The New England Patriots’ closed out their unexpected, unprecedented and unbelievable 2025 NFL regular season notching win number 14 of the season. After back-to-back 4-13 seasons, seeing the greatest Head Coach of all time fired, first-year head coach Jerod Mayo a one-and-done, Mike Vrabel came in and changed the culture and made football fun again in New England.
The Patriots finished strong with a 38-10 win over the Miami Dolphins one week after a 42-10 win over the New York Jets the week prior. Drake Maye may not have finished with another near perfect game like against New York, but he was efficient as he let AFC Offensive Player of the Week Rhamondre Stevenson carry the load.
With New England resting some dinged-up players, they also got starting left tackle Will Campbell and defensive tackle Milton Williams back and on the field to shake off some rust before the playoffs.
Now the second season begins. For New England, they were last in a playoff game in January 2022 after finishing 10-7 and as a Wild Card team in Mac Jones’ rookie season. The Patriots went into Buffalo and…got the wheels blown off in what was Bill Belichick’s last playoff game 47-17. It was 27-0 before Nick Folk hit a field goal before half time.
The Bills officially ended any chance of a New England return to greatness in the post-Brady era as Buffalo had seven straight touchdown drives before taking a knee inside two minutes. Jones threw an interception on the Patriots’ first drive of the game and first drive of the second half as the Patriots were completely outclassed.
Buffalo is in the playoffs this year as well, but they travel as the Wild Card team with the Patriots having won the AFC East and playing at home against the seventh seeded Chargers. Buffalo has to go against the red-hot Jacksonville Jaguars in Duval County.
The loss to Buffalo in week 15 has turned out to be the wake-up call this Patriots team desperately needed after they had ripped off ten straight wins going into the bye week after a 1-2 start to the season.
The Patriots, after blowing their 21-0 and 24-7 leads against the Bills in week 15, had a much-needed come-from-behind win against Baltimore on the road on a Sunday night and then thoroughly dominated a pair of inferior AFC East teams both on the road and at home in back-to-back weeks to close out the regular season.
While the ten-game winning streak was a great story, the Patriots were lucky to escape with wins multiple times against non-playoff teams during that streak as games against New Orleans, Atlanta, Cincinnati and Tampa Bay were all games that they really should have lost considering how they played in those games.
At 14-3, they finished as the number two seed in the AFC behind the 14-3 Denver Broncos for the top seed in the AFC due to tiebreakers. Who would have known that four months later that week one loss to the Raiders would come back and bite the Patriots and cost them a bye and the top seed?
Whatever happened in the regular season, it doesn’t matter any more other than seeding for who plays at home. The Patriots are 0-0 just like everyone else who made the playoffs and the only thing that matters is the sixty minutes on Sunday night between the white lines in Gillette Stadium when the Chargers come to Foxboro.
Last Week:
The Patriots finished strong as the calendar turned to 2026 and they sent Miami head coach Mike “I’m so much smarter than all of you” McDaniel into the head coaching trash bin with a 38-10 win. After an inspired start with seventh-round pick and former Longhorns star quarterback Quinn Ewers, the Patriots turned up the heat in the second half and the Dolphins packed their bags for the offseason.
Drake Maye threw for 191 yards while completing 14 of 18 passes and throwing a touchdown to Stevenson and not turning the ball over. He added 41 yards on five rushes. More importantly, the second-year quarterback was not sacked for the first time in his 30 games played in the NFL.
Stevenson carried the load on Sunday helping what turned into a close game into a blowout. He had 131 yards on just seven carries including ripping off a 56 yard rumble. He added two receptions for 22 yards and three total touchdowns.
The Patriots jumped out to a 14-0 lead in the first quarter. Miami was playing without defensive captain Minkah Fitzpatrick but otherwise had their full complement of starters on defense.
Stevenson set the tone with three carries for 70 yards to start the game and TreVeyon Henderson finished the touchdown drive with a five yard run to take a 7-0 lead without Maye having to throw a pass.
The Dolphins engaged in the traditional “Drive down the field on the Patriots defense on the first drive of the game” that seemingly every team did in 2025. However, the Dolphins--with offensive genius Mike McDaniel on the sidelines--still managed to screw it up. On fourth-and-one at the eight yard line, Ewers could not connect with Cedrick Wilson and they turned the ball over on downs.
New England marched down the field with TreVeyon Henderson rushing four times for 24 yards and a sweet flea-flicker that resulted in a 35-yard completion to rookie Efton Chism. Stevenson punched it in from the two-yard line on a direct snap with Maye out wide and the first quarter ended with New England ahead 14-0.
Credit to the Dolphins for coming back in the second quarter. Running back Jaylen Wright, who was starting in place of an injured Devon Achane, had five rushes for 20 yards and Ewers connected with Malik Washington for a two-yard touchdown.
The Patriots and Dolphins traded three-and-outs and when the Patriots went three-and-out again (punting from their own 40 on fourth and one), the Dolphins made a big mistake as Jaylen Wright fumbled and New England took over in Miami territory. Unfortunately, the Patriots could not capitalize and settled for a 38-yard field goal, which Zach Sieler blocked.
