarterback Drake Maye with the ball security issues. After seeing Buffalo’s performance last week, Maye has to take better care of the football on Sunday afternoon in Denver.
Stevenson had 70 yards on just 16 carries against the strong Texans defensive front and seems to be hitting his stride after a midseason injury slowed him. TreVeyon Henderson had a rough game, with just 25 yards rushing on 12 carries. New England seemed intent on running delayed hand-offs against the aggressive Texans front seven, but they never seemed to work for them.
Inflating the Denver defense’s run stats is the fact, like the Patriots, their strength of schedule had them facing some teams that were among the worst running the football. The Raiders, Packers, Chargers, Commanders, Texans, Jaguars, and Chiefs all ranked in bottom half of the yards before contact per running back rush, and Denver’s defense feasted on these weaker blocking teams.
Linebackers Alex Singleton, Justin Strnad and Dre Greenlaw are tasked with the run defense along with big Malcolm Roach and D.J. Jones up front. With their aggressive pass rush, teams can have success with speed to the outside, which seems to indicate Henderson could have a chance to break a long run.
Talanoa Hufanga is much better in run support than pass coverage, so establishing the run game to get him sprinting to the line of scrimmage for play action could lead to some big gains and open tight ends or running backs.
Key Match-up: TreVeyon Henderson vs Nik Bonitto and Jonathan Cooper
TreVeyon Henderson has struggled in the playoffs after seemingly taking the lead running back role during midseason. He has just 52 yards rushing on 21 carries in two games. Also, in the passing game, he has two receptions for just seven yards.
Henderson has game-breaking speed and this may be a match-up he can take advantage of running to the outside. Both Bonitto and Cooper love to loop wide with speed to get into the backfield and aren’t necessarily in position to set the edge in the run game. In those circumstances, Henderson could well be on his way to a footrace to the end zone.
NE Defense vs Opponent Offense:
The national media have once again disrespected the New England defense in the aftermath of the Divisional round. It has not been a story of, “New England’s defense stops star young quarterbacks Justin Herbert and C.J. Stroud” but instead “Herbert and Stroud stunk for no reason letting the lucky Patriots win.”
A lot of that is due to the defense. Mike Vrabel, as a former defensive coordinator, will get a lot of credit, but inside linebackers coach Zak Kuhr. Kuhr, stepping in with Terrell Williams away from the team dealing with prostate cancer treatment, has been excellent at dialing up a game plan each week to slow down an 11 win team and 12 win team in the first two rounds of the playoffs.
Denver won 14 games and has one of the brightest offensive minds in the NFL in Sean Payton. He has his hand-picked offensive coordinator, Joe “Grandson of Vince” Lombardi. Lombardi started as an offensive assistant with Payton in New Orleans in 2007 and other than a few stints as offensive coordinator in Detroit for Jim Caldwell and in Los Angeles for Brandon Staley, Lombardi has been attached to the hip of Payton.
The Broncos’ offense is not of the Patriots’ caliber. They have depended upon their defense keeping games close and finding a way to win with some late game heroics from Bo Nix. How that will work with Jarrett Stidham under center against a New England offense that’s allowed just one touchdown in two games (and that was with a short field).
Pass Defense:
The Patriots are potentially short-handed at edge rusher with starter and sack leader Harold Landry ruled out with his ongoing knee injury. The good news is that starting linebackers Robert Spillane (hand injury) and Christian Ellis (hip injury) are off the injury report. In addition, starting cornerback Carlton Davis cleared concussion protocol and was removed from the injury report.
The story of the week is Denver having to start Jarrett Stidham with starting quarterback Bo Nix out with a broken bone in his ankle. Stidham has not thrown a pass in a regular season game since in the past two seasons in Denver. He is the ultimate wild card.
New England will continue their trend of bringing pressure and disguising looks just as they have done throughout the playoffs against Justin Herbert and C.J. Stroud to great effect. Stroud threw four interceptions last week completing just 20 of 47 attempts and finishing with a 20.0 passer rating.
The week prior, Herbert failed to reach the end zone while finishing with 120 net yards passing as he completed 19 of 31 attempts for 159 yards while being sacked six times for 39 yards lost and finishing with a 74.5 passer rating.