The Dolphins returned the blocked kick into New England territory and the defense stepped up forcing a field goal attempt with just beyond 30 seconds before the half. After Riley Patterson connected from 52 yards out, The Patriots took over with less than 30 seconds and their lead cut to four points.
Maye led New England into Miami territory and rookie Andres Borregales connected from 59 yards to go into the half ahead 17-10.
Miami came out in the second half and drove into the red zone before Ewers tossed a terrible interception that Jaylinn Hawkins appeared to be the intended target. Eweres had a pair of Dolphins in the end zone and threw the ball between them both letting Hawkins stop and intercept him in the end zone.
That was it for the Dolphins. Instead of tying the game on this Red Zone trip, the Patriots took over and after a big pass play outside the pocket by Maye finding Hunter Henry, it was back to Rhamondre. On third-and-two, Maye threw a strike to a wide open Stevenson.
Ewers and the offense were bottled up by the re-invigorated New England defense and on the next drive Stevenson was back in the end zone. The Dolphins did nothing on defense and Maye was able to find Stefon Diggs to get back in the Red Zone and Henderson pounded the rock in form the two yard line to make it 38-10.
How to Watch/Listen to the Game:
This week’s game is at 8:00 PM on Sunday night and will be broadcast on NBC. In the greater Boston area, that is WBTS NBC10 and on WJAR-10 in the greater Providence area. The powerhouse Sunday Night Football team will be back in Foxboro with Mike Tirico and the always polarizing Cris Collinsworth with Melissa Stark on the sidelines.
Sunday's game will be broadcast to a national audience on Westwood One Radio. Tom McCarthy, the voice of the Philadelphia Phillies alongside former Falcons and Seahawks long-snapper Derek Rackley.
As always, Sunday’s game will be broadcast locally on the radio by Bob Socci on calling the play-by-play action along with former Patriots quarterback and Sports Hub “personality” Scott “Zo” Zolak providing bewildering noises, grunts and assorted yelps that somehow passes for game analysis around here.
Key Stats:
New England Patriots
The Patriots finished the regular season 8-0 on the road and 6-3 at Gillette Stadium in the 2025 regular season. The Patriots scored 490 points for the season, the second-highest in the NFL (28.8 per game). They totalled 6,449 yards, which was good for third-most in the league (all stats from Pro-Football-Reference.com, unless otherwise noted).
The efficiency in the passing game stood out, as the Patriots were first in the NFL with 7.7 net yards per pass attempt. They were 23rd in pass attempts, but fourth in passing yards and fifth in passing touchdowns (31).
The Patriots almost had a perfect 50/50 split of pass and running plays on offense, as they passed for 4,258 yards on 502 attempts and rushed for 2,191 yards on 494 attempts. They were fourth in passing yards and sixth in rushing yards.
On defense, the Patriots finished fourth in points allowed (18.8 per game) with 320 and were eighth in yards allowed with 5,019. They finished the season 13th in rushing yards per attempt, at 4.2. The Patriots were ninth in passing yards allowed, with 3,290, and sixth in rushing yards allowed, with 1,729. New England was 14th in passing touchdowns allowed (25) and fourth in rushing touchdowns allowed (11).
Despite the raw numbers looking so good, the Patriots struggled in the red zone on both sides of the ball. On offense, the Patriots scored 36 red zone touchdowns on 63 trips, for a 57.1% touchdown rate good for 17th in the league. On defense, despite some improvement against the Jets and Dolphins in the final two weeks of the season, they finished 30th in the NFL allowing 27 of 40 (67.5%) opponent’s red zone trips to result in a touchdown.
Both the offense and defense have excelled in 2025 on third-down and fourth-down. The offense was sixth on third down, converting 85 of 198 third-downs (42.9%). On fourth-down, they were second in the NFL with a 72% conversion rate going 18 of 25.
On defense, they were 12th in third-down percentage allowing only a 38.5% conversion rate (77 of 200). On fourth down, the defense was second-best in the NFL allowing only 10 fourth-down conversions on 30 attempts (33.3%).
Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers are rolling into Foxboro having finished 20th in the NFL in points scored with 368 (21.6 per game). However, they were 12th in the league in total yards having piled up 5,675 total yards.
The Chargers, despite their reputation as a ground-and-pound Jim Harbaugh team, had 569 passing attempts (13th in the NFL) and 3,608 yards (18th in the league). However, they did have 26 passing touchdowns (11th) but 14 interceptions (24th). In net yards per pass attempt they finished 25th, at 5.7 yards per attempt.
In the rush offense, the Chargers finished 12th in the NFL with 2,067 yards on the 15th most attempts (466). They were 13th in yards per attempt at 4.4 yards per rush. Los Angeles had only ten rushing touchdowns on the season, which was 25th in the NFL.
The defense has been the strength of the Chargers in 2025 They are ninth in points allowed with 340 (20.0 per game) and fifth in yards allowed with only 4,849. They create turnovers, ranking seventh in the NFL, and those takeaways tend to be interceptions as they third in the NFL with 19 picked off passes.
That pass defense engineered by defensive coordinator Jesse Minter finished the regular season fifth in passing yards allowed with just 3,058 yards and just 16 passing touchdowns (3rd in the NFL). They are ninth in net yards per pass allowed with just 5.6 yards per attempt.
The Chargers have been solid in run defense as well, they finished the regular season eighth in the NFL allowing just 1,791 yards rushing. They were 16th in the league in rushing touchdowns allowed with 16 ground touchdowns. Despite the fewer yards allowed, Los Angeles were only 18th in yards per rush allowed at 4.3.
The Chargers thrived on third downs on both sides of the ball. On offense, they were third in the NFL converting 45.8% of their third downs (115 of 251). On defense, they were fifth in the league allowing just 35.2% conversion rate (79 of 199). Fourth downs were more middle of the pack: Los Angeles was 17th on offense for fourth down conversions at 57.1% on offense (12 of 21) and 12th on defense at 52.0% allowed on defense (13 of 25).
In the red zone, the defense was fantastic, ranking fourth overall and only allowing touchdowns on 23 of 49 trips by their opponents (46.9%); however, the offense struggled all season long in the red zone converting just 27 of 57 trips (47.4%) with a touchdown.
NE Offense vs LAC Defense:
When the Chargers’ defense is discussed, it is the pass rushers and their superstar safety. Edge rusher Tuli Tuipulotu should be a big name, as the 2023 second-round draft pick came into the NFL out of USC after a junior season where he had 22 tackles for a loss and 13.5 sacks earning him Pac-12 defensive player of the year.
Tuipulotu’s brother, Marlon, played at USC and briefly in the NFL. His cousin is former 49ers and current Denver Broncos safety Talanoa Hufanga. Based on his play at USC and size, strength and athleticism, it was a surprise he fell to pick 54 overall (and, yes, the Patriots picked defensive end Keion White eight spots ahead of Tuipulotu).
Like Keion White, Tuipulotu came with the “tweener” label on him and likely was a large part of his fall out of the top-50 picks. He isn’t ideal length and heavier than the average NFL edge rusher, but it has not slowed him at all in the NFL. Los Angeles has received great value from Tuipulotu and with veteran Khalil Mack mentoring him, he is now in position to command a big extension.
The other big name on defense (other than Mack, the 34-year old who had 5.5 sacks this season) is Derwin James. James was the Chargers’ first-round draft pick in the 2018 NFL Draft and other than his foot and knee injury that robbed him of all but five games between the 2019 and 2020 season, he has been a star and earned five Pro Bowl nominations as well as being named to four All-Pro teams..
James moves all over the defense for the Chargers: he is one of the best blitzers, he can tackle and cover in man-coverage on slot receivers and tight ends. He lines up near the line of scrimmage and 15 yards deep. Basically, James is a Swiss army knife for the defense and is used at strong safety, free safety, nickel cornerback and linebacker.
James impacts the running game and passing game in so many different ways. His ability to play as a linebacker allows the Chargers to match-up with heavy formations without substituting and his coverage ability gives Los Angeles the ability to match-up spread formations with ease.
For the New England offense, finding number forty-five (Tuipulotu) and number three (James) has to be the first action in order to figure out how to attack the Chargers.
Pass Offense:
For as much as the Patriots are denigrated in the press for their lack of pass rush, and the Chargers are praised for bringing pressure, the advanced statistics don’t bear that opinion out at all. New England’s defense had a 38.4% pressure rate (12th in the NFL) while the Chargers came in at 16th with a 36.9% pressure rate per Sharp Football Analysis.
Switching to “No Blitz Pressure Rate”, the Patriots jump up to 11th overall with a 35.8% rate and the Chargers are 14th at 36.9%. Of course, the Chargers are very picky about when they blitz and who they blitz. They blitz at the fourth-lowest rate in the NFL at just 18.9%.
Their defense prefers to generate pressure with their front and flood the secondary. Los Angeles was sixth in the NFL in “sub package rate” using Derwin James as that chess piece and allowing them to not get stuck in heavy packages. The Chargers are third in the NFL in “Light Box Rate” where they have basically dared opposing offenses to run against them and depend on their superior tackling ability.
Los Angeles played the second-fewest man coverage rate in the NFL at 12.9%--only the Panthers played more zone coverage. The Chargers were in zone coverage 81.3% of the defensive snaps. Playing two-high zone coverage so much, the Chargers are vulnerable across the middle of the defense, which should mean a heavy dose of targets for Stefon Diggs and tight end Hunter Henry.
The Chargers will allow opposing offenses to take the check-downs and work underneath all night long. They depend on the defense either making a play like a tackle short of the sticks on third down or pressure reaching the quarterback to stop the drive.
Tuipulotu brings the pass rush, but he is hardly the only one. Mack may be 34 years-old, but he still is one of the best technicians. Behind the duo is Odafe Oweh, who came over from Baltimore at the trading deadline and added 7.5 sacks in just 12 games in Los Angeles. Veteran Bud Dupree, questionable to play Sunday night, also has a pair of sacks.
The defensive line is not known for pushing the pocket and generating pressure. Teair Tart, Da’Shawn Hand and rookie Jamaree Caldwell are more there to occupy linemen to let the linebackers work. Daiyan Henley and Derwin James can bring the heat if necessary.