With Christian Gonzalez, Carlton Davis and Marcus Jones blanketing opposing wide receivers throughout the playoffs, the Broncos will have a tough test against the New England secondary. The Patriots will face Courtland Sutton who with the arrival of Bo Nix and Sean Payton has emerged as their top target.
Sutton is not a big play receiver with breakaway speed, but he is six-foot-four and knows how to use his body to shield the ball from defenders. His chemistry with Nix was apparent, but with Stidham he is needed as his security blanket on third downs.
Broncos’ second-year wide receiver Troy Franklin has been their clear number two target all season and is questionable with a hamstring injury after leaving the game last week and being limited in practice throughout this week. If he can go, the long and lean speedster will be counted on to be the vertical target for the strong-armed Stidham.
Young wide receivers Marvin Mims and Pat Bryant had to step up last week. Bryant left the game with a concussion but was cleared to play. Old friend and tight end sized wide receiver Lil’Jordan Humphrey has been pressed into service lately due to the injuries.
Denver has veteran tight end Evan Engram as their receiving tight end with starter Adam Trautman handling more of a blocking role. Running back RJ Harvey is a better receiver than runner and back-up Tyler Badie chips in on third downs. Fullback Adam Prentice is the last option in the passing game if the blocker is on the field.
Key Match-up: DTs Christian Barmore and Milton Williams vs Gs Ben Powers and Quinn Meinerz
New England is going to have to generate pressure at some point without blitzing. Without Landry, the Patriots are at a disadvantage on the edge as Denver has two excellent tackles in Garett Bolles on the left side and former 49er Mike McGlinchey on the right side. Pressure is going to have to come up the middle and that means Barmore and Williams will have to earn those hefty paychecks.
Right guard Quinn Meinerz is one of the better interior offensive linemen in the NFL (this is a strong offensive line in Denver) and only allowed two sacks and had just three penalties to give him the number total ProFootballFocus.com grade of 90.9 for all guards. While he tops out in the run game, he ranks “only” 20th in the pass blocking.
On the left side, Ben Powers is the liability. The veteran had a 62.4 ProFootballFocus.com grade which was 39th in the league. His run blocking was better than his pass blocking, but neither was great. Both Barmore and Williams need to take advantage of these guards when possible.
The interior offensive line may get a boost for Denver as starting center Luke Wattenberg was designated to return from injury reserve this week and is questionable to play. That is good for the Broncos because back-up center Alex Forsythe is questionable. A disaster for Denver would be both being out and having to turn to recently signed practice squad center Sam Mustipher.
Run Defense:
The New England defense has returned to their early season run stuffing ways to great success. The Chargers rushed for just 87 yards in the Wild Card game and the Texans managed just 48 in the divisional round.
Those numbers are worse considering Justin Herbert had 57 of those 87 yards running for his life and C.J. Stroud had 11 of those 48 yards on scrambles. Neither the Chargers or Texans were able to muster any kind of running game.
Denver was hoping to get their lead running back J.K. Dobbins and his hard running style back but he was ruled out for the AFC Championship game. Dobbins injured his foot earlier this season after ten games in which he rushed for 772 yards (5.0 yards per rush) and was placed on injured reserve.
RJ Harvey, the rookie second-round draft pick is a smaller back (five-foot-eight and 205 lbs) and is more of a receiving option and home run hitter than between-the-tackles pounder. Thrust into the lead role, he has struggled averaging just 3.7 yards per rush. Behind him, Jaleel McLaughlin is even smaller than Harvey, and isn’t expected to have a large role in the game plan.
The concern for New England’s defense in the running game this postseason has been quarterbacks scrambling with Justin Herbert being the leading rusher for the Chargers in the Wild Card game and last week C.J. Stroud had the longest rush for the Texans last year.
Jarrett Stidham does not have the running ability of Bo Nix and that is a piece of the Denver running game that will be missing on Sunday. Since Dobbins was injured, the Broncos’ run game has not been the same and Nix carried more of the load and he was Denver’s leading rusher last week against Buffalo.
If this were a silly preview that had checkmarks for each unit matching up, there’d be a huge checkmark for the resurgent New England run defense with the struggling Denver run offense being a big disadvantage.