One defensive lineman who has brought the pressure is last year’s fourth-round draft pick Justin Eboigbe, the big body from Alabama. Eboigbe had six sacks this season after a quiet rookie season where he barely was on the field. He added 20 pounds over the offseason and has carved out a role as an interior pass rusher.
Beyond Derwin James, the rest of the Los Angeles secondary spends a lot of time on the field as the defense prefers light boxes (six or less defensive linemen/linebackers). Veteran Elijah Molden has been dealing with a hamstring injury for some time, but is expected to play on Sunday night and has been a key player for them all season.
Tony Jefferson is a ten-year veteran who started the season on the practice squad and has been vitally important in Los Angeles. Yes, he’s the one who knocked out Tyquan Thornton in the first Chiefs game and then flipped off the fans and was ejected. But he went from not being on the roster to playing almost 50% of the snaps.
The Chargers traded away safety Alohi Gilman for Oweh, opening the playing time for Jefferson and rookie R.J. Mickens. Mickens has played about 30% of the snaps and has been dinged up, but is athletic and is off the injury report.
Expect the Chargers to come out and try to bully the New England receivers. Jefferson, James and Molden are going to allow those short receptions and then try to jar the ball loose with big hits. The secondary is very hard-hitting and that will be elevated in the playoffs.
The linebackers for the Chargers hit hard as well.
Daiyan Henley (he’s number zero on the Chargers’ defense) plays like he’s a bullet shot out of a gun. He led the team in tackles and added 3.5 sacks as a blitzer. While the Chargers don’t blitz much, they are very effective when they do. James gets the attention as a blitzer, but Henley is the one more likely to be coming.
Denzel Perryman was suspended for the last two games of the season for a helmet-to-helmet hit on Cowboys’ receiver Ryan Flournoy while he was on the ground. Like any Harbaugh led team, they are going to try to bully on defense, and the New England offense needs to punch back.
For New England, they need to match that intensity from the Chargers’ defense and come out punching. With an aggressive, zone-defense like the Chargers run, the Patriots have experience in 2025 (despite all the whining in the media about the easy schedule) with these defenses.
After Buffalo played a ton of two-high zone schemes against Maye in the second half of their December showdown and slowed him in the second half of that game taking away the deep passing attack, Maye struggled mightily with two safeties deep and tight man coverage.
Although Maye’s struggle was due to not taking what the defense offered, the Ravens definitely took note of those struggles and attempted to replicate what Buffalo did by mixing the zone and man coverage and leaving the safeties deep to take away the big play ability from the offense.
Maye went out and lit up the Ravens secondary throwing for 380 yards and completing 70.5% of his passes and a pair of touchdowns and followed that up last week completing 90.5% of his passes for 256 yards and five touchdowns against the Jets before taking a break midway through the third quarter. Against Miami, he added 191 yards and a touchdown completing 77.8% of his passes and a touchdown.
If the Chargers are looking for a blueprint to stop Drake Maye and the New England passing attack, they’re going to have to do better than just copying Buffalo’s second-half game plan.
Stefon Diggs has playoff experience and is expected to be the leader of this young wide receiver room in the playoffs with Mack Hollins placed on injured reserve. Kayshon Boutte is fighting through a hamstring injury and popped up on the injury report this week and is questionable against Los Angeles.
Rookies Kyle Williams and Efton Chism have stepped up in the last quarter of the season while DeMario Douglas continues to have a small role on the offense. New England elevated practice squad wide receiver Jeremiah Webb from the practice squad.
Tight ends Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper both have playoff experience as well. But playoff experience only goes so far. The Patriots have a lot of young players, but playoff experience is not the end-all be-all.
What matters most is how those young players on offense respond. Drake Maye has been amazing all season long. The stats are great, but the leadership and growth throughout the season have led them to this point where they are the number two seed and hosting a playoff game.
Maye finished with a league-leading 72.0% completion percentage, 8.9 yards per pass attempt, 9.46 adjusted yards gained per attempt, 113.5 quarterback rating and 77.2 QBR. He also finished with 4,394 yards passing, 31 touchdowns and just 8 interceptions.
Jared Wilson is expected to return from his concussion and be back at left guard next to fellow rookie left tackle Will Campbell, who returned last week and was solid in his first game back. The question marks this week on the offensive line are center Garrett Bradbury and right tackle Morgan Moses, who both were held out of practice mid-week due to illness.
Although both are expected to play, tight end eligible and swing tackle Thayer Munford has missed practice time with a knee injury and is officially questionable to play on Sunday night. As he has been so vital for the running game’s resurgence as the tight end in jumbo sets, his loss would be a blow to the offense.
Run Offense:
Rookie running back TreVeyon Henderson was the primary back as he took advantage of an injury to Rhamondre Stevenson to have two games with over 140 yards rushing as a rookie. The second-round draft pick had 911 yards and nine touchdowns on the ground in 2025 with a number of highlight-reel explosive runs while also being stronger than anticipated between the tackles.
Fortunately, Rhamondre Stevenson returned to health after his own injury struggles this month and he has stepped up with a number of key plays down the stretch. It started in Baltimore where Stevenson had a 23-yard catch and the game-winning 21-yard touchdown run late in the fourth quarter to complete the comeback win in Baltimore.
Stevenson continued his strong play versus the Jets adding a pair of touchdowns early in the game by pounding the rock in from a yard out in the first quarter and adding a 22-yard touchdown grab while totalling 47 yards rushing on just eight carries to go along with five receptions for 55 yards.
Last week in Miami, he took over the game from the opening drive by ripping off a nine-yard run, a 56-yard rumble and then let Henderson finish off the drive with a five yard touchdown run. Stevenson followed it up on the next drive by vulturing the touchdown as the Patriots drove down to the two yard line.
In the second half, he added a 20-yard run on their opening drive before making a beautiful 15-yard touchdown reception. He followed that up with a 35-yard touchdown run on the next drive before taking off the rest of the afternoon.
Back-up running back D’Ernest Johnson got on the field in garbage time the last few weeks but he finished with just 25 yards on 13 carries after being elevated from the practice squad after Antonio Gibson and Terrell Jennings were injured. More importantly, with the Patriots thin at wide receiver he stepped up as the primary kick returner down the stretch and had five returns for 128 yards (25.6 yards per return).
The Chargers’ run defense has had some issues in 2025, but overall the unit can be strong after years of being an Achilles heel in Los Angeles. A big part of that has been the defensive line, as the Chargers stay in nickel and dime defenses more often than most teams.
Rookie third-round draft pick out of Oregon, Jamaree Caldwell stepped in to handle the nose tackle role with 2024 starter Otito Ogbonnia and is massive, weighing in at close to 350 lbs and unmovable in the middle of the defensive line. He has relegated Ogbonnia to a back-up role since his midseason return.
Teair Tart and Da’Shawn Hand are the other big bodies making life difficult for the opposing interior offensive linemen. Both are 300 lbs plus and give the Chargers almost 1,000 lbs of beef in the middle of their defense. Eboigbe is often on the field in passing downs, not a run stopper.
On the edge, Mack, Tuipulotu and Oweh are okay at the edge but all often end up further in the backfield keying on the quarterback. It’s the pair of inside linebackers, Daiyan Henley and Denzel Perryman who are cleaning up in the run game.
Tart, Hand and Caldwell occupy the blockers and keep them from the second level. With free run, Perryman and Henley both excel at getting to the ball carrier and getting him to the ground.
The Chargers will get their hard-hitting safeties involved in the run defense as well. Derwin James often takes the role of third linebacker in run defense. Despite being just 215 lbs, James will take on any size ball carrier and more often than not will hold his own.
When the Chargers shut down the opponent’s running game, it is very simple: they win. In 2025, the Chargers are 8-0 when they hold opponents under 100 yards rushing. They are 3-6 when they give up over 100 yards. Digging deeper, they are 0-3 when giving up over 140 yards rushing.
LAC Offense vs NE Defense
Justin Herbert is one of the most talented quarterbacks in the NFL. He has size, arm strength, mobility and intelligence. He stepped in as a rookie after the Miami Dolphins did the Chargers a favor and drafted Tua Tagovailoa one pick before Herbert.
Rookie Omarion Hampton played at UNC for two years with Drake Maye and was a beast, piling up two 1,500 yard seasons on the ground with multiple 15 touchdown seasons. He was drafted in the first round at number 22 overall and had a good start before fracturing his ankle in week five. He returned in December but reinjured his ankle, but has stated he will play Sunday night.
The Chargers have a solid trio of tight ends with rookie Oronde Gadsden, former Seahawk WIll Dissly and former Jet Tyler Conklin. Despite that depth, the Chargers do not run a lot of multi-tight end sets, running the second-fewest in the NFL at just 15.3%. They use three wide receivers 52.1%of the time which is 13th in the NFL (per Sharp Football Analysis).
The Chargers are more of a fullback-centric offense, with fullback Scott Matlock on the field for almost 30% of the snaps. Matlock is fascinating as he was a defensive lineman coming into the NFL and still plays on defense occasionally.
For New England, this game is a test for the defense as other than Josh Allen, they have not faced a quarterback of the caliber of Herbert. While they have held opponents under 200 net passing yards an astounding ten times, some of those quarterbacks they faced were hardly top-tier.
They hope to have Harold Landry (questionable) back opposite K’Lavon Chaisson which should give the much-maligned pass rush a lift. With their strong cornerback trio including Pro Bowler Christian Gonzalez, free agent signing Clayton Davis and slot corner Marcus Jones, the Patriots could unveil a more man-coverage heavy defense.
While much has been made of the run defense, that unit is getting Robert Spillane back and also have Milton Williams who returned from injured reserve on the defensive line last week. While they will not have run-stuffer deluxe Khyiris Tonga but elevated young defensive tackle Leonard Taylor.
Pass Defense:
The Chargers’ pass offense features one of the most porous offensive lines in the NFL. They started training camp with two elite talents at left and right tackle with Rashaan Slater and Joe Alt. Slater was injured before the season began tearing his patellar tendon and being placed on injured reserve.