Key Match-up: NT Khyiris Tonga vs Cs Luke Wattenberg/Alex Forsythe/Sam Mustipher
As much as the return of Wattenberg would help Denver, having to roll out Forsythe or especially Mustipher could derail the running game for the Broncos. Tonga’s return to health along with a fresh defensive tackle Cory Durden alongside linebackers Robert Spillane and Christian Ellis has revitalized the New England run defense.
Tonga is huge, penetrates well, and the pending free agent is earning himself a huge paycheck this offseason. Ellis and Spillane have reaped the rewards of Tonga occupying space and letting them penetrate into the backfield and blow up the run game. If Tonga overpowers whoever is out there for Denver, it puts even more pressure on Stidham and the passing game.
Other Factors:
The Broncos always have an advantage in elevation with the game played at “Insert Sponsor I don’t care about” at Mile High Stadium. It is a simple plan for the Patriots to mitigate the advantage and that is to keep their defense fresh with strong third down play and long drives from the offense. Of course, that’s easier said than done.
Sean Payton brought in former New Orleans kicker Will Lutz and he has hit 87.5% of his field goals and all 39 extra point tries this season. New England counters with rookie Andres Borregales who shook off a rough start and has made 84.4% of his field goals and 53 of 55 field goals. Both are capable of making kicks out to 60 yards in Denver.
The punters for both units have enjoyed low workloads. Bryce Baringer occasionally lets off a wounded duck but has been solid overall and been consistent in the cold weather in the playoffs. Denver has rookie sixth-round draft pick and Australian punter Jeremy Crawshaw booming punts. His only issue is occasionally outkicking coverage, which he has to be careful of this week.
The coverage units for both teams are excellent as Brendan Schooler from New England and Devon Key from Denver are two of the best in the game. Key earned All Pro on special teams this season which was Schooler’s honor last year in addition to making the Pro Bowl.
Marcus Jones is clearly a top punt return threat and his fearlessness in returning almost any kick makes him a weapon, Denver can counter with the explosive Marvin Mims returning both punts and kicks. As far as coaches, Jeremy Springer has shown why he was the only holdover from the previous administration while Denver rolls with former URI Ram Darren Rizzi, simply the best special teams coordinator of this century.
This game is great because both teams have great coaches not only on special teams but on both sides of the ball. Mike Vrabel has been fantastic and so has Sean Payton. The New England defense and the Denver offense both are considered extensions of the head coaches. Vance Joseph is a phenomenal defensive mind and his unit faces the innovative Josh McDaniels offense.
Game Pick:
The Patriots and Broncos are very similar teams. Both have an all-world young cornerback highlighting their defense. While the Broncos may have a better pass rush, the Patriots’ defense has shown it can bring pressure, create turnovers, make stops on third down and was a top-ten unit for a reason.
On offense, two innovative offensive minds in Sean Payton and Josh McDaniels makes for a pair of fun offenses to watch. New England has a clear advantage in the running game with Henderson and Stevenson, and neither team has a stable of big-name wide receivers. Both teams are strong on special teams as well.
The biggest mismatch is at the most important position. If Bo Nix were healthy, I’d still pick the Patriots, but in a close game and Vegas oddsmakers would have the spread at basically a pick’em, which is an advantage to the road team.
However, Jarrett Stidham, despite the arm strength, despite the experience running the offense in training camp and running scout teams, is just not going to be an equal to the best quarterback in the NFL this season in “should be MVP” Drake Maye. Maye gives the Patriots a big advantage, as he has been against the Chargers and Texans.
In the playoffs against loaded defenses, he has made adjustments and done enough to make big plays to win the game. Bo Nix pulled out some magic in Denver, but he’s out and Jarrett Stidham, the career back-up who blew his chance to start in 2020 losing out in a training camp battle to a washed up Cam Newton, just does not have the skills to put up enough points against the Patriots.
The National media has jumped on the Jarrett Stidham and Sean Payton magic train to derail their fervent desire not to see New England in the Super Bowl again, I get it and understand it. But the fact is that Denver needs an otherworldly performance from a defense that just gave up 30 points to an offense not as good as New England’s and is playing a back-up quarterback who hasn’t thrown a pass in a game since the 2023 season.
PATRIOTS 24 @ BRONCOS 13
Spread: Patriots -4.5: Patriots
Moneyline: Patriots -244, Opponent +199: Patriots
O/U: 42.5: Over
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