Alt moved to left tackle and was excellent, but was injured with an ankle sprain in week four and eventually returned but another high ankle sprain in week eight ended his season. They’ve cycled through Jamaree Salyer, Bobby Hart, Trey Pipkins and Austin Deculus due to injuries in that group.
As a result, the offense has been up and down all season. In addition, the interior offensive line was supposed to be the weakness for Los Angeles as former Boston College guard Zion Johnson, drafted in the first round in 2022, veteran Bradley Bozeman, and former Jets and Eagles guard Mekhi Becton have all struggled this season.
That offensive line has simply been offensive for the Chargers. In fact, the advanced metrics hate the Chargers’ offensive line. ProFootballFocus (subscription required) ranks them 31st of 32 teams in pass block grade. ESPN ranked them even worse, as they were dead last in ESPN’s pass block win rate.
Pressure rate allowed has the Chargers at 31st in the NFL at 42.4% (per Sharp Football Analysis). Factoring in the No Blitz Pressure Rate, Los Angeles improves to 30th in the league at 41.4%.
Johnson had his fifth-year option declined by the Chargers and is likely playing his last games in Los Angeles. He was tried at center earlier in his career and struggled. ProFootballFocus ranks him 51st out of 81 guards in the NFL.
Of course, that is better than Becton who ranks 75th among qualifying guards. Becton was a washout high-draft pick for the Jets and resurrected his career in Philadelphia at guard. Whatever he learned there, he seemingly forgot.
Center Bradley Bozeman has probably been the weakest link. The big center was once one of the better centers but age has robbed him of his effectiveness. He played four years in Baltimore and got paid by Carolina before landing in Los Angeles last year. He ranks dead last among centers (40th of 40) with a 51.7 overall PFF grade and was equally bad at pass blocking and run blocking.
Despite all that chaos up front, Justin Herbert has been a super human. Throwing for almost 4,000 yards and 26 touchdowns behind that offensive line is probably one of the better quarterback seasons and a huge reason why the Chargers are considered a tough team to beat even with one of the worst offensive lines.
The Chargers have a lot of receivers that work across the middle and in the intermediate zone. Ladd McConkey’s stats fell off this year after an amazing rookie season where he had 82 receptions for 1,149 yards. His yards per catch dropped from 14.0 to 12.0 this season and had just 789 yards on 66 catches.
Long-time Chargers wide receiver Keenan Allen returned to Los Angeles after an uninspiring year in Chicago. Although no longer the elite wide receiver he was previously with his six 1,000 yard seasons and five seasons of 100 or more receptions for the Chargers, he still is a crafty possession receiver and had 81 catches for 777 yards.
The Chargers spent a first-round draft pick on Quentin Johnson in 2023, one pick after Jaxon Smith-Njigba was grabbed by Seattle and right before Zay Flowers. The former TCU star has size (six-foot-two and 208 lbs) but has yet to translate that into production. He had 51 catches for 735 yards and eight touchdowns, but he has struggled with drops and had just a 46.4% success rate.
Rookie fifth-round draft pick Oronde Gadsden II (yes, his Dad was the Dolphins’ receiver in the late 90s/early 00s) had an early season stretch where he had 24 receptions and 377 yards and two touchdowns over a four game stretch. However, since that stretch he has pretty much been held in check and had less than 300 yards receiving combined in the other 11 games this season.
The back-up tight ends are solid receivers, but Dissly and Conklin had just 18 receptions for 198 yards combined. Tre Harris is the fourth receiver and the rookie second-round draft pick pitched in with 30 receptions for 324 yards and a touchdown in the regular season. He is a tough match-up standing six-foot-three and the former Mississippi receiver was a developmental pick but his play improved throughout the season.
New England is likely to have edge rusher Harold Landry and middle linebacker Robert Spillane again. For all the talk this week about the Patriots weak pass rush they were 19th in the league in pass rush win rate at 35% and Christian Barmore was seventh in the NFL in DT Pass Rush Win Rate and Williams was fourth before he went on injured reserve (per ESPN Advanced Stats).
Sharp Football Analysis rates the Patriots’ Pressure rate as 12th in the league at 38.4%, ahead of the Steelers, Bills, Falcons and Chargers. In No Blitz Pressure Rate they jump to 11th in the league at 35%.
In addition, the Patriots are tied for 8th in Light Box Rate, a big reason why their pass defense improved as 2025 went along and the run defense numbers dropped. The Patriots simply had five or more defensive backs on the field and focused on stopping the pass, not some sudden inability to stop the run.
Not having interior pass rusher Milton Williams back to team with Christian Barmore to attack that weak interior offensive line of the Chargers should be a huge advantage for the Patriots on Sunday night.
Without Landry potentially back on the edge, he and K’Lavon Chaisson will be tasked to win some of these individual match-ups against the weak tackle group of the Chargers. Getting to Herbert and containing him are two different things, as like Josh Allen he is a strong runner and is big and strong and difficult to bring down.
Carlton Davis, Marcus Jones and Christian Gonzalez are all solid in man-coverage and zone. Patriots fans seem spoiled by the good old days of Belichick playing a ton of man coverage. They still had the ninth highest man coverage rate per Sharp Football Analysis. New England should get pressure on Herbert and be able to stay with the Chargers’ receivers.
Run Defense:
The advance metrics are not fans of the Chargers’ blockers in the run game either. Pro Football Focus ranks the Chargers dead last in their run block grade (32nd of 32 teams). They were rated 31st (second to last) in the run block win rate per ESPN.
Per Sharp Football Analysis, the Chargers are 28th in yards before contact per running back rush at less than one yard (0.9). They are 26th in Rush Stuff Rate with the Chargers at 19.8%.
While the toughness and strength of the Chargers’ offensive line has been a topic of conversation on Boston media shows all week, I’m not sure where that is coming from--they clearly haven’t watched the Chargers on tape.
Jim Harbaugh wants his offenses to be built off running the football and play-action, but that was what happened last December against the Jerod Mayo Patriots when the Chargers had Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater at the tackle spots and dominated Keion White, Deatrich Wise, Davon Godchaux, Daniel Ekuale and bunch of guys not on the roster in 2025.
Even when looking at the run game, much of the production comes from a scrambling Justin Herbert. Their one game topping 200 yards on a Thursday Night Football game against Minnesota saw Herbert gain over 60 yards on the ground while the running backs combined for 36 rushes for 145 yards.
Week 13 against the Raiders saw the Chargers top 40 attempts as they played with a lead most of the game. Most of the yardage came on a Kimani Vidal 59-yard touchdown run. Other than that one run, he had 24 rushes for 67 yards in the game.
This isn’t a dominant unit in the running game, that’s the point I’m making. Omarion Hampton is a great talent, no doubt, when healthy and on the field and his return will give the Chargers’ run game a jolt. Kimani Vidal has done yeoman’s work filling in as the second-year sixth-round draft pick from Troy has piled up three 100 yard games, but other than his breakout performance against the Dolphins earlier in the year, the run game has been very inefficient.
Again, this comes back to the offensive line in Los Angeles. Herbert has 498 yards on the ground, running for his life but averages 6.0 yards per rush and is a real weapon when he tucks the ball away.
The Patriots have not been as efficient stopping the run, but with lighter boxes and fewer big bodies the Patriots don’t seem concerned. They are going to point to Christian Barmore, Milton Williams, Cory Durden, and Robert Spillane and some combination of Christian Ellis, Jahlani Tavai, Marte Mapu or Jack Gibbens and tell them they are going to be responsible to stop the run.
Having Williams and Barmore together on the defensive line is a huge boost to the run defense. Cory Durden, a former undrafted free agent who bounced from the Lions to the Rams to the Giants, has been a regular up front all year for the Patriots. He was plucked off the scrap heap before the season but has worked himself into a regular role and has been a steadying influence for the defensive line.
The Patriots will also need more from young veteran Eric Gregory and they already have elevated from the practice squad to help out up front. Leonard Taylor, who was elevated the past two weeks, is back on the game day roster to add valuable depth on the defensive line again this week.
On the edge, with Harold Landry injured, Anfernee Jennings has picked up the slack. While not a pass rushing force like Landry, Jennings has remained in New England through the Belichick and Mayo regimes and been one of the few defensive players kept by Mike Vrabel because he is a violent edge setter and their best run stuffing edge player.
K’Lavon Chaisson can set the edge as well, and rookie undrafted free agent Elijah Ponder has earned his playing time by being a force in the running game on the outside.
For all the negativity about the New England run defense, they should have an advantage over the Chargers and their weak offensive line, even with Los Angeles getting Hampton back. The biggest threat running the ball for Los Angeles is Herbert. That spy role will likely fall to Spillane if the Patriots are in man-coverage on third down and he will need to step back in ready to make big plays in the open field.
Stopping the Chargers’ rushing attack early can make them one-dimensional and give the edge to the Patriots as they tee off on the weak tackles and soft interior of the Chargers’ offensive line. While they will miss Tonga in the middle of the defense, getting Spillane back should be a huge boost for the New England run defense.
Other Factors:
The Patriots should have a significant advantage on special teams with Marcus Jones a second-team All-Pro returner back to return punts. The Chargers mixed and matched at kick and punt returns all season with a dozen players having had at least one kick or punt return. None of them have done enough to wrestle the job away and it has gone back to disappointing returner Derius Davis.
As a team, the Chargers rank 25th in kickoff returns with 24.74 yards per return average. On punt returns, they are 28th with 6.48 yards per return average and among the league leaders is throwing a hand up in surrender and calling a fair catch with 25 per The Football Database..
Davis handles kicks and punts and former Titans running back Hassan Haskins expected to be the second kick returner. A change-up for the playoffs could see shifty slot receiver Ladd McConkey back to return punts and lead running back Omarion Hampton returning kicks, as both have experience in the role.
New England is tenth in kickoff return defense allowing just 25.34 yards per kick return and they are no longer the worst but rank 23rd in punt coverage allowing 12.05 yards per return.
The Chargers coverage units are as bad as their return units. They are 30th in punt return coverage allowing 305 yards on 21 returns for a 14.52 average. Basically, every punt returner they’ve faced they’ve been at Marcus Jones level against the Chargers’ return unit. What happens this week with the real Marcus Jones back deep to return?
New England has the number one ranked punt return unit (17.29 yards per return) in the NFL. Marcus Jones has handled all the punt returns and rarely gets an opportunity as opponents have taken to punting short and high or out of bounds to keep the ball out of his hands.
The most dangerous returner and Pro Bowl snub, Jones had an 87-yard return against Carolina for a touchdown and almost broke another as he took the next one 61 yards. Against the Giants, he broke open the floodgates with a 94-yard touchdown return.
The Patriots are middle of the pack in kickoff returns, averaging 25.45 yards per return. Antonio Gibson was fantastic in the kick return game and had a 90-yard touchdown return against Miami in the week two match-up that turned the tide of that game. However, since he went to injured reserve the Patriots have had TreVeyon Henderson, Kyle Williams, Terrell Jennnings, Rhamondre Stevenson and Efton Chism as the returner with mixed results.
With the injuries at wide receiver, New England didn’t risk Chism and Williams on special teams and D’Ernest Johnson handled the kickoff returns last week. If Boutte is healthy, Chism and Williams may return to kick returns, or recently promoted from the practice squad Jeremiah Webb could play a role as he ripped off an impressive 59-yard kickoff return in the second preseason game.
Back to the Chargers, their kickoff return coverage has not been as horrible as their punt coverage, but it’s not much better. The Chargers are 26th and allow 27.68 yards per kick return.
In the kicking game, New England Patriots rookie sixth-round draft pick kicker Andy Borregales has settled in after a rough start to his rookie season. He missed two extra points in week two and missed a field goal in week one. He had a kick blocked (not his fault, it was the blocking) but came back and nailed a career-long 59-yard field goal before halftime last week.
Punter Bryce Baringer still had an inconvenient wobbler every once in a while but overall has been solid. He had a great game against Miami with some booming punts and overall has averaged 47.4 yards per punt with only four touchbacks and 21 of 51 punts downed inside the 20 yard line. Rookie long snapper, Julian Ashby, has been fine but has had some poor snaps on occasion in the punting game.
The Chargers have had issues with the long snapping that has affected some kicks by Cameron Dicker (aka, DIcker the Kicker). Josh Harris is the long snapper and a 14-year veteran, but he started the season on injured reserve after making a tackle on special teams in the preseason. He had been replaced by Rick Lovato, another 14-year veteran who retired when Harris returned.
DIcker was on a hot streak all season and those bad snaps by Harris caught up to them in the past two weeks of the season as they lost to Houston and Denver. He missed a huge extra point that would have cut the lead to three against Houston in the fourth quarter. He missed a 32-yard field goal with a poor snap before halftime as well.
The Patriots have a huge advantage on the Chargers in special teams. Kick and punt returns should swing New England’s way and there is a chance for a big play there. Every yard of field position is vital in the postseason, and the Patriots have a chance to swing it to their advantage on a cool Sunday night in Foxboro.
Game Pick:
The Patriots, at 14-3 and winners of the AFC East and second seed in the AFC, are only 3.5 point favorites at home against a wildly inconsistent Los Angeles Chargers team that benched their starters to rest last week and travel cross-country and play outside in New England in January out of the comfort of their dome in sunny southern California.
The respect for franchise quarterback Justin Herbert is what keeps the bettors keeping the point spread so low.
Herbert is special, but so is the second-year quarterback for New England. Herbert is on the road in the playoffs, where he is 0-2 in his career. The Chargers were stomped 32-12 last year in Houston as Herbert threw four interceptions and was sacked four times putting up a 40.9 quarterback rating.
In 2022, the Chargers and Herbert went into Jacksonville in the Wild Card round and had a 27-0 lead in the second quarter. The Jaguars roared back and won on a last second field goal 31-30 as Herbert and the Chargers collapsed in the second half.
The Patriots have made their run to the playoffs by not getting beat against inferior opponents (other than that rough start to the season in September) and there’s no reason to expect them to take their foot off the pedal here now that they are in the playoffs.
The Chargers have a good defense, but this is not the Texans or Broncos coming into Foxboro. The Chargers came east and lost to the Giants in September, escaped by the skin of their teeth against Miami and Tennessee in close games, and then got smacked 35-6 by the Jaguars in November.
The Chargers overall were 5-3 on the road and were the seventh seed for a reason: that offensive line is terrible, the defense is good but not a shutdown unit, and the special teams have serious issues.
New England has to stop the Chargers running game early and be able to move the ball on the ground against the Chargers’ defense to open up the windows in their zone defense. I don’t expect New England to blow out the Chargers, but I firmly believe that Drake Maye going against the Los Angeles secondary will be enough to get New England the win.
Herbert should make some plays to keep it close for a while, but the Patriots should have their way with the weak Los Angeles offensive line and pull away in the second half to win handily.
#7 seed CHARGERS 17 @ #2 seed PATRIOTS 30
Spread: Patriots -3.5: Patriots
Moneyline: Patriots -192, Chargers +160: Patriots
O/U: 46.5: Over
Comments